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Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Projected 113-117
Projected total 230.9
Scheduled
Position#17
Record5-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game120.0
Vs
38%
62%
■ MIA 38%■ OKC 62%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
3.3/10
Below normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Position#10
Record8-4
FormWWWLL
Points / game111.1
Allowed / game106.9
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Oklahoma City Thunder
22 Nov 2026
MIA v OKC
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
MIA122
OKC120
20 Dec 2024
MIA97
OKC104
10 Jan 2024
MIA120
OKC128
10 Jan 2023
MIA112
OKC111
18 Mar 2022
MIA120
OKC108
04 Jan 2021
MIA118
OKC90
01 Feb 2019
MIA102
OKC118
09 Apr 2018
MIA93
OKC115
27 Dec 2016
MIA94
OKC106
03 Dec 2015
MIA97
OKC95
20 Jan 2015
MIA86
OKC94
29 Jan 2014
MIA95
OKC112
25 Dec 2012
MIA103
OKC97
21 Jun 2012
MIA121
OKC106
19 Jun 2012
MIA104
OKC98
17 Jun 2012
MIA91
OKC85
04 Apr 2012
MIA98
OKC93
16 Mar 2011
MIA85
OKC96
17 Nov 2009
MIA87
OKC100
06 Dec 2008
MIA105
OKC99
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Miami Heat host Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA. Pythia makes Oklahoma City Thunder the favourite at 62% and projects 113-117, about 231 points in all. Overtime chance: 6%. Miami Heat are 5-6 this season (115.7 scored, 120.0 allowed a game), form LWLWW; Oklahoma City Thunder are 8-4 this season (111.1 scored, 106.9 allowed a game), form WWWLL.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
38.0%fair 2.63
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Oklahoma City Thunder win
62.0%fair 1.61
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#7
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 112
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#23
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 112
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 112
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 112
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 112
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 112
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 112
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 112
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 112
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 112
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
235.6Avg total
116.7Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7120.0235.7-4.345%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)116.7118.9235.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)112.6118.2230.8-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar (13)121.4123.8245.2-2.438%
vs Weaker (8)126.4119.2245.6+7.175%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
108-101
108
101
+7
97avg 106
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
125-114
125
114
+11
119avg 106
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
96-120
96
120
-24
76avg 106
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#6
L
98-119
98
119
-21
72avg 106
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
117-112
117
112
+5
95avg 106
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
124-116
124
116
+8
116avg 106
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
128-97
128
97
+31
117avg 106
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#24
W
114-75
114
75
+39
114avg 106
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
L
103-123
103
123
-20
93avg 106
A11/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
L
108-118
108
118
-10
94avg 106
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
20-26
34-30
31-25
33-27
34-26
32-32
26-29
30-33
29-32
22-29
15-26
26-35
25-27
24-30
23-27
26-30
33-18
31-36
27-28
37-20
23-24
28-30
36-42
35-28
36-21
27-27
30-21
25-19
32-17
33-23
24-16
27-26
32-33
21-38
23-26
32-28
18-28
35-32
23-30
221.6Avg total
112.1Scored
109.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)111.1106.9218.0+4.267%
Season at home (5)113.498.0211.4+15.4100%
Season away (7)109.4113.3222.7-3.943%
Last 10 (10)112.1109.5221.6+2.660%
Last 5 (5)115.4105.8221.2+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)107.0111.5218.5-4.550%
vs Similar (14)109.6111.4221.0-1.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)118.2107.1225.3+11.186%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%10%1%1851%1902%1953%2005%2057%2108%21510%22010%22510%23010%2359%2407%2455%2504%2553%2602%2651%2701%2750%2800%285
1%1903%2007%21010%22010%2309%2405%2503%2601%2700%280
Pythia expects about 231 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 230-234 (10%).
Over/Under 220.5
Over 220.5
70.5%
Under 220.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225.5
Over 225.5
60.5%
Under 225.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230.5
Over 230.5
49.8%
Under 230.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Miami Heat total 109.5
Over 109.5
62.3%
Under 109.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami Heat total 113.5
Over 113.5
49.1%
Under 113.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miami Heat total 117.5
Over 117.5
36.2%
Under 117.5
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oklahoma City Thunder total 108
Over 108
79.6%
Under 108
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oklahoma City Thunder total 112
Over 112
68.4%
Under 112
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oklahoma City Thunder total 116
Over 116
55.1%
Under 116
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%9%0%-420%-391%-361%-332%-303%-273%-244%-216%-187%-158%-128%-99%-69%-35%+07%+37%+66%+94%+123%+152%+182%+211%+241%+271%+30
0%-421%-362%-303%-246%-188%-129%-65%+07%+64%+122%+181%+241%+30
Margin from Miami Heat's side (positive = Miami Heat win). Pythia's expected margin is -4.0; Miami Heat win by 1+ in 34% of simulations.
Spread Miami Heat -3
MIA -3
31.8%
OKC +3
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
OKC
No market prices yet.
Spread Miami Heat 0
MIA 0
38.0%
OKC 0
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
OKC
No market prices yet.
Spread Miami Heat +3
MIA +3
44.1%
OKC -3
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
MIA
No market prices yet.
OKC
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -1.2-1.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -1.2-1.2
Miami HeatOklahoma City Thunder
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#7
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#23
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
122.2Avg total
60.9Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.462.5123.8-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.462.4124.9+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.3122.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)61.862.4124.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar (13)57.862.7120.5-4.838%-
vs Weaker (8)68.660.0128.6+8.675%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
67-53
67
53
+14
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#6
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
59-48
59
48
+11
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
60-44
60
44
+16
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
71-49
71
49
+22
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#24
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
D
59-59
59
59
+0
A11/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#8
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A12/11
NBA
109.4Avg total
57.6Scored
51.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.553.4110.9+4.153%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.151.8108.9+5.357%-
Last 30 away (16)57.954.8112.6+3.150%-
Last 10 (10)57.651.8109.4+5.850%-
Last 5 (5)59.448.8108.2+10.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.053.0111.0+5.050%-
vs Similar (14)55.653.3108.9+2.443%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)59.353.5112.8+5.864%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.129.7
55.9%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.6
35.1%
35.1%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.118.7
74.5%
77.1%18.7
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 105.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.527.5
48.7%
54.0%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.710.6
32.4%
35.1%31.8
🏀 Free throws22.519.1
84.9%
77.1%19.1
They take 89.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWLLL
Oklahoma City Thunder
LLWWWWLLWW
#17
League position
#10
-0.5
Net rating
-3.0
111.7
Offensive rating
101.5
112.2
Defensive rating
104.5
54.5%
Effective FG%
48.7%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
11.9%
Turnover %
13.5%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
25.5%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.1%
3-point %
32.4%
66.3%
Assist %
59.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 101.5Defence112.2 · 104.5Shooting54.5% · 48.7%3-point %35.1% · 32.4%Ball care11.9% · 13.5%Off. rebounds19.3% · 25.5%Free throws0.27 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Oklahoma City Thunder
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26APortland Trail Blazers108-118
11/11/26APortland Trail Blazers103-123
08/11/26HWashington Wizards114-75
07/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies128-97
05/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers124-116
03/11/26ACleveland Cavaliers117-112
01/11/26AHouston Rockets98-119
29/10/26ADallas Mavericks96-120
27/10/26HPhoenix Suns125-114
25/10/26HLos Angeles Clippers108-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%25%57%
Points / game115.7117.8114.6
Allowed / game120.0124.2117.6
Point differential-4.3-6.5-3.0
Avg total235.7242.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%14%
Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL67%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %67%100%43%
Points / game111.1113.4109.4
Allowed / game106.998.0113.3
Point differential+4.2+15.4-3.9
Avg total218.0211.4222.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%60%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
2 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
3 San Antonio Spurs1210283%119.2108.0+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
5 Minnesota Timberwolves129375%119.3105.9+13.4
6 Houston Rockets129375%115.4106.5+8.9
7 Detroit Pistons118373%115.5107.8+7.7
8 Portland Trail Blazers118373%119.5112.3+7.3
9 Golden State Warriors128467%119.3111.5+7.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder128467%111.1106.9+4.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies117464%117.9111.9+6.0
12 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
13 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
14 Dallas Mavericks127558%113.2112.2+1.0
15 New York Knicks116555%110.3103.5+6.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers126650%116.4114.3+2.1
17 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic114736%108.5114.0-5.5
21 Indiana Pacers124833%111.6114.0-2.4
22 New Orleans Pelicans124833%116.9124.2-7.3
23 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
24 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls101910%113.3128.8-15.5
28 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
29 Utah Jazz121118%106.6118.1-11.5
30 Milwaukee Bucks121118%106.8121.3-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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