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Mechelen vs Leiden Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 07 May 2025
Tip-off: 18:30
Final 70-68
17-17 21-24 16-16 16-11
Position#3
Record24-10
FormLWWLL
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game75.3
vs
Position#12
Record17-17
FormWLLLL
Points / game77.4
Allowed / game80.3
EuropeBNXT League· Stedelijke Sporthal Winketkaai
Other2024-25
Meetings · Mechelen v Leiden
21 Nov 2026
MECH v LEI
upcoming
13 Mar 2026
MECH68
LEI78
07 May 2025
MECH70
LEI68
04 Mar 2023
MECH80
LEI79
04 Mar 2022
MECH98
LEI93
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mechelen winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Leiden winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MechelenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMechelen
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#6
L
79-84
79
84
-5
69avg 73
A16/03
BNXT League
Circus Brussels
#5
W
87-74
87
74
+13
87avg 73
A28/03
BNXT League
Kortrijk
#1
W
93-91 OT
93
91
+2
83avg 73
H02/04
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#14
W
85-62
85
62
+23
54avg 73
H12/04
BNXT League
Oostende
#2
W
74-64
74
64
+10
66avg 73
H18/04
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#9
L
61-81
61
81
-20
45avg 73
A20/04
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#17
W
95-66
95
66
+29
100avg 73
A23/04
BNXT League
Den Helder
#16
W
93-67
93
67
+26
94avg 73
H26/04
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#13
L
78-79
78
79
-1
74avg 73
H30/04
BNXT League
Spirou Charleroi
#11
L
75-89
75
89
-14
56avg 73
A03/05
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-28
28-17
16-18
21-21
28-21
23-25
16-16
20-12
16-26
21-19
21-19
20-14
25-15
31-14
19-22
10-11
24-15
14-20
20-17
16-12
20-14
16-19
12-31
13-17
24-19
25-12
31-13
15-22
23-21
21-17
20-11
29-18
23-22
20-22
20-17
15-18
16-27
20-23
13-20
26-19
157.7Avg total
82.0Scored
75.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)81.575.3156.8+6.271%
Season at home (16)83.173.0156.1+10.181%
Season away (18)80.177.3157.4+2.861%
Last 10 (10)82.075.7157.7+6.360%
Last 5 (5)80.476.4156.8+4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)80.579.8160.2+0.850%
vs Similar (9)80.480.2160.7+0.256%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)82.669.8152.3+12.888%
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
Donar Groningen
#2
L
69-77
69
77
-8
no box
A21/03
DBL Cup
Leuven Bears
#7
L
63-98
63
98
-35
52avg 71
A29/03
BNXT League
BAL Weert
#18
W
85-81
85
81
+4
82avg 71
H05/04
BNXT League
QSTA Utd
#19
W
71-68
71
68
+3
66avg 71
H09/04
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#9
W
77-71
77
71
+6
73avg 71
A12/04
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#17
W
94-74
94
74
+20
93avg 71
A18/04
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#14
L
79-81
79
81
-2
72avg 71
H20/04
BNXT League
Limburg
#4
L
71-74
71
74
-3
59avg 71
A25/04
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#10
L
83-88
83
88
-5
70avg 71
H30/04
BNXT League
Antwerp Giants
#6
L
82-99
82
99
-17
81avg 71
H03/05
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-13
20-12
14-25
19-27
7-25
18-22
15-25
23-26
21-24
21-21
11-19
32-17
18-14
21-20
9-20
23-14
25-20
20-22
14-17
18-12
34-14
25-25
14-24
21-11
20-17
25-18
12-26
22-20
21-16
18-25
17-15
15-18
25-29
17-29
23-10
18-20
20-33
18-25
20-21
24-20
158.5Avg total
77.4Scored
81.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)77.480.3157.7-2.950%
Season at home (18)78.079.9157.9-1.944%
Season away (16)76.880.7157.4-3.956%
Last 10 (10)77.481.1158.5-3.740%
Last 5 (5)81.883.2165.0-1.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)73.782.6156.3-8.933%
vs Similar (7)79.379.3158.6+0.057%
vs Weaker (7)80.775.1155.9+5.671%
This opponent (Mechelen) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -5.3-5.3Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +3.0+3.0
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -5.3-5.3Q4Q4: +2.1+2.1Q4: +3.0+3.0
MechelenLeiden
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MechelenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Antwerp Giants
#6
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A16/03
BNXT League
Circus Brussels
#5
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A28/03
BNXT League
Kortrijk
#1
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H02/04
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#14
W
56-29
56
29
+27
H12/04
BNXT League
Oostende
#2
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H18/04
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#9
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A20/04
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#17
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A23/04
BNXT League
Den Helder
#16
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H26/04
BNXT League
Okapi Aalst
#13
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H30/04
BNXT League
Spirou Charleroi
#11
L
36-50
36
50
-14
A03/05
BNXT League
82.8Avg total
43.2Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)41.138.679.7+2.566%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.838.179.9+3.671%-
Last 30 away (15)40.539.079.5+1.560%-
Last 10 (10)43.239.682.8+3.660%-
Last 5 (5)41.639.280.8+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)36.540.276.8-3.850%-
vs Similar (9)42.742.885.4-0.156%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)41.435.877.2+5.675%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Donar Groningen
#2
W
36-25
36
25
+11
A21/03
DBL Cup
Leuven Bears
#7
L
25-47
25
47
-22
A29/03
BNXT League
BAL Weert
#18
L
42-45
42
45
-3
H05/04
BNXT League
QSTA Utd
#19
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H09/04
BNXT League
Belfius Mons
#9
W
45-42
45
42
+3
A12/04
BNXT League
Feyenoord
#17
W
59-39
59
39
+20
A18/04
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#14
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H20/04
BNXT League
Limburg
#4
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A25/04
BNXT League
LWD Basket
#10
L
42-58
42
58
-16
H30/04
BNXT League
Antwerp Giants
#6
L
38-58
38
58
-20
H03/05
BNXT League
83.4Avg total
41.0Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.139.079.0+1.157%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.640.079.6-0.454%-
Last 30 away (17)40.438.278.6+2.259%-
Last 10 (10)41.042.483.4-1.450%-
Last 5 (5)44.646.290.8-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)36.941.978.7-5.040%-
vs Similar (7)39.939.179.0+0.757%-
vs Weaker (7)43.634.478.0+9.186%-
This opponent (Mechelen) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Mechelentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Mechelen: 81.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.3 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.819.8
51.0%
52.6%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.9
37.9%
34.1%26.7
🏀 Free throws21.215.3
72.2%
71.9%15.3
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 78.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.3 points a game
50%
32%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.921.7
53.1%
52.6%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.67.1
32.9%
34.1%21.3
🏀 Free throws18.413.7
74.5%
71.9%13.7
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Mechelen
LLWWLWWWWL
Leiden
LLLLWWWWLL
#3
League position
#12
+9.0
Net rating
-2.5
107.0
Offensive rating
107.3
97.9
Defensive rating
109.8
53.2%
Effective FG%
51.8%
46.5%
Opp. effective FG%
57.4%
17.9%
Turnover %
16.6%
24.4%
Off. rebound %
27.7%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.29
37.9%
3-point %
32.9%
61.0%
Assist %
69.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence107.0 · 107.3Defence97.9 · 109.8Shooting53.2% · 51.8%3-point %37.9% · 32.9%Ball care17.9% · 16.6%Off. rebounds24.4% · 27.7%Free throws0.34 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Mechelen   ■ Leiden
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Mechelen wins
1
Leiden wins
DateGameScore
07/12/24Leiden v Mechelen69-81
29/03/23Leiden v Mechelen75-77
04/03/23Mechelen v Leiden80-79
29/04/22Leiden v Mechelen84-67
04/03/22Mechelen v Leiden98-93
Mechelenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/25ASpirou Charleroi75-89
30/04/25HOkapi Aalst78-79
26/04/25HDen Helder93-67
23/04/25AFeyenoord95-66
20/04/25ABelfius Mons61-81
18/04/25HOostende74-64
12/04/25HDonar Groningen85-62
02/04/25HKortrijk93-91 OT
28/03/25ACircus Brussels87-74
16/03/25AAntwerp Giants79-84
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/25HAntwerp Giants82-99
30/04/25HLWD Basket83-88
25/04/25ALimburg71-74
20/04/25HDonar Groningen79-81
18/04/25AFeyenoord94-74
12/04/25ABelfius Mons77-71
09/04/25HQSTA Utd71-68
05/04/25HBAL Weert85-81
29/03/25ALeuven Bears63-98
21/03/25ADonar Groningen69-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mechelen
BNXT League 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL71%
HomeWWWWL81%
AwayLWLWL61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341618
Win %71%81%61%
Points / game81.583.180.1
Allowed / game75.373.077.3
Point differential+6.2+10.1+2.8
Avg total156.8156.1157.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%50%39%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (11)57% (7)50% (4)
Overtime %3%6%0%
Leiden
BNXT League 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL50%
HomeWWLLL44%
AwayWLWWL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341816
Win %50%44%56%
Points / game77.478.076.8
Allowed / game80.379.980.7
Point differential-2.9-1.9-3.9
Avg total157.7157.9157.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%22%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (13)43% (7)83% (6)
Overtime %6%0%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kortrijk35251071%93.277.9+15.3
2 Oostende35251071%86.275.4+10.8
3 Limburg35251071%81.375.4+5.9
4 Mechelen34241071%81.575.3+6.2
5 Circus Brussels35241169%78.575.9+2.6
6 Antwerp Giants35221363%84.081.0+3.0
7 Leuven Bears35211460%79.873.9+5.9
8 Den Bosch36211558%83.479.9+3.5
9 Spirou Charleroi35191654%79.975.2+4.7
10 Belfius Mons35191654%79.978.6+1.2
11 LWD Basket35191654%82.183.1-1.1
12 Leiden34171750%77.480.3-2.9
13 Okapi Aalst35161946%80.080.1-0.1
14 Zwolle35122334%81.985.4-3.6
15 Donar Groningen35122334%77.683.6-6.0
16 Den Helder35122334%73.183.1-10.0
17 Feyenoord3592626%77.987.1-9.1
18 BAL Weert3562917%70.584.7-14.2
19 QSTA Utd3543111%76.288.4-12.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Mechelen1721161670
Leiden1724161168
← all games of the day
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