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Aguada vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 13 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:15
Final 99-81
29-13 26-24 24-28 20-16
Position#2
Record18-5
FormWWWWL
Points / game89.5
Allowed / game80.3
Aguada 🏆
Uruguay
vs
Position#1
Record21-2
FormWWLWW
Points / game94.2
Allowed / game78.0
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2024-25
Meetings · Aguada v Nacional
28 May 2026
AGUA92
NACI91
21 May 2026
AGUA89
NACI109
25 Apr 2026
AGUA94
NACI98
20 Dec 2025
AGUA98
NACI94
30 May 2025
AGUA96
NACI97
25 May 2025
AGUA80
NACI72
19 May 2025
AGUA84
NACI75
13 Mar 2025
AGUA99
NACI81
13 Dec 2024
AGUA88
NACI90
21 May 2024
AGUA92
NACI87
14 May 2024
AGUA115
NACI101
23 Mar 2024
AGUA103
NACI89
18 Jan 2024
AGUA105
NACI111
12 Dec 2022
AGUA91
NACI71
19 Apr 2022
AGUA80
NACI65
06 Apr 2022
AGUA93
NACI72
17 Nov 2021
AGUA78
NACI58
10 Apr 2021
AGUA84
NACI80
12 Feb 2021
AGUA72
NACI85
01 Dec 2020
AGUA20
NACI0
24 Jan 2020
AGUA87
NACI67
03 May 2019
AGUA78
NACI86
25 Apr 2019
AGUA69
NACI75
11 Mar 2019
AGUA123
NACI117
18 Jan 2019
AGUA96
NACI90
04 May 2018
AGUA84
NACI77
26 Apr 2018
AGUA81
NACI91
19 Apr 2018
AGUA76
NACI81
26 Mar 2018
AGUA70
NACI68
10 Nov 2017
AGUA86
NACI78
16 Oct 2013
AGUA81
NACI61
28 Sep 2012
AGUA94
NACI86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aguada winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Urupan
#10
W
91-78
91
78
+13
94avg 86
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
L
88-96
88
96
-8
72avg 86
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
95-81
95
81
+14
102avg 86
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
98-86
98
86
+12
98avg 86
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
95-86
95
86
+9
98avg 86
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
71-70
71
70
+1
59avg 86
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
94-91
94
91
+3
90avg 86
A13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
77-75
77
75
+2
69avg 86
A27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
101-72
101
72
+29
100avg 86
H04/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
85-90
85
90
-5
80avg 86
H11/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-20
19-22
17-20
25-16
23-21
19-15
20-31
26-29
26-22
25-23
20-17
24-19
27-20
31-28
13-15
27-23
34-26
16-24
24-20
21-16
27-20
13-16
17-14
14-20
22-19
36-20
15-26
21-26
22-15
19-12
13-17
23-31
25-21
34-19
28-17
14-15
24-23
29-27
18-19
14-21
172.0Avg total
89.5Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)89.580.3169.7+9.278%
Season at home (12)90.379.5169.8+10.883%
Season away (11)88.581.1169.6+7.573%
Last 10 (10)89.582.5172.0+7.080%
Last 5 (5)85.679.6165.2+6.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)91.090.5181.5+0.550%
vs Similar (9)84.479.9164.3+4.678%
vs Weaker (19)90.679.5170.1+11.284%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Penarol
#3
W
89-85
89
85
+4
86avg 81
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
L
77-81
77
81
-4
69avg 81
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
96-81
96
81
+15
93avg 81
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
117-69
117
69
+48
128avg 81
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
121-65
121
65
+56
121avg 81
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
86-79
86
79
+7
77avg 81
A07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
99-79
99
79
+20
99avg 81
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
91-94
91
94
-3
75avg 81
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
102-96 OT
102
96
+6
91avg 81
A05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
W
90-72
90
72
+18
86avg 81
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-23
26-17
22-25
17-20
16-13
22-20
21-13
18-35
23-17
16-19
26-26
31-19
28-21
29-23
30-13
30-12
27-25
36-10
29-14
29-16
20-17
27-17
17-23
22-22
33-16
24-24
22-16
20-23
19-22
20-36
26-15
26-21
24-19
20-26
27-26
17-17
26-18
14-25
26-9
24-20
176.9Avg total
96.8Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)94.278.0172.2+16.191%
Season at home (12)93.178.7171.8+14.483%
Season away (11)95.477.4172.7+18.0100%
Last 10 (10)96.880.1176.9+16.780%
Last 5 (5)93.684.0177.6+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)92.098.2190.2-6.225%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)92.276.7168.9+15.592%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.3+5.3Q1: +4.9+4.9Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +6.6+6.6Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: +2.9+2.9
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +5.3+5.3Q1: +4.9+4.9Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +6.6+6.6Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: +2.9+2.9
AguadaNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Urupan
#10
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H17/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A24/01
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
51-45
51
45
+6
A28/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
58-48
58
48
+10
H31/01
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
D
50-50
50
50
+0
H04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
W
58-39
58
39
+19
A13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A27/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
59-40
59
40
+19
H04/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
53-50
53
50
+3
H11/03
Liga Uruguaya
91.4Avg total
50.1Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.640.787.3+6.083%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.242.391.5+6.993%-
Last 30 away (15)44.139.183.1+5.073%-
Last 10 (10)50.141.391.4+8.890%-
Last 5 (5)50.238.488.6+11.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)54.038.592.5+15.5100%-
vs Similar (9)43.841.985.7+1.978%-
vs Weaker (19)47.240.387.5+6.984%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Penarol
#3
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
57-44
57
44
+13
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
63-35
63
35
+28
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
47-34
47
34
+13
A07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
57-40
57
40
+17
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
39-58
39
58
-19
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H10/03
Liga Uruguaya
88.2Avg total
47.4Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.740.687.3+6.167%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.941.188.0+5.967%-
Last 30 away (15)46.440.186.5+6.367%-
Last 10 (10)47.440.888.2+6.670%-
Last 5 (5)45.444.089.4+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)46.051.297.2-5.225%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)46.839.085.7+7.873%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 88.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.021.3
54.6%
51.5%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.110.3
33.1%
33.0%30.9
🏀 Free throws19.915.4
77.4%
71.7%15.4
They take 70.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 96.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.123.6
53.5%
51.5%47.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.7
37.2%
33.0%32.1
🏀 Free throws24.516.9
69.0%
71.7%16.9
They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Aguada
LWWWWWWWLW
Nacional
WWLWWWWWLW
#2
League position
#1
+9.6
Net rating
+20.4
112.4
Offensive rating
116.2
102.8
Defensive rating
95.8
52.4%
Effective FG%
54.4%
49.2%
Opp. effective FG%
47.2%
16.1%
Turnover %
14.2%
32.2%
Off. rebound %
31.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.1%
3-point %
37.2%
66.5%
Assist %
63.6%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence112.4 · 116.2Defence102.8 · 95.8Shooting52.4% · 54.4%3-point %33.1% · 37.2%Ball care16.1% · 14.2%Off. rebounds32.2% · 31.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Aguada   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Aguada wins
4
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
13/02/25Nacional v Aguada91-94
13/12/24Aguada v Nacional88-90
25/05/24Nacional v Aguada82-97
21/05/24Aguada v Nacional92-87
18/05/24Nacional v Aguada98-89
15/05/24Aguada v Nacional115-101
09/04/24Nacional v Aguada83-87
24/03/24Aguada v Nacional103-89
19/01/24Aguada v Nacional105-111 OT
18/11/23Nacional v Aguada77-68
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/25HMalvin85-90
04/03/25HWelcome101-72
27/02/25ATrouville77-75
13/02/25ANacional94-91
07/02/25HMalvin71-70
04/02/25HHebraica y Macabi95-86
31/01/25HUrunday98-86
28/01/25ABigua95-81
24/01/25ACordon88-96
17/01/25HUrupan91-78
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/25HPenarol90-72
05/03/25ABigua102-96 OT
13/02/25HAguada91-94
10/02/25HUrunday99-79
07/02/25ACordon86-79
03/02/25AUrupan121-65
30/01/25AWelcome117-69
27/01/25HDefensor96-81
23/01/25HTrouville77-81
19/01/25APenarol89-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL78%
HomeWWWWL83%
AwayWLWWW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %78%83%73%
Points / game89.590.388.5
Allowed / game80.379.581.1
Point differential+9.2+10.8+7.5
Avg total169.7169.8169.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%58%45%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)33% (3)100% (3)
Overtime %4%0%9%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW91%
HomeLWWLW83%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %91%83%100%
Points / game94.293.195.4
Allowed / game78.078.777.4
Point differential+16.1+14.4+18.0
Avg total172.2171.8172.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+70%75%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)33% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %4%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional2321291%94.278.0+16.1
2 Aguada2318578%89.580.3+9.2
3 Penarol2317674%84.174.5+9.6
4 Malvin2315865%81.176.9+4.2
5 Defensor23121152%87.782.5+5.1
6 Bigua24111346%85.085.7-0.8
7 Cordon23101343%82.985.7-2.8
8 Hebraica y Macabi24101442%84.787.4-2.7
9 Urupan2491538%81.387.0-5.7
10 Urunday2481633%80.386.2-5.9
11 Welcome2461825%78.293.6-15.5
12 Trouville2442017%74.383.6-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Aguada2926242099
Nacional1324281681
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