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Karaganda vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 03 May 2026
Tip-off: 06:00
Final 84-64
27-14 18-18 18-17 21-15
Position#7
Record13-15
FormLWWLW
Points / game80.2
Allowed / game78.5
vs
Position#14
Record2-26
FormLLLLL
Points / game56.5
Allowed / game87.2
KazakhstanHigher League
Other2025-26
Meetings · Karaganda v Pavlodar
03 May 2026
KARA84
PAVL64
14 Feb 2026
KARA84
PAVL36
14 Mar 2023
KARA81
PAVL66
16 Feb 2023
KARA100
PAVL75
26 Dec 2022
KARA81
PAVL74
24 Nov 2020
KARA76
PAVL59
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Karaganda winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

KaragandaKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
97-86
97
86
+11
A13/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
84-36
84
36
+48
H14/02
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-83
78
83
-5
A26/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
79-106
79
106
-27
H27/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
78-67
78
67
+11
A28/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
75-98
75
98
-23
H29/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
83-65
83
65
+18
H14/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
85-70
85
70
+15
A15/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
85-88
85
88
-3
H16/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
78-61
78
61
+17
A17/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-17
16-22
20-21
30-26
26-2
18-12
28-6
12-16
16-19
25-19
18-18
19-27
25-30
20-27
18-28
16-21
16-24
22-21
22-10
18-12
18-26
12-19
20-23
25-30
17-15
23-18
22-10
21-22
24-20
26-27
19-7
16-16
20-20
26-27
25-24
14-17
19-17
14-9
25-19
20-16
158.2Avg total
82.2Scored
76.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)80.278.5158.7+1.746%
Season at home (14)83.579.4162.9+4.136%
Season away (14)76.977.6154.6-0.757%
Last 10 (10)82.276.0158.2+6.260%
Last 5 (5)81.276.4157.6+4.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)57.880.2137.9-22.40%
vs Similar (2)83.588.5172.0-5.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)86.668.7155.3+17.981%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AiRom
#13
L
61-98
61
98
-37
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
36-84
36
84
-48
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
64-92
64
92
-28
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
78-92
78
92
-14
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
69-94
69
94
-25
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
69-75
69
75
-6
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
44-64
44
64
-20
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
67-80
67
80
-13
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
70-74
70
74
-4
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
55-77
55
77
-22
A17/04
Higher League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-29
12-23
16-23
10-23
2-26
12-18
6-28
16-12
17-35
16-21
13-20
18-16
15-24
18-26
23-26
22-16
15-25
18-22
15-22
21-25
20-19
19-17
20-20
10-19
8-12
11-21
9-12
16-19
24-29
19-21
8-17
16-13
14-24
20-7
14-17
22-26
11-19
15-23
13-17
16-18
144.3Avg total
61.3Scored
83.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)56.587.2143.8-30.87%
Season at home (14)58.183.1141.3-25.014%
Season away (14)54.991.4146.2-36.50%
Last 10 (10)61.383.0144.3-21.70%
Last 5 (5)61.074.0135.0-13.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)57.190.4147.5-33.30%
vs Similar (2)76.560.5137.0+16.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Karaganda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-12-6+0+6+12Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: -9.3-9.3Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: +5.1+5.1Q3: -6.5-6.5Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: -2.0-2.0
KaragandaPavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
KaragandaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arlans
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A13/02
Higher League
Pavlodar
#14
W
44-14
44
14
+30
H14/02
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A26/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
45-57
45
57
-12
H27/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A28/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H29/03
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H14/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
50-47
50
47
+3
A15/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
46-47
46
47
-1
H16/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
33-26
33
26
+7
A17/04
Higher League
80.5Avg total
41.4Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (28)40.239.579.8+0.754%-
Last 30 at home (14)42.438.180.5+4.257%-
Last 30 away (14)38.140.979.0-2.950%-
Last 10 (10)41.439.180.5+2.360%-
Last 5 (5)39.839.679.4+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)33.246.980.1-13.710%-
vs Similar (2)45.037.582.5+7.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)44.035.279.2+8.875%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
AiRom
#13
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A13/02
Higher League
Karaganda
#7
L
14-44
14
44
-30
A14/02
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-56
33
56
-23
A26/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H27/03
Higher League
BC Almaty 2
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A28/03
Higher League
CHAMP1ON
#9
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H29/03
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
L
19-33
19
33
-14
H14/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A15/04
Higher League
ChelSU Kostanay
#8
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H16/04
Higher League
Tobol Kostanay 2
#12
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A17/04
Higher League
75.0Avg total
30.9Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)28.146.975.0-18.817%-
Last 30 at home (15)30.443.173.5-12.733%-
Last 30 away (15)25.850.676.4-24.80%-
Last 10 (10)30.944.175.0-13.220%-
Last 5 (5)32.238.470.6-6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)27.747.875.5-20.114%-
vs Similar (2)34.033.567.5+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Karaganda) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Karagandatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Karaganda: 80.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.2 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.6 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.923.6
57.8%
49.5%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.27.8
24.0%
28.5%23.2
🏀 Free throws13.29.6
72.6%
63.9%9.6
They take 73.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pavlodartheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pavlodar: 65.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers16.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws6.5 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.8 points a game
56%
30%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.520.9
37.6%
49.5%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.95.6
25.7%
28.5%16.9
🏀 Free throws13.56.5
48.1%
63.9%6.5
They take 77.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/8 games with a box score before 03 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Karaganda
WLWWLWLLWW
Pavlodar
LLLLLLLLLL
#7
League position
#14
+0.5
Net rating
-18.9
100.0
Offensive rating
77.6
99.6
Defensive rating
96.5
48.2%
Effective FG%
37.9%
47.3%
Opp. effective FG%
45.0%
0.0%
Turnover %
0.0%
0.18
Free-throw rate
0.17
24.0%
3-point %
25.7%
57.4%
Assist %
33.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence100.0 · 77.6Defence99.6 · 96.5Shooting48.2% · 37.9%3-point %24.0% · 25.7%Ball care0.0% · 0.0%Free throws0.18 · 0.17Form (last 10/10)60% · 0%
■ Karaganda   ■ Pavlodar
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Karaganda wins
0
Pavlodar wins
DateGameScore
14/02/26Karaganda v Pavlodar84-36
18/11/25Pavlodar v Karaganda60-80
14/03/23Karaganda v Pavlodar81-66
16/02/23Karaganda v Pavlodar100-75
26/12/22Karaganda v Pavlodar81-74
25/02/21Pavlodar v Karaganda66-70
31/01/21Pavlodar v Karaganda56-86
18/12/20Pavlodar v Karaganda46-75
24/11/20Karaganda v Pavlodar76-59
Karagandalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/04/26AChelSU Kostanay78-61
16/04/26HTobol Kostanay 285-88
15/04/26AChelSU Kostanay85-70
14/04/26HTobol Kostanay 283-65
29/03/26HBC Almaty 275-98
28/03/26ACHAMP1ON78-67
27/03/26HBC Almaty 279-106
26/03/26ACHAMP1ON78-83
14/02/26HPavlodar84-36
13/02/26AArlans97-86
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/04/26ATobol Kostanay 255-77
16/04/26HChelSU Kostanay70-74
15/04/26ATobol Kostanay 267-80
14/04/26HChelSU Kostanay44-64
29/03/26HCHAMP1ON69-75
28/03/26ABC Almaty 269-94
27/03/26HCHAMP1ON78-92
26/03/26ABC Almaty 264-92
14/02/26AKaraganda36-84
13/02/26AAiRom61-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Karaganda
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW46%
HomeWLLWL36%
AwayWLWWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %46%36%57%
Points / game80.283.576.9
Allowed / game78.579.477.6
Point differential+1.7+4.1-0.7
Avg total158.7162.9154.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%36%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (5)0% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %7%14%0%
Pavlodar
Higher League 2025-26
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL7%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %7%14%0%
Points / game56.558.154.9
Allowed / game87.283.191.4
Point differential-30.8-25.0-36.5
Avg total143.8141.3146.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+4%7%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Turan33330100%86.959.7+27.2
2 Shymkent3329488%94.070.1+23.8
3 Bars Petropavlovsk3326779%84.762.9+21.8
4 Aktobe3325876%81.868.7+13.0
5 BC Almaty 233201361%83.874.5+9.2
6 Atyrau 233191458%75.771.5+4.2
7 ChelSU Kostanay33161748%74.979.7-4.8
8 Karaganda28131546%80.278.5+1.7
9 CHAMP1ON33141942%72.277.7-5.5
10 Tigers-KazATU28111739%68.576.4-7.9
11 Arlans2882029%73.683.0-9.4
12 Tobol Kostanay 22872125%69.781.6-11.9
13 AiRom2852318%63.282.5-19.3
14 Pavlodar282267%56.587.2-30.8
15 Kaspiy Aktau 2281274%55.783.1-27.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Karaganda2718182184
Pavlodar1418171564
← all games of the day
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