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Houston Rockets vs Toronto Raptors Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 113-99
29-29 29-20 28-34 27-16
Position#8
Record39-24
FormLWLWL
Points / game114.6
Allowed / game109.9
vs
Position#11
Record36-26
FormLWLLW
Points / game113.9
Allowed / game111.6
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Toronto Raptors
01 Dec 2026
HOU v TOR
upcoming
10 Mar 2026
HOU113
TOR99
09 Feb 2025
HOU94
TOR87
02 Feb 2024
HOU135
TOR106
03 Feb 2023
HOU111
TOR117
10 Feb 2022
HOU120
TOR139
22 Mar 2021
HOU117
TOR99
05 Apr 2020
HOU v TOR
upcoming
25 Jan 2019
HOU121
TOR119
14 Nov 2017
HOU113
TOR129
23 Nov 2016
HOU102
TOR115
25 Mar 2016
HOU112
TOR109
21 Feb 2015
HOU98
TOR76
11 Nov 2013
HOU110
TOR104
27 Nov 2012
HOU117
TOR101
28 Feb 2012
HOU88
TOR85
31 Dec 2010
HOU114
TOR105
01 Mar 2010
HOU116
TOR92
03 Mar 2009
HOU107
TOR97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toronto Raptors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
105-101
105
101
+4
95avg 108
A20/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
106-108
106
108
-2
102avg 108
A22/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
125-105
125
105
+20
134avg 108
H24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
128-97
128
97
+31
128avg 108
H26/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
113-108
113
108
+5
108avg 108
A27/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
105-115
105
115
-10
94avg 108
A28/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
123-118
123
118
+5
119avg 108
A03/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
113-115 OT
113
115
-2
104avg 108
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
106-99
106
99
+7
104avg 108
H07/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
120-145
120
145
-25
110avg 108
A09/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-33
29-19
27-26
25-23
21-27
33-26
37-22
15-33
38-22
30-25
32-28
25-30
33-22
44-28
31-26
20-21
22-29
21-24
38-27
32-28
28-32
24-19
31-34
22-30
26-30
34-21
34-29
29-38
20-30
27-21
35-30
19-20
27-34
30-22
20-26
29-17
33-32
24-37
37-41
26-35
225.5Avg total
114.4Scored
111.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)114.6109.9224.5+4.762%
Season at home (29)113.5107.0220.4+6.572%
Season away (34)115.6112.3227.9+3.253%
Last 10 (10)114.4111.1225.5+3.360%
Last 5 (5)113.4118.4231.8-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)101.5108.5210.0-7.050%
vs Similar ◀ (13)105.2108.0213.2-2.846%
vs Weaker (15)114.0109.2223.2+4.867%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
122-104
122
104
+18
117avg 107
H08/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
95-113
95
113
-18
87avg 107
H12/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
110-101
110
101
+9
100avg 107
A20/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
122-94
122
94
+28
118avg 107
A22/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
107-116
107
116
-9
98avg 107
H25/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
107-110
107
110
-3
94avg 107
H26/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
134-125
134
125
+9
132avg 107
A01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
95-111
95
111
-16
85avg 107
H04/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
107-115
107
115
-8
98avg 107
A06/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
122-92
122
92
+30
121avg 107
H08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
25-28
44-26
32-30
19-29
33-38
22-27
21-19
25-23
28-22
34-33
23-23
22-27
38-24
32-22
30-21
32-25
19-35
29-38
27-18
29-30
30-27
31-21
17-32
25-33
36-31
37-28
36-33
31-32
27-36
24-19
13-24
27-31
27-24
22-35
31-25
36-29
21-15
31-22
34-26
220.2Avg total
112.1Scored
108.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (62)113.9111.6225.5+2.358%
Season at home (32)113.4111.8225.2+1.653%
Season away (30)114.4111.4225.9+3.063%
Last 10 (10)112.1108.1220.2+4.050%
Last 5 (5)113.0110.6223.6+2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)102.3113.6215.9-11.314%
vs Similar ◀ (14)113.9113.1227.1+0.850%
vs Weaker (9)119.7103.7223.3+16.0100%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +1.3+1.3
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.9-1.9Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: +1.3+1.3
Houston RocketsToronto Raptors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A20/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A22/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-50
77
50
+27
H26/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A27/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
52-51
52
51
+1
A28/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
60-51
60
51
+9
A03/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
57-56
57
56
+1
H07/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
57-69
57
69
-12
A09/03
NBA
110.1Avg total
56.8Scored
53.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.554.2108.8+0.347%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.354.1110.4+2.244%-
Last 30 away (14)52.554.4106.9-1.950%-
Last 10 (10)56.853.3110.1+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)54.655.6110.2-1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)47.053.5100.5-6.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)52.654.3106.9-1.746%-
vs Weaker (15)57.254.3111.5+2.953%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H08/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
52-67
52
67
-15
H12/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
53-45
53
45
+8
A20/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
60-51
60
51
+9
A22/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
51-60
51
60
-9
H25/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
59-57
59
57
+2
H26/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
61-64
61
64
-3
A01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H04/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A06/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
57-44
57
44
+13
H08/03
NBA
111.0Avg total
55.1Scored
55.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.256.0113.2+1.153%-
Last 30 at home (17)57.558.3115.8-0.853%-
Last 30 away (13)56.753.1109.8+3.654%-
Last 10 (10)55.155.9111.0-0.840%-
Last 5 (5)57.857.6115.4+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)55.059.6114.6-4.643%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)58.456.4114.8+2.157%-
vs Weaker (9)56.952.8109.7+4.156%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 114.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.0 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.232.0
58.0%
54.8%64.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.311.2
35.8%
35.8%33.6
🏀 Free throws20.816.8
80.8%
78.1%16.8
They take 86.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 112.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.330.7
53.6%
54.8%61.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.910.6
35.5%
35.8%31.8
🏀 Free throws23.818.9
79.4%
78.1%18.9
They take 87.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
LWLWLWWWLW
Toronto Raptors
WLLWLLWWLW
#8
League position
#11
+3.3
Net rating
+4.0
114.5
Offensive rating
112.0
111.2
Defensive rating
108.0
56.4%
Effective FG%
53.4%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
54.2%
16.2%
Turnover %
11.7%
32.7%
Off. rebound %
25.9%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.8%
3-point %
35.5%
58.1%
Assist %
65.6%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence114.5 · 112.0Defence111.2 · 108.0Shooting56.4% · 53.4%3-point %35.8% · 35.5%Ball care16.2% · 11.7%Off. rebounds32.7% · 25.9%Free throws0.24 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Toronto Raptors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Houston Rockets wins
5
Toronto Raptors wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26ASan Antonio Spurs120-145
07/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers106-99
06/03/26HGolden State Warriors113-115 OT
03/03/26AWashington Wizards123-118
28/02/26AMiami Heat105-115
27/02/26AOrlando Magic113-108
26/02/26HSacramento Kings128-97
24/02/26HUtah Jazz125-105
22/02/26ANew York Knicks106-108
20/02/26ACharlotte Hornets105-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HDallas Mavericks122-92
06/03/26AMinnesota Timberwolves107-115
04/03/26HNew York Knicks95-111
01/03/26AWashington Wizards134-125
26/02/26HSan Antonio Spurs107-110
25/02/26HOklahoma City Thunder107-116
22/02/26AMilwaukee Bucks122-94
20/02/26AChicago Bulls110-101
12/02/26HDetroit Pistons95-113
08/02/26HIndiana Pacers122-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL62%
HomeLWWLW72%
AwayLWLWL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games632934
Win %62%72%53%
Points / game114.6113.5115.6
Allowed / game109.9107.0112.3
Point differential+4.7+6.5+3.2
Avg total224.5220.4227.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%28%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won52% (21)60% (10)45% (11)
Overtime %11%7%15%
Toronto Raptors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW58%
HomeLLLLW53%
AwayLWWWL63%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games623230
Win %58%53%63%
Points / game113.9113.4114.4
Allowed / game111.6111.8111.4
Point differential+2.3+1.6+3.0
Avg total225.5225.2225.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%34%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)50% (10)100% (2)
Overtime %6%9%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder64501478%118.6108.1+10.5
2 San Antonio Spurs62451773%118.5111.4+7.1
3 Detroit Pistons64461872%117.0109.6+7.4
4 Boston Celtics64432167%114.5106.9+7.6
5 Minnesota Timberwolves64402462%118.6114.5+4.2
6 Houston Rockets63392462%114.6109.9+4.7
7 Los Angeles Lakers63392462%115.8114.8+1.1
8 Cleveland Cavaliers65402562%118.7114.6+4.2
9 New York Knicks64392561%116.7110.9+5.8
10 Denver Nuggets65392660%120.3116.6+3.6
11 Phoenix Suns63372659%112.4110.6+1.9
12 Toronto Raptors62362658%113.9111.6+2.3
13 Miami Heat65372857%120.8116.7+4.1
14 Orlando Magic61342756%115.0113.4+1.6
15 Philadelphia 76ers65353054%115.9116.3-0.3
16 Atlanta Hawks65343152%117.8117.2+0.6
17 Golden State Warriors64323250%115.1114.0+1.1
18 Los Angeles Clippers64323250%112.8112.3+0.5
19 Charlotte Hornets65323349%115.9112.5+3.4
20 Portland Trail Blazers65313448%115.3118.0-2.6
21 Milwaukee Bucks63273643%111.1115.8-4.7
22 Chicago Bulls64263841%115.4119.8-4.4
23 Memphis Grizzlies64234136%115.9118.3-2.4
24 Dallas Mavericks65214432%113.0117.8-4.9
25 New Orleans Pelicans66214532%115.5120.2-4.7
26 Utah Jazz65204531%117.4124.9-7.5
27 Brooklyn Nets65174826%107.0115.9-8.9
28 Washington Wizards64164825%112.6123.7-11.1
29 Indiana Pacers64154923%111.4120.0-8.6
30 Sacramento Kings65155023%110.6121.1-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Houston Rockets29292827113
Toronto Raptors2920341699
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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