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Louisville vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 10 Mar 2021
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 56-70
29-30 27-40
Position#94
Record13-6
FormWLWWL
Points / game68.6
Allowed / game66.3
vs
Duke 🏆
USA
Position#154
Record12-11
FormWLLLW
Points / game76.3
Allowed / game72.0
USANCAARound 10
Other2020-21
Meetings · Louisville v Duke
06 Jan 2026
LOUI73
DUKE84
08 Dec 2024
LOUI65
DUKE76
23 Jan 2024
LOUI69
DUKE83
29 Jan 2022
LOUI65
DUKE74
10 Mar 2021
LOUI56
DUKE70
23 Jan 2021
LOUI70
DUKE65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Louisville winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LouisvilleUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#312
W
77-65
77
65
+12
A14/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#42
L
65-78
65
78
-13
H19/01
NCAA
Duke
#154
W
70-65
70
65
+5
H23/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
L
50-54
50
54
-4
A28/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H01/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
54-99
54
99
-45
A20/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
W
69-57
69
57
+12
H24/02
NCAA
Duke
#154
W
80-73 OT
80
73
+7
A27/02
NCAA
Virginia
#43
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H06/03
NCAA
1H
2H
46-34
31-31
21-33
51-45
28-42
37-36
36-33
34-32
22-21
28-33
33-27
41-31
29-48
25-51
33-24
36-33
36-26
29-39
21-28
37-40
136.4Avg total
66.9Scored
69.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)68.666.3134.9+2.368%
Season at home (11)71.162.5133.6+8.582%
Season away (8)65.171.5136.6-6.450%
Last 10 (10)66.969.5136.4-2.650%
Last 5 (5)67.071.0138.0-4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)70.570.2140.8+0.250%
vs Similar ◀ (13)67.267.4134.6-0.269%
vs Weaker (13)72.863.9136.8+8.969%
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#105
L
87-91
87
91
-4
H06/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
L
89-93
89
93
-4
H09/02
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
69-53
69
53
+16
A13/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
84-60
84
60
+24
A18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#43
W
66-65
66
65
+1
H21/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#96
W
85-71
85
71
+14
H23/02
NCAA
Louisville
#94
L
73-80 OT
73
80
-7
H27/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
L
77-81 OT
77
81
-4
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
73-91
73
91
-18
A06/03
NCAA
Boston College
#332
W
86-51
86
51
+35
H09/03
NCAA
1H
2H
39-41
48-50
50-45
39-48
39-21
30-32
45-26
39-34
39-36
27-29
52-34
33-37
26-36
39-29
34-31
30-33
26-42
47-49
41-27
45-24
152.5Avg total
78.9Scored
73.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)76.372.0148.2+4.352%
Season at home (14)78.371.8150.1+6.564%
Season away (9)73.172.2145.3+0.933%
Last 10 (10)78.973.6152.5+5.350%
Last 5 (5)78.874.8153.6+4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)72.068.5140.5+3.550%
vs Similar ◀ (12)74.173.0147.1+1.142%
vs Weaker (16)81.172.8153.8+8.362%
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.1-1.11st half: +5.2+5.22nd half2nd half: -2.2-2.22nd half: +1.2+1.2
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: -1.1-1.11st half: +5.2+5.22nd half2nd half: -2.2-2.22nd half: +1.2+1.2
LouisvilleDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
LouisvilleLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wake Forest
#312
W
46-34
46
34
+12
A14/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#268
L
21-33
21
33
-12
A17/01
NCAA
Florida State
#42
L
28-42
28
42
-14
H19/01
NCAA
Duke
#154
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H23/01
NCAA
Clemson
#78
W
22-21
22
21
+1
A28/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
33-27
33
27
+6
H01/02
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
29-48
29
48
-19
A20/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
W
33-24
33
24
+9
H24/02
NCAA
Duke
#154
W
36-26
36
26
+10
A27/02
NCAA
Virginia
#43
L
21-28
21
28
-7
H06/03
NCAA
62.1Avg total
30.5Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.531.363.8+1.263%-
Last 30 at home (16)34.130.464.5+3.869%-
Last 30 away (14)30.632.362.9-1.657%-
Last 10 (10)30.531.662.1-1.160%-
Last 5 (5)30.430.661.0-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)31.533.064.5-1.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)32.231.663.8+0.577%-
vs Weaker (13)33.230.463.5+2.854%-
This opponent (Duke) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
North Carolina
#105
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H06/02
NCAA
Notre Dame
#236
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H09/02
NCAA
NC State
#137
W
39-21
39
21
+18
A13/02
NCAA
Wake Forest
#312
W
45-26
45
26
+19
A18/02
NCAA
Virginia
#43
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H21/02
NCAA
Syracuse
#96
W
52-34
52
34
+18
H23/02
NCAA
Louisville
#94
L
26-36
26
36
-10
H27/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#84
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A03/03
NCAA
North Carolina
#105
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A06/03
NCAA
Boston College
#332
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H09/03
NCAA
73.0Avg total
39.1Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.434.171.5+3.360%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.333.472.8+5.972%-
Last 30 away (12)34.535.069.5-0.542%-
Last 10 (10)39.133.973.0+5.270%-
Last 5 (5)35.834.069.8+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.034.066.0-2.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)35.834.470.2+1.450%-
vs Weaker (16)39.233.873.1+5.469%-
This opponent (Louisville) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Louisville wins
0
Duke wins
DateGameScore
27/02/21Duke v Louisville73-80 OT
23/01/21Louisville v Duke70-65
18/01/20Duke v Louisville73-79
Louisvillelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/21HVirginia58-68
27/02/21ADuke80-73 OT
24/02/21HNotre Dame69-57
20/02/21ANorth Carolina54-99
01/02/21HGeorgia Tech74-58
28/01/21AClemson50-54
23/01/21HDuke70-65
19/01/21HFlorida State65-78
17/01/21AMiami (FL)72-78
14/01/21AWake Forest77-65
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/21HBoston College86-51
06/03/21ANorth Carolina73-91
03/03/21AGeorgia Tech77-81 OT
27/02/21HLouisville73-80 OT
23/02/21HSyracuse85-71
21/02/21HVirginia66-65
18/02/21AWake Forest84-60
13/02/21ANC State69-53
09/02/21HNotre Dame89-93
06/02/21HNorth Carolina87-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Louisville
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL68%
HomeLWWWL82%
AwayWLLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19118
Win %68%82%50%
Points / game68.671.165.1
Allowed / game66.362.571.5
Point differential+2.3+8.5-6.4
Avg total134.9133.6136.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%45%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %5%0%12%
Duke
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW52%
HomeLWWLW64%
AwayLWWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games23149
Win %52%64%33%
Points / game76.378.373.1
Allowed / game72.071.872.2
Point differential+4.3+6.5+0.9
Avg total148.2150.1145.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%43%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)50% (4)0% (3)
Overtime %9%7%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Florida State2015575%79.670.0+9.6
2 Virginia Tech2015575%72.164.8+7.3
3 Virginia2317674%68.560.1+8.4
4 SMU Mustangs1511473%74.366.6+7.7
5 Clemson2316770%65.362.0+3.3
6 Louisville1913668%68.666.3+2.3
7 Syracuse2416867%76.170.7+5.5
8 Georgia Tech2315865%75.670.0+5.6
9 North Carolina2516964%74.869.7+5.2
10 NC State23131057%73.270.3+3.0
11 Stanford26141254%70.269.3+0.8
12 Duke23121152%76.372.0+4.3
13 Pittsburgh22101245%71.270.1+1.0
14 Notre Dame25111444%73.273.3-0.0
15 Miami (FL)26101638%66.571.0-4.5
16 California2781930%65.370.0-4.7
17 Wake Forest2261627%66.372.0-5.7
18 Boston College2041620%71.379.5-8.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Louisville292756
Duke304070
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