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Fresno State vs San Jose State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 82-68
0-0 45-34 0-0 37-34
Position#275
Record12-17
FormWLLLL
Points / game73.3
Allowed / game72.8
Fresno State 🏆
USA
vs
San Jose State
USA
Position#349
Record8-21
FormLWLWL
Points / game71.3
Allowed / game77.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Fresno State v San Jose State
03 Mar 2026
FRES82
SAN 68
04 Feb 2025
FRES91
SAN 94
16 Jan 2024
FRES85
SAN 82
07 Feb 2023
FRES70
SAN 62
09 Mar 2022
FRES69
SAN 67
11 Jan 2022
FRES79
SAN 59
10 Jan 2021
FRES80
SAN 65
08 Jan 2021
FRES79
SAN 64
04 Jan 2020
FRES79
SAN 64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fresno State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
San Jose State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Fresno StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grand Canyon
#95
L
57-68
57
68
-11
H25/01
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
79-62
79
62
+17
A31/01
NCAA
UNLV
#192
W
98-96
98
96
+2
H04/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A08/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A11/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
93-63
93
63
+30
H14/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
82-92
82
92
-10
A18/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
78-80
78
80
-2
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
53-69
53
69
-16
H01/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
19-26
0-0
38-42
0-0
44-39
0-0
35-23
0-0
49-50
0-0
49-46
0-0
28-28
0-0
31-41
0-0
35-47
0-0
43-44
0-0
45-33
0-0
48-30
0-0
40-42
0-0
42-50
0-0
44-32
0-0
34-48
0-0
39-32
0-0
31-42
0-0
23-28
0-0
30-41
151.1Avg total
74.7Scored
76.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)73.372.8146.1+0.641%
Season at home (18)74.769.9144.6+4.856%
Season away (11)71.077.5148.5-6.518%
Last 10 (10)74.776.4151.1-1.730%
Last 5 (5)75.275.6150.8-0.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)68.375.7144.0-7.322%
vs Similar (6)81.779.0160.7+2.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)77.861.8139.6+16.080%
This opponent (San Jose State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Jose StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wyoming
#148
L
62-66
62
66
-4
A24/01
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
58-89
58
89
-31
H28/01
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
80-90
80
90
-10
H01/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
57-65
57
65
-8
A08/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A11/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
79-94
79
94
-15
H14/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
87-71
87
71
+16
H18/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
69-84
69
84
-15
A21/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
86-80
86
80
+6
A25/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
73-85
73
85
-12
H28/02
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
23-31
0-0
39-35
0-0
33-36
0-0
25-53
0-0
35-41
0-0
45-49
0-0
29-30
0-0
28-35
0-0
41-45
0-0
34-37
0-0
36-39
0-0
43-55
0-0
47-32
0-0
40-39
0-0
31-36
0-0
38-48
0-0
42-37
0-0
44-43
0-0
37-42
0-0
36-43
153.2Avg total
72.6Scored
80.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)71.377.7149.1-6.428%
Season at home (17)73.975.4149.3-1.541%
Season away (12)67.881.0148.8-13.28%
Last 10 (10)72.680.6153.2-8.020%
Last 5 (5)78.882.8161.6-4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)67.780.4148.1-12.79%
vs Similar (4)78.271.8150.0+6.575%
vs Weaker (3)88.766.0154.7+22.7100%
This opponent (Fresno State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -6.5-6.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -1.5-1.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: -6.5-6.5
Fresno StateSan Jose State
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Fresno StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grand Canyon
#95
L
19-26
19
26
-7
H25/01
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A31/01
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H04/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
D
28-28
28
28
+0
A08/02
NCAA
Utah State
#20
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A11/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H14/02
NCAA
Wyoming
#148
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A18/02
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
W
44-32
44
32
+12
H22/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A25/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H01/03
NCAA
72.3Avg total
36.6Scored
35.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.734.267.9-0.543%-
Last 30 at home (18)33.932.166.0+1.850%-
Last 30 away (12)33.437.370.8-3.933%-
Last 10 (10)36.635.772.3+0.940%-
Last 5 (5)38.233.471.6+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)30.234.164.3-3.922%-
vs Similar (6)38.736.375.0+2.367%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)38.633.071.6+5.680%-
This opponent (San Jose State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
San Jose StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wyoming
#148
L
23-31
23
31
-8
A24/01
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H28/01
NCAA
New Mexico
#50
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H01/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
29-30
29
30
-1
A08/02
NCAA
UNLV
#192
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A11/02
NCAA
Grand Canyon
#95
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H14/02
NCAA
Nevada
#86
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H18/02
NCAA
Boise State
#101
L
31-36
31
36
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Air Force
#371
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A25/02
NCAA
Colorado State
#90
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H28/02
NCAA
72.3Avg total
35.4Scored
36.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.938.173.0-3.123%-
Last 30 at home (18)36.836.673.3+0.228%-
Last 30 away (12)32.240.372.5-8.217%-
Last 10 (10)35.436.972.3-1.520%-
Last 5 (5)38.637.275.8+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)33.339.572.8-6.314%-
vs Similar (4)39.537.076.5+2.525%-
vs Weaker (3)41.027.368.3+13.7100%-
This opponent (Fresno State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Fresno State wins
3
San Jose State wins
DateGameScore
07/01/26San Jose State v Fresno State55-70
08/03/25San Jose State v Fresno State92-68
05/02/25Fresno State v San Jose State91-94 OT
07/02/24San Jose State v Fresno State57-69
17/01/24Fresno State v San Jose State85-82
08/02/23Fresno State v San Jose State70-62
11/01/23San Jose State v Fresno State74-64
10/03/22Fresno State v San Jose State69-67 OT
02/02/22San Jose State v Fresno State43-73
12/01/22Fresno State v San Jose State79-59
Fresno Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HBoise State53-69
25/02/26AColorado State70-74
22/02/26HNew Mexico78-80
18/02/26AWyoming82-92
14/02/26HAir Force93-63
11/02/26AUtah State78-91
08/02/26ANevada59-69
04/02/26HUNLV98-96
31/01/26AAir Force79-62
25/01/26HGrand Canyon57-68
San Jose Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26HColorado State73-85
25/02/26AAir Force86-80
21/02/26ABoise State69-84
18/02/26HNevada87-71
14/02/26HGrand Canyon79-94
11/02/26AUNLV75-82
08/02/26AColorado State57-65
01/02/26HNew Mexico80-90
28/01/26HBoise State58-89
24/01/26AWyoming62-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fresno State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL41%
HomeLWWLL56%
AwayWLLLL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291811
Win %41%56%18%
Points / game73.374.771.0
Allowed / game72.869.977.5
Point differential+0.6+4.8-6.5
Avg total146.1144.6148.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%28%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)44% (9)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
San Jose State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL28%
HomeLLLWL41%
AwayLLLLW8%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291712
Win %28%41%8%
Points / game71.373.967.8
Allowed / game77.775.481.0
Point differential-6.4-1.5-13.2
Avg total149.1149.3148.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Mountain West conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah State2924583%83.369.7+13.6
2 New Mexico2922776%80.769.7+11.0
3 San Diego State2819968%79.270.5+8.7
4 Colorado State29191066%77.071.1+5.9
5 Nevada29191066%76.072.0+4.0
6 Grand Canyon29181162%74.868.7+6.1
7 Boise State29181162%78.173.2+4.9
8 Wyoming29161355%76.872.8+4.0
9 UNLV29151452%79.678.9+0.7
10 Fresno State29121741%73.372.8+0.6
11 San Jose State2982128%71.377.7-6.4
12 Air Force2932610%62.279.9-17.6
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Fresno State04503782
San Jose State03403468
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