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Nacional vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 12 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 101-82
31-29 21-12 23-22 26-19
Position#2
Record18-9
FormWLWWW
Points / game91.1
Allowed / game81.7
vs
Position#3
Record19-7
FormLWWWW
Points / game91.9
Allowed / game84.8
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Aguada
Other2025-26
Meetings · Nacional v Aguada
20 Oct 2026
NACI81
AGUA83
25 May 2026
NACI74
AGUA87
18 May 2026
NACI83
AGUA96
11 Apr 2026
NACI101
AGUA82
20 Oct 2025
NACI82
AGUA79
01 Jun 2025
NACI79
AGUA77
27 May 2025
NACI103
AGUA98
22 May 2025
NACI73
AGUA82
16 May 2025
NACI102
AGUA77
13 Feb 2025
NACI91
AGUA94
24 May 2024
NACI82
AGUA97
17 May 2024
NACI98
AGUA89
08 Apr 2024
NACI83
AGUA87
17 Nov 2023
NACI77
AGUA68
31 Jan 2023
NACI87
AGUA67
14 Apr 2022
NACI85
AGUA80
09 Apr 2022
NACI84
AGUA61
11 Feb 2022
NACI86
AGUA99
16 Feb 2021
NACI74
AGUA92
09 Feb 2021
NACI74
AGUA95
24 Nov 2020
NACI97
AGUA91
12 Nov 2019
NACI99
AGUA86
06 May 2019
NACI80
AGUA83
29 Apr 2019
NACI59
AGUA77
22 Apr 2019
NACI63
AGUA85
05 Nov 2018
NACI70
AGUA77
30 Apr 2018
NACI55
AGUA74
23 Apr 2018
NACI61
AGUA79
13 Feb 2018
NACI82
AGUA80
19 Nov 2012
NACI80
AGUA77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Defensor
#7
L
73-82
73
82
-9
60avg 82
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
81-91
81
91
-10
70avg 82
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
126-75
126
75
+51
120avg 82
H19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Paisas
#8
W
97-94
97
94
+3
86avg 82
A07/03
Champions League Americas
Paisas
#8
W
96-75
96
75
+21
97avg 82
H14/03
Champions League Americas
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
111-80
111
80
+31
113avg 82
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
88-90
88
90
-2
80avg 82
H24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
80-68
80
68
+12
72avg 82
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
71-69
71
69
+2
58avg 82
A30/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
78-71
78
71
+7
72avg 82
A09/04
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-38
14-15
18-16
17-13
19-31
22-17
22-20
18-23
29-22
37-27
36-10
24-16
25-25
28-26
26-23
18-20
22-17
22-19
30-17
22-22
34-13
27-23
28-29
22-15
27-20
16-27
22-24
23-19
20-17
20-17
21-21
19-13
21-14
18-18
18-20
14-17
17-20
25-17
20-16
16-18
169.6Avg total
90.1Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)91.181.7172.8+9.467%
Season at home (12)92.875.8168.6+17.183%
Season away (15)89.786.5176.1+3.253%
Last 10 (10)90.179.5169.6+10.670%
Last 5 (5)85.675.6161.2+10.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)73.576.5150.0-3.050%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)91.580.0171.5+11.675%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Minas
#5
L
62-94
62
94
-32
49avg 83
A04/02
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
L
54-101
54
101
-47
53avg 83
H05/02
Champions League Americas
Goes
#10
W
70-64
70
64
+6
63avg 83
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
90-76
90
76
+14
87avg 83
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
85-80
85
80
+5
77avg 83
H16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
92-98
92
98
-6
80avg 83
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
86-80
86
80
+6
82avg 83
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
97-77
97
77
+20
92avg 83
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
97-81
97
81
+16
94avg 83
H20/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
88-64
88
64
+24
87avg 83
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
16-20
8-24
13-20
11-28
14-26
21-26
8-21
11-10
18-21
26-9
15-24
25-16
19-20
25-15
21-25
27-22
24-23
14-19
20-16
29-35
27-23
17-22
19-18
22-20
30-19
14-25
20-16
24-26
22-15
20-21
31-15
22-18
26-24
21-14
28-25
26-20
21-13
23-14
18-17
163.6Avg total
82.1Scored
81.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)91.984.8176.8+7.173%
Season at home (14)94.481.2175.6+13.1100%
Season away (12)89.189.1178.2+0.042%
Last 10 (10)82.181.5163.6+0.670%
Last 5 (5)92.080.0172.0+12.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)78.888.9167.7-10.136%
vs Similar (4)95.292.2187.5+3.075%
vs Weaker (15)90.580.4170.9+10.173%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -0.4-0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.1+2.1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +2.3+2.3Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: +4.5+4.5Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +1.7+1.7Q4: -0.4-0.4
NacionalAguada
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Defensor
#7
L
38-53
38
53
-15
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Paisas
#8
W
53-51
53
51
+2
A07/03
Champions League Americas
Paisas
#8
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H14/03
Champions League Americas
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
61-36
61
36
+25
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A30/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A09/04
Liga Uruguaya
89.0Avg total
46.7Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.641.488.0+5.263%-
Last 30 at home (13)47.638.586.1+9.277%-
Last 30 away (17)45.843.689.4+2.253%-
Last 10 (10)46.742.389.0+4.470%-
Last 5 (5)45.037.282.2+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)37.038.575.5-1.550%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (28)47.341.688.9+5.764%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minas
#5
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A04/02
Champions League Americas
Boca Juniors
#2
L
25-54
25
54
-29
H05/02
Champions League Americas
Goes
#10
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#1
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A16/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
48-42
48
42
+6
H20/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
47-33
47
33
+14
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
86.8Avg total
43.9Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.944.190.0+1.863%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.842.488.1+3.469%-
Last 30 away (14)46.046.192.1-0.157%-
Last 10 (10)43.942.986.8+1.060%-
Last 5 (5)49.842.692.4+7.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)42.745.488.1-2.645%-
vs Similar (4)48.244.893.0+3.575%-
vs Weaker (15)47.543.090.5+4.573%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 90.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.324.6
53.1%
53.3%49.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.88.1
31.4%
33.3%24.3
🏀 Free throws23.716.6
70.0%
70.9%16.6
They take 72.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 82.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.020.1
52.9%
53.3%40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.28.8
32.4%
33.3%26.4
🏀 Free throws21.115.7
74.4%
70.9%15.7
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WWWLWWWWLL
Aguada
WWWWLWWWLL
#2
League position
#3
+12.0
Net rating
+0.9
100.2
Offensive rating
92.5
88.1
Defensive rating
91.6
51.0%
Effective FG%
51.1%
51.0%
Opp. effective FG%
47.9%
11.3%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.32
31.4%
3-point %
32.4%
55.4%
Assist %
62.3%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence100.2 · 92.5Defence88.1 · 91.6Shooting51.0% · 51.1%3-point %31.4% · 32.4%Ball care11.3% · 15.0%Free throws0.33 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Nacional   ■ Aguada
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Nacional wins
5
Aguada wins
DateGameScore
21/12/25Aguada v Nacional98-94
21/10/25Nacional v Aguada82-79
02/06/25Nacional v Aguada79-77
31/05/25Aguada v Nacional96-97
28/05/25Nacional v Aguada103-98
26/05/25Aguada v Nacional80-72
23/05/25Nacional v Aguada73-82
20/05/25Aguada v Nacional84-75
17/05/25Nacional v Aguada102-77
13/03/25Aguada v Nacional99-81
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/04/26APenarol78-71
30/03/26AMalvin71-69
26/03/26ADefensor80-68
24/03/26HMalvin88-90
19/03/26AHebraica y Macabi111-80
14/03/26HPaisas96-75
07/03/26APaisas97-94
19/02/26HCordon126-75
16/02/26AUnion Atletica81-91
12/02/26ADefensor73-82
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/26HMalvin88-64
20/03/26HDefensor97-81
16/03/26AHebraica y Macabi97-77
10/03/26HPenarol86-80
19/02/26ADefensor92-98
16/02/26HHebraica y Macabi85-80
13/02/26HUnion Atletica90-76
10/02/26HGoes70-64
05/02/26HBoca Juniors54-101
04/02/26AMinas62-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW67%
HomeWWWWL83%
AwayLWWWW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271215
Win %67%83%53%
Points / game91.192.889.7
Allowed / game81.775.886.5
Point differential+9.4+17.1+3.2
Avg total172.8168.6176.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%75%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW73%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWLLW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %73%100%42%
Points / game91.994.489.1
Allowed / game84.881.289.1
Point differential+7.1+13.1+0.0
Avg total176.8175.6178.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%64%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)100% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol2822679%87.575.0+12.4
2 Aguada2619773%91.984.8+7.1
3 Nacional2718967%91.181.7+9.4
4 Malvin29171259%80.681.6-1.0
5 Bigua28161257%89.087.2+1.7
6 Hebraica y Macabi29161355%83.984.0-0.1
7 Union Atletica28141450%83.582.6+0.9
8 Defensor29141548%85.485.3+0.1
9 Urunday27131448%89.385.3+4.0
10 Goes2791833%83.789.1-5.4
11 Cordon2852318%80.894.4-13.6
12 Welcome2842414%81.195.8-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional31212326101
Aguada2912221982
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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