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Mechelen vs Leiden Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Scheduled
Position#13
Record2-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game89.0
Allowed / game95.2
vs
Position#11
Record2-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game75.2
Allowed / game77.6
EuropeBNXT League· Stedelijke Sporthal Winketkaai
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mechelen v Leiden
21 Nov 2026
MECH v LEI
upcoming
13 Mar 2026
MECH68
LEI78
07 May 2025
MECH70
LEI68
04 Mar 2023
MECH80
LEI79
04 Mar 2022
MECH98
LEI93
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mechelen win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Leiden win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MechelenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMechelen
Date
Competition
Oostende
#2
L
73-83
73
83
-10
61avg 70
H19/04
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#7
L
63-99
63
99
-36
44avg 70
A25/04
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
L
80-87
80
87
-7
68avg 70
H02/05
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
W
57-56
57
56
+1
49avg 70
A06/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#17
W
97-73
97
73
+24
99avg 70
H09/05
BNXT League
Limburg
#5
W
109-100
109
100
+9
107avg 70
A02/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
L
79-94
79
94
-15
64avg 70
H10/10
BNXT League
CB Liege
#15
W
96-78
96
78
+18
84avg 70
H17/10
BNXT League
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
75-109
75
109
-34
67avg 70
A24/10
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#7
L
86-95
86
95
-9
75avg 70
A30/10
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-31
18-29
13-12
20-11
14-22
11-23
15-27
23-27
18-21
22-27
21-14
19-25
10-16
17-17
13-17
17-6
23-7
29-16
23-32
22-18
29-33
23-20
29-27
28-20
21-23
28-19
16-26
14-26
24-21
33-20
19-20
20-17
16-31
19-28
26-26
14-24
20-21
20-27
18-31
28-16
168.9Avg total
81.5Scored
87.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)89.095.2184.2-6.240%
Season at home (2)87.586.0173.5+1.550%
Season away (3)90.0101.3191.3-11.333%
Last 10 (10)81.587.4168.9-5.940%
Last 5 (5)89.095.2184.2-6.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)75.285.9161.2-10.735%
vs Similar ◀ (6)75.782.0157.7-6.333%
vs Weaker (7)83.976.0159.9+7.971%
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
78-97
78
97
-19
69avg 75
A20/04
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
L
85-97
85
97
-12
76avg 75
H25/04
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#6
W
93-75
93
75
+18
87avg 75
A01/05
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
W
100-74
100
74
+26
99avg 75
A06/05
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
W
110-102
110
102
+8
119avg 75
H09/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#12
W
76-71
76
71
+5
68avg 75
A02/10
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#2
L
61-77
61
77
-16
46avg 75
H10/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
W
92-77
92
77
+15
88avg 75
H17/10
BNXT League
Leuven Bears
#8
L
64-67
64
67
-3
55avg 75
A24/10
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#9
L
83-96
83
96
-13
no box
H31/10
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-28
17-24
27-21
17-24
31-31
19-27
23-21
12-18
25-21
25-18
22-18
21-18
21-21
19-18
30-14
30-21
30-25
24-22
31-26
25-29
14-23
18-15
18-21
26-12
16-23
20-16
12-25
13-13
25-26
17-15
24-16
26-20
11-11
14-14
22-17
17-25
17-24
22-19
26-25
18-28
167.5Avg total
84.2Scored
83.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)75.277.6152.8-2.440%
Season at home (3)78.783.3162.0-4.733%
Season away (2)70.069.0139.0+1.050%
Last 10 (10)84.283.3167.5+0.950%
Last 5 (5)75.277.6152.8-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)74.986.6161.4-11.711%
vs Similar ◀ (11)84.185.1169.2-1.045%
vs Weaker (10)83.677.5161.1+6.170%
This opponent (Mechelen) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.3-0.3
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -3.9-3.9Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.3-0.3
MechelenLeiden
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MechelenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oostende
#2
L
40-60
40
60
-20
H19/04
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#7
L
25-45
25
45
-20
A25/04
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H02/05
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
L
27-33
27
33
-6
A06/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#17
W
52-23
52
23
+29
H09/05
BNXT League
Limburg
#5
L
52-53
52
53
-1
A02/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H10/10
BNXT League
CB Liege
#15
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H17/10
BNXT League
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
35-59
35
59
-24
A24/10
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#7
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A30/10
BNXT League
86.9Avg total
41.7Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.641.279.8-2.537%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.138.781.9+4.467%-
Last 30 away (15)34.143.677.7-9.57%-
Last 10 (10)41.745.286.9-3.530%-
Last 5 (5)46.648.695.2-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.542.979.4-6.429%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)35.542.578.0-7.017%-
vs Weaker (7)46.435.982.3+10.671%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
34-52
34
52
-18
A20/04
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H25/04
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#6
W
50-39
50
39
+11
A01/05
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A06/05
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H09/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#12
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A02/10
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#2
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H10/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#3
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H17/10
BNXT League
Leuven Bears
#8
D
25-25
25
25
+0
A24/10
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#9
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H31/10
BNXT League
82.3Avg total
40.2Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.542.481.8-2.940%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.644.085.6-2.438%-
Last 30 away (14)37.140.577.6-3.443%-
Last 10 (10)40.242.182.3-1.940%-
Last 5 (5)34.837.272.0-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)38.844.683.3-5.822%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)39.742.081.7-2.336%-
vs Weaker (10)39.840.880.6-1.060%-
This opponent (Mechelen) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mechelentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mechelen: 80.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.0 points a game
49%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.620.6
50.7%
53.1%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.48.7
35.7%
32.5%26.1
🏀 Free throws18.713.2
70.6%
71.1%13.2
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 85.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.0 points a game
49%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.823.3
55.7%
53.1%46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.08.3
33.2%
32.5%24.9
🏀 Free throws18.113.6
75.1%
71.1%13.6
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mechelen
LLWLWWWLLL
Leiden
LLWLWWWWLL
#13
League position
#11
-5.6
Net rating
+3.5
91.3
Offensive rating
97.9
96.9
Defensive rating
94.4
51.8%
Effective FG%
53.5%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
55.4%
16.4%
Turnover %
15.6%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.7%
3-point %
33.2%
59.4%
Assist %
63.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence91.3 · 97.9Defence96.9 · 94.4Shooting51.8% · 53.5%3-point %35.7% · 33.2%Ball care16.4% · 15.6%Free throws0.29 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Mechelen   ■ Leiden
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Mechelen wins
2
Leiden wins
DateGameScore
15/03/26Leiden v Mechelen59-75
13/03/26Mechelen v Leiden68-78
07/05/25Mechelen v Leiden70-68
07/12/24Leiden v Mechelen69-81
29/03/23Leiden v Mechelen75-77
04/03/23Mechelen v Leiden80-79
29/04/22Leiden v Mechelen84-67
04/03/22Mechelen v Leiden98-93
Mechelenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26ADen Bosch86-95
24/10/26AAntwerp Giants75-109
17/10/26HCB Liege96-78
10/10/26HOkapi Aalst79-94
02/10/26ALimburg109-100
09/05/26HRotterdam97-73
06/05/26ABrussels Basketball57-56
02/05/26HDen Helder80-87
25/04/26ADonar Groningen63-99
19/04/26HOostende73-83
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HDonar Groningen83-96
24/10/26ALeuven Bears64-67
17/10/26HOkapi Aalst92-77
10/10/26HBrussels Basketball61-77
02/10/26ARotterdam76-71
09/05/26HDen Helder110-102
06/05/26ALWD Basket100-74
01/05/26ADen Bosch93-75
25/04/26HOkapi Aalst85-97
20/04/26AAntwerp Giants78-97

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mechelen
BNXT League 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeLW50%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game89.087.590.0
Allowed / game95.286.0101.3
Point differential-6.2+1.5-11.3
Avg total184.2173.5191.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Leiden
BNXT League 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeLWL33%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%33%50%
Points / game75.278.770.0
Allowed / game77.683.369.0
Point differential-2.4-4.7+1.0
Avg total152.8162.0139.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Antwerp Giants550100%107.082.0+25.0
2 Brussels Basketball54180%81.468.2+13.2
3 Okapi Aalst54180%92.683.4+9.2
4 Spirou Charleroi53260%79.865.6+14.2
5 Limburg53260%91.286.6+4.6
6 Oostende53260%77.073.0+4.0
7 Den Bosch53260%79.880.4-0.6
8 Leuven Bears53260%68.069.0-1.0
9 Donar Groningen53260%83.088.2-5.2
10 Zwolle42250%69.875.8-6.0
11 Leiden52340%75.277.6-2.4
12 Rotterdam52340%76.280.8-4.6
13 Mechelen52340%89.095.2-6.2
14 Kortrijk4040%83.589.5-6.0
15 CB Liege5050%75.492.4-17.0
16 Belfius Mons5050%65.288.8-23.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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