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Mt Gambier vs Geelong Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 18 May 2025
Tip-off: 04:30
Final 94-88
37-25 16-31 17-18 24-14
Position#2
Record6-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game94.7
Allowed / game84.0
vs
Position#17
Record4-5
FormWWLWL
Points / game81.6
Allowed / game86.7
AustraliaNBL1 South
Other2025
Meetings · Mt Gambier v Geelong
18 May 2025
MT G94
GEEL88
31 May 2024
MT G77
GEEL84
23 Jun 2023
MT G100
GEEL90
20 May 2022
MT G82
GEEL83
23 Jun 2017
MT G104
GEEL94
15 Jul 2016
MT G87
GEEL98
07 Aug 2015
MT G68
GEEL69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mt Gambier winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Geelong winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Mt GambierAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
L
82-91
82
91
-9
H27/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
108-58
108
58
+50
A29/03
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
100-76
100
76
+24
A30/03
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
80-81
80
81
-1
H04/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
89-64
89
64
+25
H11/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
89-80
89
80
+9
H12/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
105-73
105
73
+32
H25/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
88-118
88
118
-30
A03/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
100-115
100
115
-15
A04/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
93-91
93
91
+2
A10/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-25
18-19
23-21
22-26
32-12
26-19
23-11
27-16
28-15
24-19
27-20
21-22
26-22
13-20
19-21
22-18
17-11
26-25
21-19
25-9
25-20
26-19
21-21
17-20
17-16
30-16
27-23
31-18
20-34
30-27
9-26
29-31
25-34
27-27
26-25
22-29
23-23
28-22
30-21
12-25
178.1Avg total
93.4Scored
84.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)94.784.0178.7+10.767%
Season at home (4)90.874.5165.2+16.275%
Season away (5)97.891.6189.4+6.260%
Last 10 (10)93.484.7178.1+8.760%
Last 5 (5)95.095.4190.4-0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)84.283.8168.0+0.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)92.281.7174.0+10.572%
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GeelongAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
L
81-86
81
86
-5
A20/07
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
58-108
58
108
-50
H29/03
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
98-72
98
72
+26
H05/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A11/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
89-91
89
91
-2
H12/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
W
86-82
86
82
+4
A25/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
W
78-73
78
73
+5
A26/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
73-85
73
85
-12
A03/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
88-76
88
76
+12
H10/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
76-97
76
97
-21
A16/05
NBL1 South
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-11
12-23
19-32
31-20
12-32
19-26
11-23
16-27
24-21
21-23
25-17
28-11
18-22
18-25
32-28
20-21
19-23
22-20
21-26
27-22
17-16
22-23
20-23
27-20
11-15
23-28
21-15
23-15
20-25
11-12
20-21
22-27
24-24
22-14
16-11
26-27
12-27
16-21
28-24
20-25
168.1Avg total
81.5Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)81.686.7168.2-5.144%
Season at home (4)83.286.8170.0-3.550%
Season away (5)80.286.6166.8-6.440%
Last 10 (10)81.586.6168.1-5.140%
Last 5 (5)80.282.6162.8-2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)76.887.3164.1-10.531%
vs Similar (11)84.980.5165.4+4.573%
vs Weaker (6)82.382.2164.5+0.250%
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -4.0-4.0Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +2.5+2.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: -4.0-4.0Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +2.5+2.5
Mt GambierGeelong
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Mt GambierLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H27/07
NBL1 South
Geelong
#17
W
58-31
58
31
+27
A29/03
NBL1 South
Keilor Thunder
#15
W
52-34
52
34
+18
A30/03
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H04/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H11/04
NBL1 South
Eltham
#6
W
51-39
51
39
+12
H12/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
W
47-32
47
32
+15
H25/04
NBL1 South
Ringwood
#9
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A03/05
NBL1 South
Frankston
#12
L
52-61
52
61
-9
A04/05
NBL1 South
Casey Cavaliers
#10
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A10/05
NBL1 South
90.5Avg total
48.0Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.040.787.7+6.367%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.341.787.0+3.656%-
Last 30 away (14)48.939.588.4+9.479%-
Last 10 (10)48.042.590.5+5.560%-
Last 5 (5)50.247.697.8+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)40.638.679.2+2.040%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)48.341.189.4+7.272%-
This opponent (Geelong) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GeelongLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eltham
#2
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A20/07
NBL1 South
Mt Gambier
#2
L
31-58
31
58
-27
H29/03
NBL1 South
Ballarat
#5
W
45-44
45
44
+1
H05/04
NBL1 South
Waverley
#13
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A11/04
NBL1 South
Bendigo Braves
#16
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H12/04
NBL1 South
NW Tasmania
#18
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A25/04
NBL1 South
Hobart Chargers
#8
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A26/04
NBL1 South
Sandringham Sabres
#3
L
31-37
31
37
-6
A03/05
NBL1 South
Dandenong
#14
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H10/05
NBL1 South
Knox
#1
L
28-48
28
48
-20
A16/05
NBL1 South
79.3Avg total
36.2Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.242.580.7-4.330%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.642.283.8-0.650%-
Last 30 away (16)35.242.877.9-7.612%-
Last 10 (10)36.243.179.3-6.920%-
Last 5 (5)35.641.076.6-5.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)34.843.978.8-9.115%-
vs Similar (11)41.940.882.7+1.145%-
vs Weaker (6)38.542.581.0-4.033%-
This opponent (Mt Gambier) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Mt Gambier wins
3
Geelong wins
DateGameScore
29/03/25Geelong v Mt Gambier58-108
31/05/24Mt Gambier v Geelong77-84
04/05/24Geelong v Mt Gambier81-93
23/06/23Mt Gambier v Geelong100-90
06/05/23Geelong v Mt Gambier106-105
31/07/22Geelong v Mt Gambier86-92
20/05/22Mt Gambier v Geelong82-83
09/07/21Geelong v Mt Gambier90-96
23/06/17Mt Gambier v Geelong104-94
17/06/17Geelong v Mt Gambier72-95
Mt Gambierlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/05/25ACasey Cavaliers93-91
04/05/25AFrankston100-115
03/05/25ARingwood88-118
25/04/25HWaverley105-73
12/04/25HEltham89-80
11/04/25HSandringham Sabres89-64
04/04/25HCasey Cavaliers80-81
30/03/25AKeilor Thunder100-76
29/03/25AGeelong108-58
27/07/24HEltham82-91
Geelonglast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/05/25AKnox76-97
10/05/25HDandenong88-76
03/05/25ASandringham Sabres73-85
26/04/25AHobart Chargers78-73
25/04/25ANW Tasmania86-82
12/04/25HBendigo Braves89-91
11/04/25AWaverley88-96
05/04/25HBallarat98-72
29/03/25HMt Gambier58-108
20/07/24AEltham81-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Mt Gambier
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW67%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayWWLLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %67%75%60%
Points / game94.790.897.8
Allowed / game84.074.591.6
Point differential+10.7+16.2+6.2
Avg total178.7165.2189.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%50%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Geelong
NBL1 South 2025
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL44%
HomeLWLW50%
AwayLWWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %44%50%40%
Points / game81.683.280.2
Allowed / game86.786.886.6
Point differential-5.1-3.5-6.4
Avg total168.2170.0166.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)0% (1)100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Knox109190%91.276.5+14.7
2 Casey Cavaliers107370%87.681.8+5.8
3 Mt Gambier96367%94.784.0+10.7
4 Frankston96367%92.286.0+6.2
5 Kilsyth106460%85.482.7+2.7
6 Nunawading106460%87.088.2-1.2
7 Ballarat106460%87.791.5-3.8
8 Bendigo Braves106460%89.093.0-4.0
9 Melbourne Tigers95456%86.378.4+7.9
10 Hobart Chargers105550%84.282.9+1.3
11 Eltham105550%86.787.6-0.9
12 Geelong94544%81.686.7-5.1
13 Waverley104640%89.193.7-4.6
14 Keilor Thunder104640%82.190.2-8.1
15 Ringwood103730%92.989.3+3.6
16 NW Tasmania103730%85.984.8+1.1
17 Sandringham Sabres103730%85.391.7-6.4
18 Diamond Valley103730%85.595.4-9.9
19 Dandenong102820%86.394.3-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Mt Gambier3716172494
Geelong2531181488
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