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Geelong vs Mt Gambier Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 May 2023
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 106-105
32-27 33-30 22-22 19-26
Position#10
Record1-4
FormLLLLW
Points / game81.8
Allowed / game89.6
Geelong 🏆
Australia
vs
Position#4
Record6-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game103.5
Allowed / game86.3
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2023
Meetings · Geelong v Mt Gambier
29 Mar 2025
GEEL58
MT G108
04 May 2024
GEEL81
MT G93
06 May 2023
GEEL106
MT G105
31 Jul 2022
GEEL86
MT G92
09 Jul 2021
GEEL90
MT G96
17 Jun 2017
GEEL72
MT G95
22 Apr 2016
GEEL74
MT G97
20 Jun 2015
GEEL73
MT G94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Geelong winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Mt Gambier winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mt Gambier
#2
L
86-92
86
92
-6
H31/07
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#16
W
89-75
89
75
+14
H05/08
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#14
L
74-98
74
98
-24
A06/08
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#15
L
95-100
95
100
-5
A14/08
NBL1 South
Frankston
#5
L
57-87
57
87
-30
A20/08
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#14
L
95-97
95
97
-2
A01/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
L
85-96
85
96
-11
H15/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#2
L
87-92
87
92
-5
H21/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
63-90
63
90
-27
A22/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
79-73
79
73
+6
H29/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-17
20-23
23-27
17-25
22-28
15-17
29-13
23-17
25-23
19-24
15-25
15-26
26-23
18-27
19-25
32-25
14-25
6-18
27-19
10-25
31-24
28-25
14-25
22-23
21-27
32-19
12-22
20-28
21-23
31-27
13-23
22-19
15-22
11-29
15-18
22-21
26-18
15-22
18-16
20-17
171.0Avg total
81.0Scored
90.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)81.889.6171.4-7.820%
Season at home (3)83.787.0170.7-3.333%
Season away (2)79.093.5172.5-14.50%
Last 10 (10)81.090.0171.0-9.020%
Last 5 (5)81.889.6171.4-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)77.283.0160.2-5.830%
vs Similar ◀ (11)87.686.0173.6+1.645%
vs Weaker (9)87.885.2173.0+2.667%
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Waverley
#9
L
86-93
86
93
-7
A14/08
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#3
W
94-84
94
84
+10
H19/08
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#4
W
88-62
88
62
+26
H28/08
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#1
L
62-78
62
78
-16
A03/09
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#2
W
119-89
119
89
+30
A01/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#6
W
104-94
104
94
+10
A02/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
W
97-80
97
80
+17
H14/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
103-94
103
94
+9
A16/04
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#16
W
106-82
106
82
+24
H22/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
W
92-79
92
79
+13
H29/04
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-24
29-21
19-28
24-20
24-16
28-22
22-27
20-19
22-21
17-15
28-10
21-16
23-13
6-22
18-23
15-20
31-23
27-28
39-20
22-18
26-24
33-19
25-24
20-27
27-19
26-17
24-23
20-21
18-27
24-16
32-23
29-28
31-26
30-22
16-19
29-15
21-15
22-22
26-17
23-25
178.6Avg total
95.1Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)103.586.3189.8+17.2100%
Season at home (3)98.380.3178.7+18.0100%
Season away (3)108.792.3201.0+16.3100%
Last 10 (10)95.183.5178.6+11.680%
Last 5 (5)100.485.8186.2+14.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)97.089.9186.9+7.171%
vs Weaker (23)93.781.3175.0+12.478%
This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: -2.8-2.8Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: +1.4+1.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: -3.6-3.6Q2: +3.8+3.8Q3Q3: -2.8-2.8Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: -2.3-2.3Q4: +1.4+1.4
GeelongMt Gambier
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mt Gambier
#2
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H31/07
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#16
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H05/08
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#14
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A06/08
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#15
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A14/08
NBL1 South
Frankston
#5
L
20-43
20
43
-23
A20/08
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#14
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A01/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#13
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H15/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#2
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H21/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
L
26-51
26
51
-25
A22/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H29/04
NBL1 South
88.3Avg total
42.2Scored
46.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.844.187.9-0.350%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.142.884.9-0.747%-
Last 30 away (15)45.545.490.9+0.153%-
Last 10 (10)42.246.188.3-3.950%-
Last 5 (5)46.247.293.4-1.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)39.143.983.0-4.840%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)45.543.589.0+2.155%-
vs Weaker (9)46.845.191.9+1.756%-
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Waverley
#9
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A14/08
NBL1 South
Kilsyth
#3
W
52-38
52
38
+14
H19/08
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#4
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H28/08
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#1
L
29-35
29
35
-6
A03/09
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#2
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A01/04
NBL1 South
Nunawading
#6
W
59-43
59
43
+16
A02/04
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#19
W
53-36
53
36
+17
H14/04
NBL1 South
Frankston
#3
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A16/04
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#16
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H22/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#15
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H29/04
NBL1 South
89.1Avg total
47.9Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.141.487.5+4.760%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.740.485.1+4.360%-
Last 30 away (15)47.642.490.0+5.260%-
Last 10 (10)47.941.289.1+6.770%-
Last 5 (5)51.641.493.0+10.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)47.045.392.3+1.743%-
vs Weaker (23)45.940.286.1+5.765%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Geelong wins
6
Mt Gambier wins
DateGameScore
31/07/22Geelong v Mt Gambier86-92
20/05/22Mt Gambier v Geelong82-83
09/07/21Geelong v Mt Gambier90-96
23/06/17Mt Gambier v Geelong104-94
17/06/17Geelong v Mt Gambier72-95
15/07/16Mt Gambier v Geelong87-98
22/04/16Geelong v Mt Gambier74-97
07/08/15Mt Gambier v Geelong68-69
20/06/15Geelong v Mt Gambier73-94
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/04/23HFrankston79-73
22/04/23ACasey Cavaliers63-90
21/04/23HSandringham Sabres87-92
15/04/23HBendigo Braves85-96
01/04/23AKilsyth95-97
20/08/22AFrankston57-87
14/08/22ACasey Cavaliers95-100
06/08/22AKeilor Thunder74-98
05/08/22HNunawading89-75
31/07/22HMt Gambier86-92
Mt Gambierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/04/23HRingwood92-79
22/04/23HKeilor Thunder106-82
16/04/23AFrankston103-94
14/04/23HCasey Cavaliers97-80
02/04/23ANunawading104-94
01/04/23ASandringham Sabres119-89
03/09/22AHobart Chargers62-78
28/08/22HSandringham Sabres88-62
19/08/22HKilsyth94-84
14/08/22AWaverley86-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Geelong
NBL1 South 2023
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW20%
HomeLLW33%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %20%33%0%
Points / game81.883.779.0
Allowed / game89.687.093.5
Point differential-7.8-3.3-14.5
Avg total171.4170.7172.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Mt Gambier
NBL1 South 2023
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game103.598.3108.7
Allowed / game86.380.392.3
Point differential+17.2+18.0+16.3
Avg total189.8178.7201.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+83%100%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Mt Gambier660100%103.586.3+17.2
2 Eltham65183%90.075.5+14.5
3 Frankston75271%95.482.7+12.7
4 Ballarat75271%94.788.9+5.9
5 Nunawading64267%91.283.8+7.3
6 Kilsyth74357%94.491.0+3.4
7 Hobart Chargers74357%87.086.1+0.9
8 Sandringham Sabres74357%87.491.6-4.1
9 Knox63350%82.073.8+8.2
10 Diamond Valley63350%86.289.2-3.0
11 Keilor Thunder63350%82.290.8-8.7
12 Melbourne Tigers73443%80.082.7-2.7
13 Casey Cavaliers62433%76.379.0-2.7
14 Ringwood62433%88.792.2-3.5
15 NW Tasmania62433%77.790.2-12.5
16 Dandenong72529%87.690.1-2.6
17 Bendigo Braves82625%85.498.0-12.6
18 Geelong51420%81.889.6-7.8
19 Waverley61517%78.787.8-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Geelong32332219106
Mt Gambier27302226105
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