Geelong vs Ballarat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 15 Jun 2019

Tip-off: 09:15

Final 62-66

14-18 21-20 12-17 15-11

Position#4

Record9-5

FormLWWWW

Points / game83.0

Allowed / game79.9

Geelong

Ballarat 🏆

Position#1

Record10-2

FormLWWWL

Points / game93.9

Allowed / game75.6

NBL 1

Other2019

Meetings · Geelong v Ballarat

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Geelong winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Ballarat winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Geelong

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

BA CoE

#15

73-72

A25/04

NBL 1

Kilsyth

78-95

-17

H27/04

NBL 1

Waverley

#10

92-62

+30

A05/05

NBL 1

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

104-103

104

103

H11/05

NBL 1

Bendigo Braves

80-96

-16

A12/05

NBL 1

Melbourne Tigers

66-72

-6

A18/05

NBL 1

Diamond Valley

#11

87-81

H19/05

NBL 1

Dandenong

74-69

H25/05

NBL 1

Hobart Huskies

81-70

+11

A31/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

94-85

A01/06

NBL 1

21-27

10-18

26-9

16-18

23-28

25-26

17-24

13-17

34-17

21-19

12-12

25-14

24-22

30-24

24-23

26-34

22-31

22-19

17-29

19-17

22-16

15-17

17-16

12-23

16-22

29-17

28-19

14-23

18-18

17-16

18-12

21-23

20-23

30-19

17-18

14-10

29-21

17-18

24-16

24-30

163.4Avg total

82.9Scored

80.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (14)	83.0	79.9	162.9	+3.1	64%
Season at home (7)	86.3	83.6	169.9	+2.7	71%
Season away (7)	79.7	76.3	156.0	+3.4	57%
Last 10 (10)	82.9	80.5	163.4	+2.4	70%
Last 5 (5)	80.4	75.4	155.8	+5.0	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)	79.2	92.4	171.6	-13.2	0%
vs Similar (12)	82.2	84.2	166.4	-2.1	58%
vs Weaker (13)	91.0	78.8	169.8	+12.2	92%

This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Ballarat

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Dandenong

80-73

A13/04

NBL 1

Knox

#13

90-68

+22

A27/04

NBL 1

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

126-63

126

+63

A04/05

NBL 1

Kilsyth

87-71

+16

A11/05

NBL 1

Eltham

#17

104-80

104

+24

A12/05

NBL 1

BA CoE

#15

77-80 OT

-3

H18/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

94-67

+27

H25/05

NBL 1

Southern Sabres

#18

100-66

100

+34

A26/05

NBL 1

Ringwood

#16

101-79

101

+22

H01/06

NBL 1

Frankston

80-87

-7

A02/06

NBL 1

22-13

34-18

13-19

11-23

18-7

28-16

24-24

20-21

31-17

35-18

34-20

26-8

26-23

18-16

12-15

31-17

27-20

21-20

29-19

27-21

27-16

15-16

17-21

14-20

24-15

28-20

22-10

20-22

28-19

29-15

22-11

21-21

22-17

23-18

25-20

31-24

21-25

20-27

21-18

18-17

167.3Avg total

93.9Scored

73.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (12)	93.9	75.6	169.5	+18.3	83%
Season at home (4)	91.5	78.0	169.5	+13.5	75%
Season away (8)	95.1	74.4	169.5	+20.8	88%
Last 10 (10)	93.9	73.4	167.3	+20.5	80%
Last 5 (5)	90.4	75.8	166.2	+14.6	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	81.0	87.0	168.0	-6.0	50%
vs Similar (3)	100.3	91.0	191.3	+9.3	67%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	91.9	78.1	170.0	+13.8	78%

This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

GeelongBallarat

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.0	22.6	45.7	+0.4	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.2	21.1	43.3	+1.1	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	23.9	24.1	48.0	-0.3	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.9	22.5	45.4	+0.4	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.0	20.0	41.0	+1.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)	19.6	28.8	48.4	-9.2	0%	-
vs Similar (12)	22.4	23.2	45.6	-0.8	33%	-
vs Weaker (13)	24.9	19.8	44.7	+5.2	77%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.6	20.7	44.4	+2.9	67%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	23.9	19.7	43.6	+4.1	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.4	21.6	45.1	+1.8	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	24.6	17.2	41.8	+7.4	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	24.4	18.4	42.8	+6.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	19.2	26.0	45.2	-6.8	25%	-
vs Similar (3)	25.0	23.7	48.7	+1.3	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	24.2	19.4	43.7	+4.8	74%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.7	20.3	41.0	+0.4	57%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	21.8	19.6	41.4	+2.2	67%	-
Last 30 away (15)	19.6	21.0	40.6	-1.4	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.6	19.3	40.9	+2.3	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	17.4	39.0	+4.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)	15.6	21.6	37.2	-6.0	20%	-
vs Similar (12)	21.7	21.2	42.9	+0.4	67%	-
vs Weaker (13)	21.8	18.9	40.7	+2.8	62%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.1	19.9	43.1	+3.2	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.8	18.5	41.3	+4.3	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.4	21.2	44.6	+2.2	69%	-
Last 10 (10)	25.1	18.4	43.5	+6.7	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.0	19.2	42.2	+3.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	19.8	24.0	43.8	-4.2	50%	-
vs Similar (3)	23.0	17.3	40.3	+5.7	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	23.7	19.6	43.3	+4.2	74%	-

GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

BA CoE

#15

31-45

-14

A25/04

NBL 1

Kilsyth

48-54

-6

H27/04

NBL 1

Waverley

#10

55-36

+19

A05/05

NBL 1

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

54-46

H11/05

NBL 1

Bendigo Braves

44-50

-6

A12/05

NBL 1

Melbourne Tigers

37-33

A18/05

NBL 1

Diamond Valley

#11

45-39

H19/05

NBL 1

Dandenong

35-34

H25/05

NBL 1

Hobart Huskies

50-42

A31/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

46-39

A01/06

NBL 1

86.3Avg total

44.5Scored

41.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	43.7	42.9	86.7	+0.8	63%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	44.0	40.7	84.7	+3.3	73%	-
Last 30 away (15)	43.5	45.1	88.6	-1.7	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	44.5	41.8	86.3	+2.7	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	42.6	37.4	80.0	+5.2	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)	35.2	50.4	85.6	-15.2	20%	-
vs Similar (12)	44.1	44.4	88.5	-0.3	58%	-
vs Weaker (13)	46.7	38.7	85.4	+8.0	85%	-

This opponent (Ballarat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

BallaratLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Dandenong

56-31

+25

A13/04

NBL 1

Knox

#13

46-23

+23

A27/04

NBL 1

Albury-Wodonga Bandits

#12

66-35

+31

A04/05

NBL 1

Kilsyth

44-39

A11/05

NBL 1

Eltham

#17

48-40

A12/05

NBL 1

BA CoE

#15

42-32

+10

H18/05

NBL 1

NW Tasmania

#14

52-35

+17

H25/05

NBL 1

Southern Sabres

#18

57-34

+23

A26/05

NBL 1

Ringwood

#16

45-35

+10

H01/06

NBL 1

Frankston

41-52

-11

A02/06

NBL 1

85.3Avg total

49.7Scored

35.6Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	46.8	40.7	87.4	+6.1	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	46.6	38.2	84.9	+8.4	86%	-
Last 30 away (16)	46.9	42.8	89.7	+4.1	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	49.7	35.6	85.3	+14.1	90%	-
Last 5 (5)	47.4	37.6	85.0	+9.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	39.0	50.0	89.0	-11.0	25%	-
vs Similar (3)	48.0	41.0	89.0	+7.0	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	48.0	39.0	87.0	+9.0	78%	-

This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.2	19.4	40.7	+1.8	53%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.2	19.6	42.8	+3.6	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	19.3	19.3	38.5	+0.0	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.0	17.8	37.8	+2.2	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.8	16.2	37.0	+4.6	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)	22.6	20.2	42.8	+2.4	60%	-
vs Similar (12)	19.8	18.5	38.2	+1.2	58%	-
vs Weaker (13)	22.1	20.0	42.1	+2.1	46%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.5	17.8	40.3	+4.7	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.6	17.5	40.1	+5.1	71%	-
Last 30 away (16)	22.4	18.1	40.5	+4.4	69%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.9	17.7	39.6	+4.2	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.4	16.0	37.4	+5.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	20.5	13.5	34.0	+7.0	75%	-
vs Similar (3)	26.0	20.7	46.7	+5.3	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	22.4	18.2	40.6	+4.2	70%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.5	20.9	41.4	-0.3	40%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	20.9	21.2	42.1	-0.3	27%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.2	20.5	40.7	-0.3	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.4	20.9	39.3	-2.5	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.0	21.8	38.8	-4.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)	21.4	21.8	43.2	-0.4	40%	-
vs Similar (12)	18.3	21.3	39.7	-3.0	33%	-
vs Weaker (13)	22.2	20.1	42.3	+2.2	46%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.6	21.3	42.9	+0.3	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	22.6	22.7	45.3	-0.1	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	20.8	20.1	40.9	+0.6	56%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.9	19.4	41.3	+2.5	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.8	20.8	41.6	+0.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	21.5	23.5	45.0	-2.0	50%	-
vs Similar (3)	23.3	23.7	47.0	-0.3	67%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	21.4	20.7	42.0	+0.7	52%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	41.8	40.3	82.1	+1.5	50%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	44.1	40.8	84.9	+3.3	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	39.5	39.8	79.3	-0.3	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	38.4	38.7	77.1	-0.3	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	37.8	38.0	75.8	-0.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)	44.0	42.0	86.0	+2.0	40%	-
vs Similar (12)	38.1	39.8	77.9	-1.8	42%	-
vs Weaker (13)	44.3	40.1	84.4	+4.2	62%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	44.1	39.1	83.2	+5.0	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	45.1	40.2	85.4	+4.9	79%	-
Last 30 away (16)	43.2	38.2	81.4	+5.0	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.8	37.1	80.9	+6.7	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	42.2	36.8	79.0	+5.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	42.0	37.0	79.0	+5.0	75%	-
vs Similar (3)	49.3	44.3	93.7	+5.0	100%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)	43.8	38.8	82.6	+5.0	65%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Geelong wins

Ballarat wins

Date	Game	Score
07/07/17	Ballarat v Geelong	107-84
31/03/17	Geelong v Ballarat	100-76
02/07/16	Ballarat v Geelong	78-91
08/07/15	Ballarat v Geelong	77-93
11/04/15	Geelong v Ballarat	87-89

Geelonglast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
01/06/19	A	NW Tasmania	94-85
31/05/19	A	Hobart Huskies	81-70
25/05/19	H	Dandenong	74-69
19/05/19	H	Diamond Valley	87-81
18/05/19	A	Melbourne Tigers	66-72
12/05/19	A	Bendigo Braves	80-96
11/05/19	H	Albury-Wodonga Bandits	104-103
05/05/19	A	Waverley	92-62
27/04/19	H	Kilsyth	78-95
25/04/19	A	BA CoE	73-72

Ballaratlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
02/06/19	A	Frankston	80-87
01/06/19	H	Ringwood	101-79
26/05/19	A	Southern Sabres	100-66
25/05/19	H	NW Tasmania	94-67
18/05/19	H	BA CoE	77-80 OT
12/05/19	A	Eltham	104-80
11/05/19	A	Kilsyth	87-71
04/05/19	A	Albury-Wodonga Bandits	126-63
27/04/19	A	Knox	90-68
13/04/19	A	Dandenong	80-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Geelong

NBL 1 2019

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWW	64%
Home	WLWWW	71%
Away	WLLWW	57%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	14	7	7
Win %	64%	71%	57%
Points / game	83.0	86.3	79.7
Allowed / game	79.9	83.6	76.3
Point differential	+3.1	+2.7	+3.4
Avg total	162.9	169.9	156.0
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	29%	29%	29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	75% (4)	100% (2)	50% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Ballarat

NBL 1 2019

Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWWL	83%
Home	WLWW	75%
Away	WWWWL	88%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	12	4	8
Win %	83%	75%	88%
Points / game	93.9	91.5	95.1
Allowed / game	75.6	78.0	74.4
Point differential	+18.3	+13.5	+20.8
Avg total	169.5	169.5	169.5
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	58%	50%	62%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (1)	0% (1)	-
Overtime %	8%	25%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Ballarat	12	10	2	83%	93.9	75.6	+18.3
2	Nunawading	12	9	3	75%	91.7	80.9	+10.8
3	Melbourne Tigers	12	8	4	67%	86.5	84.6	+1.9
4	Geelong	14	9	5	64%	83.0	79.9	+3.1
5	Kilsyth	12	7	5	58%	88.0	83.4	+4.6
6	Frankston	14	8	6	57%	90.1	88.5	+1.6
7	Waverley	11	6	5	55%	86.5	90.4	-3.8
8	Dandenong	14	7	7	50%	90.0	86.9	+3.1
9	BA CoE	15	7	8	47%	82.7	83.7	-1.1
10	Bendigo Braves	13	6	7	46%	83.9	82.4	+1.5
11	Hobart Huskies	12	5	7	42%	88.5	91.4	-2.9
12	NW Tasmania	12	5	7	42%	87.3	91.2	-3.9
13	Eltham	12	5	7	42%	86.8	90.8	-4.0
14	Albury-Wodonga Bandits	12	5	7	42%	90.4	96.4	-6.0
15	Diamond Valley	13	5	8	38%	84.9	88.2	-3.2
16	Knox	11	4	7	36%	79.8	82.6	-2.8
17	Ringwood	12	4	8	33%	89.5	93.4	-3.9
18	Southern Sabres	13	3	10	23%	87.6	101.2	-13.5

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Geelong	14	21	12	15	62
Ballarat	18	20	17	11	66

← all games of the day

Geelong vs Ballarat Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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