PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 20:30
Final 115-105
32-28 19-24 34-31 30-22
Position#17
Record31-28
FormWWWLL
Points / game120.1
Allowed / game117.2
vs
Position#8
Record37-21
FormWLWWW
Points / game114.7
Allowed / game109.1
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Houston Rockets
16 Nov 2026
MIA v HOU
upcoming
28 Feb 2026
MIA115
HOU105
21 Mar 2025
MIA98
HOU102
08 Jan 2024
MIA120
HOU113
10 Feb 2023
MIA97
HOU95
07 Mar 2022
MIA123
HOU106
19 Apr 2021
MIA113
HOU91
03 Nov 2019
MIA129
HOU100
20 Dec 2018
MIA101
HOU99
07 Feb 2018
MIA101
HOU109
17 Jan 2017
MIA109
HOU103
01 Nov 2015
MIA109
HOU89
04 Nov 2014
MIA91
HOU108
16 Mar 2014
MIA113
HOU104
06 Feb 2013
MIA114
HOU108
22 Apr 2012
MIA97
HOU88
27 Mar 2011
MIA125
HOU119
09 Feb 2010
MIA99
HOU66
24 Nov 2008
MIA98
HOU107
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
134-91
134
91
+43
136avg 108
H01/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
115-127
115
127
-12
107avg 108
H04/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
96-98
96
98
-2
86avg 108
A07/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
132-101
132
101
+31
132avg 108
A08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
111-115
111
115
-4
102avg 108
H10/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
123-111
123
111
+12
111avg 108
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
128-97
128
97
+31
128avg 108
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
136-120
136
120
+16
140avg 108
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
117-128
117
128
-11
113avg 108
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
117-124
117
124
-7
110avg 108
A27/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-13
28-27
39-22
33-29
23-33
27-34
31-31
34-29
29-15
30-23
15-36
22-24
37-33
37-19
33-23
25-26
32-26
20-35
30-24
29-30
31-25
27-30
38-30
27-26
29-16
28-35
30-24
41-22
39-33
34-35
39-26
24-26
29-30
29-33
35-26
24-39
35-36
22-37
34-26
26-25
232.1Avg total
120.9Scored
111.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)120.1117.2237.3+2.953%
Season at home (28)122.0117.6239.6+4.561%
Season away (31)118.4116.8235.2+1.545%
Last 10 (10)120.9111.2232.1+9.750%
Last 5 (5)124.2116.0240.2+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)112.4114.6227.0-2.240%
vs Similar ◀ (12)118.8120.6239.4-1.842%
vs Weaker (13)125.4114.0239.4+11.469%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#5
L
93-114
93
114
-21
76avg 108
H05/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
99-109
99
109
-10
91avg 108
H06/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
112-106
112
106
+6
104avg 108
A07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
102-95
102
95
+7
96avg 108
H11/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
102-105
102
105
-3
98avg 108
H12/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
105-101
105
101
+4
95avg 108
A20/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
106-108
106
108
-2
102avg 108
A22/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
125-105
125
105
+20
134avg 108
H24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
128-97
128
97
+31
128avg 108
H26/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
113-108
113
108
+5
108avg 108
A27/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-18
25-31
21-36
30-29
26-29
23-32
26-30
24-18
28-28
18-24
34-22
32-32
27-26
24-26
27-20
24-23
29-22
27-24
20-24
26-35
24-33
29-19
27-26
25-23
21-27
33-26
37-22
15-33
38-22
30-25
32-28
25-30
33-22
44-28
31-26
20-21
22-29
21-24
38-27
32-28
213.3Avg total
108.5Scored
104.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (58)114.7109.1223.8+5.664%
Season at home (27)113.8107.0220.7+6.874%
Season away (31)115.5111.0226.5+4.555%
Last 10 (10)108.5104.8213.3+3.760%
Last 5 (5)115.4103.8219.2+11.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)101.5108.5210.0-7.050%
vs Similar ◀ (13)104.5103.2207.7+1.462%
vs Weaker (15)114.5108.7223.3+5.867%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +5.8+5.8Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +5.6+5.6Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -1.9-1.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +5.8+5.8Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +5.6+5.6Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -1.9-1.9
Miami HeatHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
62-40
62
40
+22
H01/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
50-67
50
67
-17
H04/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
59-38
59
38
+21
A07/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
74-52
74
52
+22
A08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
52-61
52
61
-9
H10/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
57-73
57
73
-16
A27/02
NBA
116.8Avg total
60.0Scored
56.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.757.6119.3+4.160%-
Last 30 at home (13)61.958.8120.8+3.154%-
Last 30 away (17)61.556.6118.1+4.965%-
Last 10 (10)60.056.8116.8+3.260%-
Last 5 (5)60.662.0122.6-1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)61.053.0114.0+8.080%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)60.059.8119.8+0.242%-
vs Weaker (13)63.557.3120.8+6.269%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#5
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H05/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
49-61
49
61
-12
H06/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
46-52
46
52
-6
A07/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H11/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
56-46
56
46
+10
H12/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
53-52
53
52
+1
A20/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A22/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-50
77
50
+27
H26/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A27/02
NBA
105.4Avg total
53.9Scored
51.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.953.4108.3+1.547%-
Last 30 at home (17)57.553.6111.1+3.847%-
Last 30 away (13)51.553.1104.5-1.646%-
Last 10 (10)53.951.5105.4+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)59.051.0110.0+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)47.053.5100.5-6.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)53.053.2106.2-0.246%-
vs Weaker (15)57.553.5111.1+4.053%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 120.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.029.2
54.1%
54.8%58.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.814.4
35.3%
35.8%43.2
🏀 Free throws25.319.3
76.3%
78.1%19.3
They take 94.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 108.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.727.6
55.5%
54.8%55.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.112.7
38.4%
35.8%38.1
🏀 Free throws19.215.2
79.2%
78.1%15.2
They take 82.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWWWLWLLW
Houston Rockets
WWWLWLWWLL
#17
League position
#8
+9.3
Net rating
+3.8
115.7
Offensive rating
112.6
106.4
Defensive rating
108.8
53.6%
Effective FG%
56.3%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
11.9%
Turnover %
16.4%
28.0%
Off. rebound %
27.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.23
35.3%
3-point %
38.4%
68.6%
Assist %
59.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 112.6Defence106.4 · 108.8Shooting53.6% · 56.3%3-point %35.3% · 38.4%Ball care11.9% · 16.4%Off. rebounds28.0% · 27.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Miami Heat wins
1
Houston Rockets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26APhiladelphia 76ers117-124
25/02/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-128
22/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies136-120
21/02/26AAtlanta Hawks128-97
12/02/26ANew Orleans Pelicans123-111
10/02/26HUtah Jazz111-115
08/02/26AWashington Wizards132-101
07/02/26ABoston Celtics96-98
04/02/26HAtlanta Hawks115-127
01/02/26HChicago Bulls134-91
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/26AOrlando Magic113-108
26/02/26HSacramento Kings128-97
24/02/26HUtah Jazz125-105
22/02/26ANew York Knicks106-108
20/02/26ACharlotte Hornets105-101
12/02/26HLos Angeles Clippers102-105
11/02/26HLos Angeles Clippers102-95
07/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder112-106
06/02/26HCharlotte Hornets99-109
05/02/26HBoston Celtics93-114

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL53%
HomeLWLLW61%
AwayWWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games592831
Win %53%61%45%
Points / game120.1122.0118.4
Allowed / game117.2117.6116.8
Point differential+2.9+4.5+1.5
Avg total237.3239.6235.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%32%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)67% (9)40% (5)
Overtime %2%4%0%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW64%
HomeLWLWW74%
AwayWWWLW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games582731
Win %64%74%55%
Points / game114.7113.8115.5
Allowed / game109.1107.0111.0
Point differential+5.6+6.8+4.5
Avg total223.8220.7226.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%30%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (19)67% (9)40% (10)
Overtime %10%4%16%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder59451476%119.3108.5+10.8
2 Detroit Pistons58441476%117.5109.7+7.8
3 San Antonio Spurs57411672%118.4111.7+6.7
4 Boston Celtics59392066%115.0107.5+7.5
5 Houston Rockets58372164%114.7109.1+5.6
6 New York Knicks58362262%117.0111.5+5.5
7 Denver Nuggets60372362%120.5115.9+4.6
8 Minnesota Timberwolves60372362%119.2114.7+4.5
9 Cleveland Cavaliers61372461%119.4115.2+4.2
10 Los Angeles Lakers57342360%115.4115.6-0.2
11 Toronto Raptors58342459%113.8111.7+2.2
12 Phoenix Suns59342558%112.5110.9+1.6
13 Philadelphia 76ers59332656%116.7115.9+0.7
14 Orlando Magic56302654%114.8114.4+0.4
15 Miami Heat59312853%120.1117.2+2.9
16 Golden State Warriors59312853%115.8113.8+2.0
17 Charlotte Hornets61303149%116.0113.0+3.0
18 Atlanta Hawks61303149%117.1117.6-0.5
19 Portland Trail Blazers61293248%115.5118.1-2.6
20 Los Angeles Clippers58273147%111.7112.2-0.6
21 Milwaukee Bucks58263245%112.1115.6-3.5
22 Chicago Bulls60243640%115.7120.5-4.7
23 Memphis Grizzlies58223638%115.6117.9-2.3
24 Dallas Mavericks59213836%114.4118.0-3.6
25 Utah Jazz59184131%118.0125.9-7.9
26 New Orleans Pelicans60184230%115.0120.3-5.3
27 Washington Wizards58164228%111.9122.8-10.9
28 Brooklyn Nets59154425%107.0115.6-8.6
29 Indiana Pacers60154525%111.5119.5-8.0
30 Sacramento Kings61144723%110.4121.1-10.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat32193430115
Houston Rockets28243122105
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.