Chiba vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 04:00

Projected 88-88

Projected total 176.2

Final 86-80

24-16 23-21 22-21 17-22

Position#14

Record8-9

FormLWWWW

Points / game92.5

Allowed / game96.0

Chiba 🏆

51%

49%

■ CHIB 51%■ NAGA 49%

Pythia win probability

Nagasaki

Position#21

Record6-11

FormWLLLL

Points / game77.1

Allowed / game81.9

B League· LaLa arena TOKYO-BAY

Other2026-27

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Chiba and Nagasaki face off in the B League on 14 November 2026, a matchup that feels almost evenly matched as each side carries a slim edge in the win probabilities. Chiba's season record of 8-9 shows 92.5 points scored and 96.0 points allowed per game, while Nagasaki's 6-11 record reflects 77.1 points scored and 81.9 points allowed. At home, Chiba has gone 3-6, averaging 89.8 points and conceding 98.3, and in their last five they won four of five games, including a 106-94 victory at home over Osaka and a 111-103 win away against Saga. Nagasaki's road record is 2-7, with 76.3 points scored and 83.0 points allowed, and they have won only one of their last five, suffering defeats to Alvark, Sendai and Hiroshima D. Their head-to-head history shows Nagasaki leading 6-2, most recently beating Chiba 102-93 on 16 May 2026. Pythia projects a 51% chance for Chiba to win, a 49% chance for Nagasaki, and a balanced 88-88 scoreline, with a projected total of 176.2 points and a 5% chance of overtime. The model favours Chiba, and the game will likely hinge on the recent momentum swings of both teams.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Chiba winWon

51.1%fair 1.96

Best odds2.32

Implied41.1%

Edge+10.0pp

Nagasaki winLost

48.9%fair 2.05

Best odds1.62

Implied58.9%

Edge-10.0pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:45 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Chiba

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormChiba

Date

Competition

Shimane

#18

97-78

+19

97avg 79

H17/10

B League

Tokyo Sunrockers

64-107

107

-43

51avg 79

H19/10

B League

Kyoto

#10

79-102

102

-23

68avg 79

H21/10

B League

Osaka

#26

87-65

+22

87avg 79

A25/10

B League

Toyama

#11

93-100

100

-7

87avg 79

H31/10

B League

Toyama

#11

78-83

-5

67avg 79

H01/11

B League

Altiri Chiba

#19

89-87 OT

no box

H06/11

B League

Saga

#25

111-103

111

103

no box

A08/11

B League

Osaka

#26

106-94 OT

106

+12

no box

H10/11

B League

Shiga

#16

90-87

no box

A12/11

B League

23-16

23-30

22-15

29-17

25-26

11-22

12-32

16-27

21-26

19-28

24-28

15-20

23-20

29-15

20-14

15-16

34-27

19-30

11-24

29-19

19-20

10-26

23-19

26-18

20-19

24-19

23-15

10-24

34-20

24-21

25-26

28-36

24-23

23-15

19-25

27-30

11-23

30-20

21-26

28-18

180.0Avg total

89.4Scored

90.6Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (17)	92.5	96.0	188.5	-3.5	47%
Season at home (9)	89.8	98.3	188.1	-8.6	33%
Season away (8)	95.6	93.4	189.0	+2.2	62%
Last 10 (10)	89.4	90.6	180.0	-1.2	60%
Last 5 (5)	94.8	90.8	185.6	+4.0	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	89.4	99.5	188.9	-10.1	30%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	85.1	87.4	172.5	-2.2	50%
vs Weaker (12)	94.0	82.7	176.7	+11.3	83%

This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Nagasaki

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormNagasaki

Date

Competition

Altiri Chiba

#19

65-82

-17

53avg 82

H19/10

B League

Saga

#25

84-66

+18

79avg 82

A21/10

B League

Shiga

#16

85-89

-4

83avg 82

A23/10

B League

Ryukyu

#13

101-84

101

+17

100avg 82

H26/10

B League

Macau Hou Chon

#11

97-76

+21

no box

A28/10

EASL

Kobe

#23

81-71

+10

80avg 82

A31/10

B League

Kobe

#23

87-90

-3

86avg 82

A01/11

B League

Hiroshima D.

73-80

-7

no box

A06/11

B League

Sendai

87-107

107

-20

no box

H09/11

B League

Alvark

73-82

-9

no box

A11/11

B League

17-15

16-27

21-18

11-22

24-20

24-15

17-17

19-14

14-21

29-16

9-27

33-25

24-15

26-20

28-22

23-27

30-21

25-25

14-15

28-15

11-19

22-19

25-19

23-14

17-24

22-17

34-22

14-27

18-20

23-16

18-21

14-23

33-28

26-30

14-28

14-21

24-22

16-11

20-23

13-26

166.0Avg total

83.3Scored

82.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (17)	77.1	81.9	159.1	-4.8	35%
Season at home (8)	78.0	80.8	158.8	-2.8	50%
Season away (9)	76.3	83.0	159.3	-6.7	22%
Last 10 (10)	83.3	82.7	166.0	+0.6	40%
Last 5 (5)	80.2	86.0	166.2	-5.8	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	75.7	86.6	162.4	-10.9	18%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	79.5	78.7	158.2	+0.8	50%
vs Weaker (13)	84.8	73.7	158.5	+11.2	85%

This opponent (Chiba) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 169.5Actual: Under 169.5

Over 169.5

64.9%

@ 1.65+6.6pp

Under 169.5

35.1%

@ 2.32-6.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.65

Bet365

1.64

Marathon Be

1.54

BetVictor

1.53

Betano

1.52

Under

Betano

2.32

BetVictor

2.30

Bet365

2.12

1xBet

2.10

Over/Under 174.75 · main lineActual: Under 174.75

Over 174.75

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under 174.75

no forecast

@ 1.79

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.81

Under

1xBet

1.79

Over/Under 179.5Actual: Under 179.5

Over 179.5

41.2%

@ 2.42+2.8pp

Under 179.5

58.8%

@ 1.57-2.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.42

BetVictor

2.40

Bet365

2.25

Under

Bet365

1.57

BetVictor

1.50

Betano

1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Chiba total 83.5Actual: Chiba over 83.5

Over 83.5

67.4%

@ 1.60+9.7pp

Under 83.5

32.6%

@ 2.22-9.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.60

Bet365

1.58

1xBet

1.50

Under

Bet365

2.22

Betano

2.15

1xBet

2.05

Chiba total 87.5 · main lineActual: Chiba under 87.5

Over 87.5

52.6%

@ 2.07+8.0pp

Under 87.5

47.4%

@ 1.83-8.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.07

1xBet

1.94

Bet365

1.83

Under

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.65

1xBet

1.56

Chiba total 91.5Actual: Chiba under 91.5

Over 91.5

37.4%

@ 2.80+4.4pp

Under 91.5

62.6%

@ 1.50-4.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.80

1xBet

2.75

Betano

2.37

Under

Betano

1.50

Bet365

1.38

1xBet

1.30

Nagasaki total 85.5Actual: Nagasaki under 85.5

Over 85.5

58.9%

@ 1.86-1.1pp

Under 85.5

41.1%

@ 2.30+1.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.86

Betano

1.53

1xBet

1.44

Under

Betano

2.30

1xBet

2.19

Bet365

1.80

Nagasaki total 89.5 · main lineActual: Nagasaki under 89.5

Over 89.5

43.7%

@ 1.98-4.0pp

Under 89.5

56.3%

@ 1.83+4.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.98

Marathon Be

1.91

BetVictor

1.91

1xBet

1.83

Bet365

1.83

Under

Bet365

1.83

BetVictor

1.80

Marathon Be

1.74

Betano

1.72

1xBet

1.63

Nagasaki total 93.5Actual: Nagasaki under 93.5

Over 93.5

29.4%

@ 2.56-6.0pp

Under 93.5

70.6%

@ 1.44+6.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.56

Betano

2.52

Under

Betano

1.44

1xBet

1.34

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Chiba -5Actual: Chiba -5

CHIB -5

34.6%

@ 2.38-4.9pp

NAGA +5

65.4%

@ 1.58+4.9pp

Best 5 market prices

CHIB

Pinnacle

2.38

Bet365

2.27

NAGA

Bet365

1.58

Pinnacle

1.55

Spread Chiba -2 · main lineActual: Chiba -2

CHIB -2

45.9%

@ 1.87-4.7pp

NAGA +2

54.1%

@ 1.91+4.7pp

Best 5 market prices

CHIB

Pinnacle

1.87

Bet365

1.83

NAGA

Pinnacle

1.91

Bet365

1.86

Marathon Be

1.43

Spread Chiba +1Actual: Chiba +1

CHIB +1

52.6%

@ 2.24+10.4pp

NAGA -1

47.4%

@ 1.64-10.4pp

Best 5 market prices

CHIB

Pinnacle

2.24

Bet365

2.22

Marathon Be

2.07

1xBet

2.07

NAGA

Pinnacle

1.64

1xBet

1.61

Bet365

1.58

Marathon Be

1.57

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

ChibaNagasaki

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.5
Last 30 (30)	24.0	21.8	45.7	+2.2	53%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	23.7	20.4	44.1	+3.3	53%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	24.3	23.5	47.8	+0.8	54%	69%
Last 10 (10)	23.4	22.0	45.4	+1.4	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	21.6	21.0	42.6	+0.6	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	23.4	25.2	48.6	-1.8	20%	80%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	21.6	20.2	41.9	+1.4	50%	25%
vs Weaker (12)	26.0	19.9	45.9	+6.1	83%	50%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 44.5
Last 30 (30)	20.3	19.4	39.6	+0.9	60%	27%
Last 30 at home (18)	20.9	18.8	39.7	+2.1	67%	22%
Last 30 away (12)	19.3	20.2	39.6	-0.9	50%	33%
Last 10 (10)	21.2	20.5	41.7	+0.7	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.6	22.6	43.2	-2.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	19.2	20.7	39.9	-1.5	36%	36%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	16.2	19.0	35.2	-2.8	33%	0%
vs Weaker (13)	23.1	18.4	41.5	+4.7	92%	31%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	23.2	21.6	44.9	+1.6	60%	60%
Last 30 at home (17)	21.3	22.6	43.9	-1.3	47%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	25.8	20.4	46.2	+5.4	77%	62%
Last 10 (10)	21.2	22.6	43.8	-1.4	50%	70%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	20.2	42.4	+2.0	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	23.0	23.7	46.7	-0.7	40%	70%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	19.6	24.8	44.4	-5.1	25%	50%
vs Weaker (12)	25.8	17.8	43.7	+8.0	100%	58%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	20.8	19.6	40.4	+1.1	60%	37%
Last 30 at home (18)	20.4	20.8	41.2	-0.4	50%	44%
Last 30 away (12)	21.3	17.8	39.2	+3.5	75%	25%
Last 10 (10)	22.9	19.6	42.5	+3.3	70%	50%
Last 5 (5)	21.8	18.6	40.4	+3.2	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	21.3	19.6	40.9	+1.6	64%	45%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	20.8	19.3	40.2	+1.5	67%	33%
vs Weaker (13)	20.3	19.8	40.1	+0.5	54%	31%

ChibaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Shimane

#18

46-46

H17/10

B League

Tokyo Sunrockers

36-48

-12

H19/10

B League

Kyoto

#10

40-54

-14

H21/10

B League

Osaka

#26

52-35

+17

A25/10

B League

Toyama

#11

53-57

-4

H31/10

B League

Toyama

#11

29-46

-17

H01/11

B League

Altiri Chiba

#19

44-38

H06/11

B League

Saga

#25

58-41

+17

A08/11

B League

Osaka

#26

47-38

H10/11

B League

Shiga

#16

41-43

-2

A12/11

B League

89.2Avg total

44.6Scored

44.6Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 87.5
Last 30 (30)	47.2	43.4	90.6	+3.8	57%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	45.0	43.0	88.0	+2.0	53%	47%
Last 30 away (13)	50.1	43.9	94.0	+6.2	62%	62%
Last 10 (10)	44.6	44.6	89.2	+0.0	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	43.8	41.2	85.0	+2.6	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	46.4	48.9	95.3	-2.5	30%	70%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	41.2	45.0	86.2	-3.8	25%	25%
vs Weaker (12)	51.8	37.8	89.6	+14.1	100%	58%

This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Altiri Chiba

#19

33-42

-9

H19/10

B League

Saga

#25

48-35

+13

A21/10

B League

Shiga

#16

43-37

A23/10

B League

Ryukyu

#13

50-35

+15

H26/10

B League

Macau Hou Chon

#11

55-46

A28/10

EASL

Kobe

#23

33-38

-5

A31/10

B League

Kobe

#23

39-41

-2

A01/11

B League

Hiroshima D.

41-36

A06/11

B League

Sendai

59-58

H09/11

B League

Alvark

40-33

A11/11

B League

84.2Avg total

44.1Scored

40.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 87.5
Last 30 (30)	41.0	39.0	80.0	+2.0	60%	17%
Last 30 at home (18)	41.3	39.6	80.9	+1.7	56%	22%
Last 30 away (12)	40.7	38.1	78.8	+2.6	67%	8%
Last 10 (10)	44.1	40.1	84.2	+4.0	70%	20%
Last 5 (5)	42.4	41.2	83.6	+1.2	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	40.5	40.4	80.8	+0.1	64%	9%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	37.0	38.3	75.3	-1.3	33%	0%
vs Weaker (13)	43.4	38.2	81.5	+5.2	69%	31%

This opponent (Chiba) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Chiba win

CHIB win

no forecast

@ 2.15

NAGA win

no forecast

@ 1.79

1st half Spread Chiba -2.5 · main lineActual: Chiba -2.5

CHIB -2.5

no forecast

@ 2.50

NAGA +2.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half Over/Under 87.5 · main lineActual: Under 87.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.92

Under

no forecast

@ 1.90

Chiba 1st half total 43 · main lineActual: Chiba over 43

Over

no forecast

@ 1.83

Under

no forecast

@ 1.83

Nagasaki 1st half total 44 · main lineActual: Nagasaki under 44

Over

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half: CHIB + total 87.5

CHIB & over

no forecast

@ 4.20

CHIB & under

no forecast

@ 4.25

1st half: Draw + total 87.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 26.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 26.00

1st half: NAGA + total 87.5

NAGA & over

no forecast

@ 3.20

NAGA & under

no forecast

@ 3.30

1st half Over/Under 86.25Actual: Under 86.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.73

Under

no forecast

@ 1.90

1st half Over/Under 89Actual: Under 89

Over

no forecast

@ 2.09

Under

no forecast

@ 1.72

1st half Spread Chiba -3.5Actual: Chiba -3.5

CHIB -3.5

no forecast

@ 2.80

NAGA +3.5

no forecast

@ 1.55

1st half Spread Chiba -1.5Actual: Chiba -1.5

CHIB -1.5

no forecast

@ 2.35

NAGA +1.5

no forecast

@ 1.83

1st half Over/Under 84.5Actual: Under 84.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.65

Under

no forecast

@ 2.15

1st half Spread Chiba -4.5Actual: Chiba -4.5

CHIB -4.5

no forecast

@ 2.78

NAGA +4.5

no forecast

@ 1.60

1st half Spread Chiba -0.5Actual: Chiba -0.5

CHIB -0.5

no forecast

@ 1.91

NAGA +0.5

no forecast

@ 1.95

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Chiba (regulation)

CHIB

no forecast

@ 2.22

Draw

no forecast

@ 17.50

NAGA

no forecast

@ 1.75

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	19.7	20.8	40.5	-1.0	43%	47%
Last 30 at home (17)	18.9	20.7	39.6	-1.8	41%	35%
Last 30 away (13)	20.8	20.8	41.7	+0.0	46%	62%
Last 10 (10)	20.0	22.4	42.4	-2.4	40%	50%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	22.2	44.4	+0.0	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	19.7	24.0	43.7	-4.3	30%	60%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	19.1	18.9	38.0	+0.2	50%	38%
vs Weaker (12)	20.2	19.3	39.5	+0.8	50%	42%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.25
Last 30 (30)	19.7	20.4	40.1	-0.8	40%	43%
Last 30 at home (18)	20.2	19.9	40.1	+0.3	50%	44%
Last 30 away (12)	18.8	21.2	40.1	-2.4	25%	42%
Last 10 (10)	20.0	21.2	41.2	-1.2	40%	40%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	22.6	44.8	-0.4	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	17.6	23.2	40.8	-5.5	9%	45%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	21.2	20.3	41.5	+0.8	67%	50%
vs Weaker (13)	20.7	18.2	38.8	+2.5	54%	38%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 43.75
Last 30 (30)	20.8	23.2	44.0	-2.4	30%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	20.8	21.8	42.6	-1.0	35%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	20.8	25.0	45.8	-4.2	23%	69%
Last 10 (10)	22.3	22.5	44.8	-0.2	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	23.8	25.2	49.0	-1.4	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	19.9	22.5	42.4	-2.6	20%	50%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	21.9	20.6	42.5	+1.2	50%	50%
vs Weaker (12)	20.9	25.5	46.4	-4.6	25%	58%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 43.75
Last 30 (30)	19.7	19.7	39.3	+0.0	53%	20%
Last 30 at home (18)	19.3	19.3	38.6	+0.1	50%	22%
Last 30 away (12)	20.2	20.2	40.4	-0.1	58%	17%
Last 10 (10)	19.2	21.4	40.6	-2.2	40%	20%
Last 5 (5)	15.6	22.2	37.8	-6.6	20%	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	17.5	22.2	39.6	-4.7	36%	18%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	21.3	20.0	41.3	+1.3	67%	17%
vs Weaker (13)	20.8	17.4	38.2	+3.4	62%	23%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 85
Last 30 (30)	40.6	44.0	84.5	-3.4	37%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	39.7	42.5	82.2	-2.8	29%	41%
Last 30 away (13)	41.7	45.8	87.5	-4.2	46%	69%
Last 10 (10)	42.3	44.9	87.2	-2.6	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	46.0	47.4	93.4	-1.4	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)	39.6	46.5	86.1	-6.9	30%	70%
vs Similar ◀ (8)	41.0	39.5	80.5	+1.5	50%	38%
vs Weaker (12)	41.1	44.8	85.9	-3.8	33%	50%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 85
Last 30 (30)	39.3	40.1	79.4	-0.8	47%	33%
Last 30 at home (18)	39.6	39.2	78.7	+0.4	56%	33%
Last 30 away (12)	39.0	41.5	80.5	-2.5	33%	33%
Last 10 (10)	39.2	42.6	81.8	-3.4	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	37.8	44.8	82.6	-7.0	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)	35.1	45.4	80.5	-10.3	18%	36%
vs Similar ◀ (6)	42.5	40.3	82.8	+2.2	50%	50%
vs Weaker (13)	41.5	35.5	77.0	+5.9	69%	23%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

CHIB win + total 174.5

🔒 Pro

NAGA win + total 174.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: CHIB leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: NAGA leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (CHIB:NAGA): CHIB wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Chiba +11.5	84.7%	1.35	Betano 1.35	-	-	-	-	+16.8pp	Won
Chiba +7	74.1%	1.54	Pinnacle 1.60	Bet365 1.52	Marathon Bet 1.50	-	-	+15.0pp	Won
Chiba +6.5	71.8%	1.53	Pinnacle 1.65	Bet365 1.55	Betano 1.53	Marathon Bet 1.50	BetVictor 1.50	+14.5pp	Won
Chiba +7.5	74.9%	1.46	Pinnacle 1.56	Bet365 1.50	Marathon Bet 1.48	Betano 1.47	BetVictor 1.42	+14.3pp	Won
Nagasaki over 81.5	73.0%	1.55	Betano 1.55	-	-	-	-	+13.8pp	Lost
Nagasaki +10.5	81.2%	1.35	Betano 1.35	-	-	-	-	+13.3pp	Won
Chiba +9.5	80.2%	1.35	BetVictor 1.42	Betano 1.36	1xBet 1.27	-	-	+12.7pp	Won
Chiba +12.5	86.6%	1.25	Betano 1.31	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	+12.7pp	Won
Chiba +10.5	82.5%	1.31	Betano 1.31	-	-	-	-	+12.6pp	Won
Chiba over 78.5	82.6%	1.31	Bet365 1.31	-	-	-	-	+11.6pp	Won
Chiba over 80.5	77.1%	1.38	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.41	1xBet 1.31	-	-	+11.5pp	Won
Nagasaki over 73.5	91.8%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+11.3pp	Won
Chiba +6	70.9%	1.57	1xBet 1.59	Bet365 1.58	Pinnacle 1.58	Marathon Bet 1.53	-	+11.1pp	Won
Chiba over 76.5	87.2%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+11.0pp	Won
Nagasaki +8.5	76.0%	1.42	1xBet 1.51	Betano 1.32	-	-	-	+10.8pp	Won
Nagasaki +9.5	78.7%	1.36	1xBet 1.44	Betano 1.28	-	-	-	+10.7pp	Won
Chiba +13.5	88.3%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+10.5pp	Won
Chiba +8.5	77.7%	1.36	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.41	BetVictor 1.34	1xBet 1.29	-	+10.4pp	Won
Chiba over 74.5	90.8%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+10.3pp	Won
Chiba over 82.5	70.9%	1.50	Bet365 1.57	Betano 1.50	1xBet 1.43	-	-	+9.9pp	Won
Chiba over 81.5	74.1%	1.41	Bet365 1.43	Betano 1.42	1xBet 1.37	-	-	+9.7pp	Won
Nagasaki over 71.5	94.4%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+9.4pp	Won
Chiba over 79.5	80.0%	1.27	Bet365 1.31	1xBet 1.24	-	-	-	+9.2pp	Won
Chiba over 77.5	85.0%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+8.8pp	Won
Chiba over 72.5	93.6%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Chiba over 75.5	89.1%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+8.6pp	Won
Nagasaki over 69.5	96.3%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Won
Chiba +18.5	94.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Won
Nagasaki under 98.5	84.4%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+8.3pp	Won
Nagasaki under 96.5	79.5%	1.30	Bet365 1.30	-	-	-	-	+8.1pp	Won
Over 166.5	71.4%	1.45	Betano 1.45	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Lost
Chiba +23.5	97.5%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Won
Over 165.5	73.4%	1.40	Betano 1.40	-	-	-	-	+7.8pp	Won
Chiba over 70.5	95.7%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Won
Chiba +22.5	97.0%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Won
Chiba +17.5	93.4%	1.09	Bet365 1.09	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Won
Chiba over 73.5	92.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+7.3pp	Won
Chiba over 71.5	94.7%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Won
Nagasaki over 80.5	76.2%	1.34	Betano 1.47	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	+6.8pp	Lost
Nagasaki +7.5	73.1%	1.39	1xBet 1.58	Betano 1.38	Bet365 1.22	-	-	+6.5pp	Won
Nagasaki under 94.5	73.8%	1.34	Bet365 1.40	1xBet 1.29	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Won
Nagasaki +12.5	85.4%	1.18	Betano 1.26	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	+6.2pp	Won
Nagasaki under 93.5	70.6%	1.39	Betano 1.44	1xBet 1.34	-	-	-	+6.0pp	Won
Nagasaki +11.5	83.4%	1.20	Betano 1.30	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	+5.4pp	Won
Nagasaki over 70.5	95.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+4.7pp	Won
Nagasaki +22.5	96.7%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+4.5pp	Won
Nagasaki over 72.5	93.2%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.8pp	Won
Nagasaki +21.5	96.1%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.3pp	Won
Nagasaki +17.5	92.8%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+3.2pp	Won
Overtime: no	94.6%	1.02	Betano 1.02	-	-	-	-	+2.9pp	Won
Nagasaki over 74.5	90.3%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Nagasaki +16.5	91.7%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.0pp	Won
Nagasaki over 76.5	86.5%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+1.4pp	Won
Nagasaki over 78.5	81.8%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Chiba under 99.5	86.0%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.4pp	Won
Chiba under 97.5	81.3%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-0.1pp	Won
Chiba under 98.5	83.8%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	-1.8pp	Won
Chiba under 95.5	75.9%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-1.9pp	Won
Chiba under 96.5	78.7%	1.14	Bet365 1.14	-	-	-	-	-2.7pp	Won
Chiba under 94.5	72.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	-5.0pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Chibatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Chiba: 86.8 points a game scored

🏀🏀46%

🏀🏀🏀36%

🏀19%

🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 46% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 36% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 19% of the points

League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game

49%

34%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.4	19.8	50.3%	53.6%	39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	31.1	10.3	33.1%	32.9%	30.9
🏀 Free throws	21.4	16.3	76.2%	73.8%	16.3

They take 70.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 79.5 points a game scored

🏀🏀48%

🏀🏀🏀39%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 48% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game

49%

34%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.8	18.9	54.3%	53.6%	37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.8	10.3	35.8%	32.9%	30.9
🏀 Free throws	14.1	10.8	76.6%	73.8%	10.8

They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	45.5	24.2	53.2%	53.6%	48.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.2	10.1	31.4%	32.9%	30.3
🏀 Free throws	19.8	14.9	75.3%	73.8%	14.9

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.1	20.3	49.4%	53.6%	40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.6	8.4	31.6%	32.9%	25.2
🏀 Free throws	16.4	11.9	72.6%	73.8%	11.9

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.6	20.8	53.8%	53.6%	41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.3	10.3	34.0%	32.9%	30.9
🏀 Free throws	19.3	14.8	76.7%	73.8%	14.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	33.9	19.1	56.3%	53.6%	38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.0	10.3	34.4%	32.9%	30.9
🏀 Free throws	17.4	13.3	76.6%	73.8%	13.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.7	21.7	52.2%	53.6%	43.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.4	10.2	31.4%	32.9%	30.5
🏀 Free throws	18.2	13.4	73.6%	73.8%	13.4

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Chiba

WWWWLLWLLW

Nagasaki

LLLLWWWLWL

#14

League position

#21

-7.1

Net rating

+2.1

90.5

Offensive rating

93.2

97.6

Defensive rating

91.1

50.0%

Effective FG%

54.0%

50.6%

Opp. effective FG%

48.6%

14.7%

Turnover %

15.9%

0.30

Free-throw rate

0.22

33.1%

3-point %

35.8%

68.8%

Assist %

65.8%

60%

Form (last 10/10)

40%

Profile

■ Chiba ■ Nagasaki

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Chiba wins

Nagasaki wins

Date	Game	Score
16/05/26	Nagasaki v Chiba	102-93
15/05/26	Nagasaki v Chiba	82-74
28/12/25	Nagasaki v Chiba	93-77
27/12/25	Nagasaki v Chiba	86-79
27/10/24	Nagasaki v Chiba	75-79
26/10/24	Nagasaki v Chiba	50-82
09/10/23	Nagasaki v Chiba	89-86
08/10/23	Nagasaki v Chiba	91-82

Chibalast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
12/11/26	A	Shiga	90-87
10/11/26	H	Osaka	106-94 OT
08/11/26	A	Saga	111-103
06/11/26	H	Altiri Chiba	89-87 OT
01/11/26	H	Toyama	78-83
31/10/26	H	Toyama	93-100
25/10/26	A	Osaka	87-65
21/10/26	H	Kyoto	79-102
19/10/26	H	Tokyo Sunrockers	64-107
17/10/26	H	Shimane	97-78

Nagasakilast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
11/11/26	A	Alvark	73-82
09/11/26	H	Sendai	87-107
06/11/26	A	Hiroshima D.	73-80
01/11/26	A	Kobe	87-90
31/10/26	A	Kobe	81-71
28/10/26	A	Macau Hou Chon	97-76
26/10/26	H	Ryukyu	101-84
23/10/26	A	Shiga	85-89
21/10/26	A	Saga	84-66
19/10/26	H	Altiri Chiba	65-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Chiba

B League 2026-27

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWW	47%
Home	LLLWW	33%
Away	WLWWW	62%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	17	9	8
Win %	47%	33%	62%
Points / game	92.5	89.8	95.6
Allowed / game	96.0	98.3	93.4
Point differential	-3.5	-8.6	+2.2
Avg total	188.5	188.1	189.0
Over 174.75	71%	67%	75%
Win by 10+	18%	22%	12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	60% (5)	50% (2)	67% (3)
Overtime %	24%	33%	12%

Nagasaki

B League 2026-27

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLLL	35%
Home	WWLWL	50%
Away	LWLLL	22%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	17	8	9
Win %	35%	50%	22%
Points / game	77.1	78.0	76.3
Allowed / game	81.9	80.8	83.0
Point differential	-4.8	-2.8	-6.7
Avg total	159.1	158.8	159.3
Over 174.75	18%	25%	11%
Win by 10+	29%	38%	22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	100% (1)	0% (2)
Overtime %	6%	0%	11%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Diamond Dolphins	13	12	1	92%	92.6	76.7	+15.9
2	Hiroshima D.	15	13	2	87%	90.4	80.9	+9.5
3	Sendai	18	14	4	78%	88.6	80.2	+8.4
4	SeaHorses Mikawa	13	10	3	77%	90.4	80.7	+9.7
5	Alvark	17	13	4	76%	92.6	82.3	+10.3
6	Gunma	16	12	4	75%	82.8	73.8	+9.1
7	NeoPhoenix	11	8	3	73%	87.5	82.7	+4.8
8	Tokyo Sunrockers	17	11	6	65%	89.9	80.3	+9.6
9	Levanga Hokkaido	16	10	6	62%	96.7	94.6	+2.1
10	Kyoto	16	9	7	56%	84.3	79.2	+5.1
11	Toyama	16	9	7	56%	83.4	87.0	-3.6
12	Ibaraki Robots	18	9	9	50%	83.7	79.8	+3.9
13	Ryukyu	16	8	8	50%	83.4	81.6	+1.8
14	Chiba	17	8	9	47%	92.5	96.0	-3.5
15	Utsunomiya Brex	15	7	8	47%	81.9	83.6	-1.7
16	Yokohama	16	7	9	44%	77.7	82.9	-5.2
17	Altiri Chiba	17	7	10	41%	80.5	84.6	-4.1
18	Shimane	15	6	9	40%	83.5	81.9	+1.6
19	Shiga	15	6	9	40%	85.7	88.9	-3.2
20	Shinshu	17	6	11	35%	83.9	86.8	-2.9
21	Nagasaki	17	6	11	35%	77.1	81.9	-4.8
22	Brave Thunders	17	5	12	29%	79.2	83.9	-4.8
23	Kobe	16	4	12	25%	79.9	87.3	-7.4
24	Akita	17	4	13	24%	83.4	91.5	-8.2
25	Saga	15	1	14	7%	77.8	94.9	-17.1
26	Osaka	16	1	15	6%	70.1	90.9	-20.9

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Chiba	24	23	22	17	86
Nagasaki	16	21	21	22	80

← all games of the day

Chiba vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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