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Mechelen vs Leiden Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Projected 83-81
Projected total 164.5
Scheduled
Position#11
Record3-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game88.4
Allowed / game91.0
Vs
58%
42%
■ MECH 58%■ LEI 42%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.4/10
Around normal
5.1/10
Around normal
Position#10
Record3-4
FormWLLWL
Points / game77.1
Allowed / game78.4
EuropeBNXT League· Stedelijke Sporthal Winketkaai
Other2026-27
Meetings · Mechelen v Leiden
21 Nov 2026
MECH v LEI
upcoming
13 Mar 2026
MECH68
LEI78
07 May 2025
MECH70
LEI68
04 Mar 2023
MECH80
LEI79
04 Mar 2022
MECH98
LEI93
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Mechelen host Leiden in the BNXT League. Pythia makes Mechelen the favourite at 58% and projects 83-81, about 164 points in all. Overtime chance: 5%. Mechelen are 3-4 this season (88.4 scored, 91.0 allowed a game), form WLLLW; Leiden are 3-4 this season (77.1 scored, 78.4 allowed a game), form WLLWL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mechelen win
58.0%fair 1.72
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Leiden win
42.0%fair 2.38
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 20:59 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MechelenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMechelen
Date
Competition
Den Helder
#12
L
80-87
80
87
-7
68avg 70
H02/05
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
W
57-56
57
56
+1
49avg 70
A06/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#17
W
97-73
97
73
+24
99avg 70
H09/05
BNXT League
Limburg
#5
W
109-100
109
100
+9
107avg 70
A02/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#4
L
79-94
79
94
-15
64avg 70
H10/10
BNXT League
CB Liege
#15
W
96-78
96
78
+18
84avg 70
H17/10
BNXT League
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
75-109
75
109
-34
67avg 70
A24/10
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#7
L
86-95
86
95
-9
75avg 70
A30/10
BNXT League
Kortrijk
#13
L
83-93
83
93
-10
no box
H07/11
BNXT League
Leuven Bears
#12
W
91-68
91
68
+23
no box
A14/11
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-21
22-27
21-14
19-25
10-16
17-17
13-17
17-6
23-7
29-16
23-32
22-18
29-33
23-20
29-27
28-20
21-23
28-19
16-26
14-26
24-21
33-20
19-20
20-17
16-31
19-28
26-26
14-24
20-21
20-27
18-31
28-16
29-15
15-23
14-27
25-28
25-25
23-11
20-12
23-20
170.6Avg total
85.3Scored
85.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)88.491.0179.4-2.643%
Season at home (3)86.088.3174.3-2.333%
Season away (4)90.293.0183.2-2.850%
Last 10 (10)85.385.3170.6+0.050%
Last 5 (5)86.288.6174.8-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)75.384.1159.4-8.940%
vs Similar ◀ (8)77.683.0160.6-5.425%
vs Weaker (7)83.976.0159.9+7.971%
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
Den Bosch
#6
W
93-75
93
75
+18
87avg 75
A01/05
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
W
100-74
100
74
+26
99avg 75
A06/05
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
W
110-102
110
102
+8
119avg 75
H09/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#14
W
76-71
76
71
+5
68avg 75
A02/10
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#3
L
61-77
61
77
-16
46avg 75
H10/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#4
W
92-77
92
77
+15
88avg 75
H17/10
BNXT League
Leuven Bears
#12
L
64-67
64
67
-3
55avg 75
A24/10
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#9
L
83-96
83
96
-13
72avg 75
H31/10
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#16
W
99-79
99
79
+20
no box
A07/11
BNXT League
Oostende
#6
L
65-82
65
82
-17
no box
H14/11
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-21
25-18
22-18
21-18
21-21
19-18
30-14
30-21
30-25
24-22
31-26
25-29
14-23
18-15
18-21
26-12
16-23
20-16
12-25
13-13
25-26
17-15
24-16
26-20
11-11
14-14
22-17
17-25
17-24
22-19
26-25
18-28
27-21
20-26
21-22
31-10
17-20
20-23
17-24
11-15
164.3Avg total
84.3Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)77.178.4155.6-1.343%
Season at home (4)75.283.0158.2-7.825%
Season away (3)79.772.3152.0+7.367%
Last 10 (10)84.380.0164.3+4.360%
Last 5 (5)80.680.2160.8+0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)73.986.1160.0-12.210%
vs Similar ◀ (9)85.485.3170.8+0.144%
vs Weaker (11)82.276.0158.2+6.273%
This opponent (Mechelen) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158.5
Over 158.5
63.3%
Under 158.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 163.5
Over 163.5
51.4%
Under 163.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 168.5
Over 168.5
39.5%
Under 168.5
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Mechelen total 79.5
Over 79.5
64.5%
Under 79.5
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mechelen total 83.5
Over 83.5
49.3%
Under 83.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mechelen total 87.5
Over 87.5
34.2%
Under 87.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiden total 76
Over 76
69.2%
Under 76
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiden total 80
Over 80
53.9%
Under 80
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Leiden total 84
Over 84
38.1%
Under 84
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Mechelen -3
MECH -3
49.0%
LEI +3
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
MECH
No market prices yet.
LEI
No market prices yet.
Spread Mechelen 0
MECH 0
58.0%
LEI 0
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
MECH
No market prices yet.
LEI
No market prices yet.
Spread Mechelen +3
MECH +3
66.8%
LEI -3
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
MECH
No market prices yet.
LEI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +2.7+2.7
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +2.7+2.7
MechelenLeiden
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MechelenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Den Helder
#12
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H02/05
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#9
L
27-33
27
33
-6
A06/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#17
W
52-23
52
23
+29
H09/05
BNXT League
Limburg
#5
L
52-53
52
53
-1
A02/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#4
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H10/10
BNXT League
CB Liege
#15
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H17/10
BNXT League
Antwerp Giants
#1
L
35-59
35
59
-24
A24/10
BNXT League
Den Bosch
#7
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A30/10
BNXT League
Kortrijk
#13
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H07/11
BNXT League
Leuven Bears
#12
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A14/11
BNXT League
86.5Avg total
44.4Scored
42.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.440.880.3-1.440%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.138.581.6+4.767%-
Last 30 away (15)35.743.278.9-7.513%-
Last 10 (10)44.442.186.5+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)44.844.489.2+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)37.142.679.7-5.533%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)37.641.979.5-4.225%-
vs Weaker (7)46.435.982.3+10.671%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Den Bosch
#6
W
50-39
50
39
+11
A01/05
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#15
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A06/05
BNXT League
Den Helder
#12
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H09/05
BNXT League
Rotterdam
#14
L
32-38
32
38
-6
A02/10
BNXT League
Brussels Basketball
#3
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H10/10
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#4
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H17/10
BNXT League
Leuven Bears
#12
D
25-25
25
25
+0
A24/10
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#9
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H31/10
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#16
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A07/11
BNXT League
Oostende
#6
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H14/11
BNXT League
80.3Avg total
40.2Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.442.381.7-2.937%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.243.484.6-2.238%-
Last 30 away (14)37.441.078.4-3.636%-
Last 10 (10)40.240.180.3+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)38.039.877.8-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)38.644.483.0-5.820%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)40.242.782.9-2.433%-
vs Weaker (11)39.540.079.5-0.555%-
This opponent (Mechelen) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mechelentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mechelen: 80.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
49%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.620.6
50.7%
53.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.48.7
35.7%
32.1%26.1
🏀 Free throws18.713.2
70.6%
71.0%13.2
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 84.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
49%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.922.3
54.5%
53.2%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.48.7
33.0%
32.1%26.1
🏀 Free throws17.613.5
76.7%
71.0%13.5
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mechelen
WLLLWLWWWL
Leiden
LWLLWLWWWW
#11
League position
#10
-5.6
Net rating
+2.4
91.3
Offensive rating
96.4
96.9
Defensive rating
94.0
51.8%
Effective FG%
52.5%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
55.9%
16.4%
Turnover %
15.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.26
35.7%
3-point %
33.0%
59.4%
Assist %
61.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence91.3 · 96.4Defence96.9 · 94.0Shooting51.8% · 52.5%3-point %35.7% · 33.0%Ball care16.4% · 15.8%Free throws0.29 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Mechelen   ■ Leiden
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Mechelen wins
2
Leiden wins
DateGameScore
15/03/26Leiden v Mechelen59-75
13/03/26Mechelen v Leiden68-78
07/05/25Mechelen v Leiden70-68
07/12/24Leiden v Mechelen69-81
29/03/23Leiden v Mechelen75-77
04/03/23Mechelen v Leiden80-79
29/04/22Leiden v Mechelen84-67
04/03/22Mechelen v Leiden98-93
Mechelenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ALeuven Bears91-68
07/11/26HKortrijk83-93
30/10/26ADen Bosch86-95
24/10/26AAntwerp Giants75-109
17/10/26HCB Liege96-78
10/10/26HOkapi Aalst79-94
02/10/26ALimburg109-100
09/05/26HRotterdam97-73
06/05/26ABrussels Basketball57-56
02/05/26HDen Helder80-87
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HOostende65-82
07/11/26ABelfius Mons99-79
31/10/26HDonar Groningen83-96
24/10/26ALeuven Bears64-67
17/10/26HOkapi Aalst92-77
10/10/26HBrussels Basketball61-77
02/10/26ARotterdam76-71
09/05/26HDen Helder110-102
06/05/26ALWD Basket100-74
01/05/26ADen Bosch93-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mechelen
BNXT League 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW43%
HomeLWL33%
AwayWLLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%33%50%
Points / game88.486.090.2
Allowed / game91.088.393.0
Point differential-2.6-2.3-2.8
Avg total179.4174.3183.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Leiden
BNXT League 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL43%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %43%25%67%
Points / game77.175.279.7
Allowed / game78.483.072.3
Point differential-1.3-7.8+7.3
Avg total155.6158.2152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Antwerp Giants770100%99.378.0+21.3
2 Spirou Charleroi75271%79.068.0+11.0
3 Brussels Basketball75271%80.470.9+9.6
4 Okapi Aalst75271%91.786.9+4.9
5 Limburg74357%90.984.9+6.0
6 Oostende74357%76.973.1+3.7
7 Den Bosch74357%83.683.6+0.0
8 Zwolle74357%74.978.0-3.1
9 Donar Groningen74357%81.686.7-5.1
10 Leiden73443%77.178.4-1.3
11 Mechelen73443%88.491.0-2.6
12 Leuven Bears73443%69.974.6-4.7
13 Kortrijk72529%83.082.4+0.6
14 Rotterdam72529%75.080.6-5.6
15 CB Liege71614%77.089.0-12.0
16 Belfius Mons7070%66.989.4-22.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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