On 3 November 2026 the Liaoning team will host Guangzhou in the CBA, with the model favouring Liaoning and projecting a 74% chance of victory and a 95-87 scoreline. Liaoning enters the contest with a 6-1 season record, averaging 96.6 points and conceding 87.0, and sits third in the league; at home they are unbeaten 3-0, scoring 97.7 and allowing 83.7, and have won four of their last five games, including a 91-71 home win over Shenzhen on 1 November. Guangzhou, meanwhile, is 4-3 overall, averaging 91.0 points and giving up 94.4, and is eighth in the standings; on the road they are 2-2, averaging 90.8 and conceding 94.8, and have won two of their last five, with a recent 90-79 away victory over Jilin on 1 November. The teams have met ten times, Liaoning winning eight; Guangzhou's most recent triumph was a 93-77 win on 28 March 2026. Pythia assigns a 42% probability that Liaoning will cover the home line of -10.5 and a 54% chance of the over on the 179.5 total, with a 6% likelihood of overtime. The projected total of 181.7 points suggests a high-scoring affair.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 96.6 | 87.0 | 183.6 | +9.6 | 86% |
| Season at home (3) | 97.7 | 83.7 | 181.3 | +14.0 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 95.8 | 89.5 | 185.2 | +6.2 | 75% |
| Last 10 (10) | 92.1 | 87.6 | 179.7 | +4.5 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 96.8 | 86.4 | 183.2 | +10.4 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 77.5 | 91.0 | 168.5 | -13.5 | 0% |
| vs Similar (13) | 90.2 | 87.4 | 177.6 | +2.8 | 69% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 96.5 | 85.4 | 181.9 | +11.2 | 85% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 91.0 | 94.4 | 185.4 | -3.4 | 57% |
| Season at home (3) | 91.3 | 94.0 | 185.3 | -2.7 | 67% |
| Season away (4) | 90.8 | 94.8 | 185.5 | -4.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 87.4 | 91.2 | 178.6 | -3.8 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 86.6 | 100.2 | 186.8 | -13.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (16) | 85.1 | 93.7 | 178.8 | -8.6 | 19% |
| vs Similar (10) | 91.4 | 88.8 | 180.2 | +2.6 | 60% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 95.5 | 76.0 | 171.5 | +19.5 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 94.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 47.7 | 45.1 | 92.8 | +2.6 | 67% | 43% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 48.8 | 43.5 | 92.3 | +5.3 | 79% | 36% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 46.8 | 46.5 | 93.3 | +0.3 | 56% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 50.5 | 47.1 | 97.6 | +3.4 | 70% | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 51.6 | 46.2 | 97.8 | +5.4 | 80% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 43.0 | 45.5 | 88.5 | -2.5 | 50% | 25% |
| vs Similar (13) | 47.5 | 45.2 | 92.6 | +2.3 | 62% | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (13) | 49.5 | 44.9 | 94.4 | +4.5 | 77% | 54% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 94.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 44.0 | 45.9 | 89.9 | -1.9 | 53% | 33% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 42.9 | 44.5 | 87.4 | -1.6 | 50% | 12% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 45.2 | 47.5 | 92.7 | -2.3 | 57% | 57% |
| Last 10 (10) | 43.0 | 46.4 | 89.4 | -3.4 | 50% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.8 | 50.2 | 92.0 | -8.4 | 40% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (16) | 42.6 | 48.8 | 91.4 | -6.2 | 31% | 38% |
| vs Similar (10) | 45.9 | 44.6 | 90.5 | +1.3 | 70% | 30% |
| vs Weaker (4) | 44.8 | 37.5 | 82.2 | +7.2 | 100% | 25% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guangzhou +15 | 72.7% | 1.57 | 1.59 | 1.55 | - | - | - | +14.9pp | Won |
| Guangzhou +16 | 75.4% | 1.49 | 1.51 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +14.6pp | Won |
| Guangzhou +16.5 | 76.0% | 1.46 | 1.53 | 1.44 | 1.42 | - | - | +14.5pp | Won |
| Guangzhou +14.5 | 70.7% | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.60 | 1.59 | +14.5pp | Won |
| Guangzhou +15.5 | 73.4% | 1.54 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.51 | 1.50 | - | +14.1pp | Won |
| Guangzhou +17.5 | 78.5% | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.38 | 1.36 | - | - | +14.1pp | Won |
| Guangzhou +18.5 | 80.7% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +12.1pp | Won |
| Guangzhou over 80.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.43 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Guangzhou over 79.5 | 73.0% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +8.7pp | Won |
| Guangzhou over 78.5 | 75.7% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Won |
| Guangzhou over 77.5 | 78.3% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +7.6pp | Won |
| Liaoning under 101.5 | 71.8% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +7.3pp | Won |
| Liaoning under 102.5 | 74.6% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Won |
| Liaoning under 103.5 | 77.3% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 94.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp | - |
| Liaoning win | 74.3% | 1.12 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | -7.6pp | Won |
| Liaoning (regulation) | 71.1% | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | -9.3pp | Won |
| Guangzhou +19.5 | 82.8% | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Guangzhou +19 | 82.5% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Guangzhou +18 | 80.3% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Guangzhou +17 | 77.9% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 44.6 | 24.7 | 53.8% | 49.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 27.5 | 9.3 | 35.0% | 27.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.5 | 15.0 | 74.8% | 15.0 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.8 | 18.7 | 53.8% | 37.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 25.9 | 8.6 | 35.0% | 25.8 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 28.4 | 20.6 | 74.8% | 20.6 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 | Guangzhou v Liaoning | 93-77 |
| 18/03/26 | Liaoning v Guangzhou | 97-86 |
| 21/03/25 | Liaoning v Guangzhou | 135-108 |
| 26/12/24 | Guangzhou v Liaoning | 97-98 |
| 03/11/24 | Liaoning v Guangzhou | 97-86 |
| 18/10/24 | Guangzhou v Liaoning | 88-120 |
| 09/03/24 | Liaoning v Guangzhou | 109-103 |
| 26/12/23 | Guangzhou v Liaoning | 76-93 |
| 03/04/23 | Guangzhou v Liaoning | 87-69 |
| 18/10/22 | Liaoning v Guangzhou | 107-90 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 | H | Shenzhen | 91-71 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Ningbo Rockets | 107-91 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Zhejiang Guangsha | 84-90 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Xinjiang | 98-87 |
| 23/10/26 | H | Sichuan | 104-93 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Qingdao | 97-93 |
| 18/10/26 | A | Shandong | 95-84 |
| 03/05/26 | A | Shandong | 82-98 |
| 01/05/26 | H | Shandong | 86-102 |
| 28/04/26 | A | Shandong | 77-67 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 | A | Jilin | 90-79 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Shanxi Zhongyu | 93-113 |
| 27/10/26 | H | Beijing Royal Fighters | 91-90 OT |
| 25/10/26 | A | Beijing | 73-117 |
| 23/10/26 | A | Tianjin | 86-102 |
| 20/10/26 | A | Nanjing Tongxi | 114-81 |
| 18/10/26 | H | Zhejiang Chouzhou | 90-79 |
| 03/05/26 | A | Guangdong | 80-90 |
| 01/05/26 | H | Guangdong | 64-85 |
| 28/04/26 | A | Guangdong | 93-76 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLWW | 86% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | WWLW | 75% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Win % | 86% | 100% | 75% |
| Points / game | 96.6 | 97.7 | 95.8 |
| Allowed / game | 87.0 | 83.7 | 89.5 |
| Point differential | +9.6 | +14.0 | +6.2 |
| Avg total | 183.6 | 181.3 | 185.2 |
| Over 180.5 | 57% | 67% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 71% | 100% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLW | 57% |
| Home | WWL | 67% |
| Away | WLLW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Win % | 57% | 67% | 50% |
| Points / game | 91.0 | 91.3 | 90.8 |
| Allowed / game | 94.4 | 94.0 | 94.8 |
| Point differential | -3.4 | -2.7 | -4.0 |
| Avg total | 185.4 | 185.3 | 185.5 |
| Over 180.5 | 71% | 67% | 75% |
| Win by 10+ | 43% | 33% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 14% | 33% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 105.6 | 78.4 | +27.1 |
| 2 | Shanghai | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 97.1 | 86.3 | +10.9 |
| 3 | Liaoning | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 96.6 | 87.0 | +9.6 |
| 4 | Beijing Royal Fighters | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 99.1 | 83.0 | +16.1 |
| 5 | Shanxi Zhongyu | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 101.0 | 90.9 | +10.1 |
| 6 | Zhejiang Chouzhou | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 82.7 | 74.1 | +8.6 |
| 7 | Fujian | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 91.7 | 88.3 | +3.4 |
| 8 | Guangzhou | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 91.0 | 94.4 | -3.4 |
| 9 | Zhejiang Guangsha | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 90.6 | 95.9 | -5.3 |
| 10 | Jilin | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 83.7 | 83.9 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Xinjiang | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 86.0 | 89.9 | -3.9 |
| 12 | Shenzhen | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 76.7 | 94.4 | -17.7 |
| 13 | Guangdong | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 88.6 | 90.4 | -1.8 |
| 14 | Qingdao | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 91.5 | 93.2 | -1.8 |
| 15 | Shandong | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 91.8 | 94.2 | -2.5 |
| 16 | Tianjin | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 92.7 | 95.0 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Nanjing Tongxi | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 87.4 | 97.3 | -9.9 |
| 18 | Sichuan | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 80.6 | 95.6 | -15.0 |
| 19 | Jiangsu Dragons | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 79.6 | 86.0 | -6.4 |
| 20 | Ningbo Rockets | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 77.9 | 95.1 | -17.3 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liaoning | 24 | 35 | 18 | 23 | 100 |
| Guangzhou | 21 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 93 |
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