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Nacional vs Aguada Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 May 2025
Tip-off: 00:15
Final 102-77
23-25 26-13 23-23 30-16
Position#1
Record29-5
FormWWLWW
Points / game92.6
Allowed / game77.2
vs
Position#2
Record28-7
FormLLWWW
Points / game90.9
Allowed / game81.8
UruguayLiga UruguayaLiga Uruguaya - Final· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2024-25
Meetings · Nacional v Aguada
20 Oct 2026
NACI81
AGUA83
25 May 2026
NACI74
AGUA87
18 May 2026
NACI83
AGUA96
11 Apr 2026
NACI101
AGUA82
20 Oct 2025
NACI82
AGUA79
01 Jun 2025
NACI79
AGUA77
27 May 2025
NACI103
AGUA98
22 May 2025
NACI73
AGUA82
16 May 2025
NACI102
AGUA77
13 Feb 2025
NACI91
AGUA94
24 May 2024
NACI82
AGUA97
17 May 2024
NACI98
AGUA89
08 Apr 2024
NACI83
AGUA87
17 Nov 2023
NACI77
AGUA68
31 Jan 2023
NACI87
AGUA67
14 Apr 2022
NACI85
AGUA80
09 Apr 2022
NACI84
AGUA61
11 Feb 2022
NACI86
AGUA99
16 Feb 2021
NACI74
AGUA92
09 Feb 2021
NACI74
AGUA95
24 Nov 2020
NACI97
AGUA91
12 Nov 2019
NACI99
AGUA86
06 May 2019
NACI80
AGUA83
29 Apr 2019
NACI59
AGUA77
22 Apr 2019
NACI63
AGUA85
05 Nov 2018
NACI70
AGUA77
30 Apr 2018
NACI55
AGUA74
23 Apr 2018
NACI61
AGUA79
13 Feb 2018
NACI82
AGUA80
19 Nov 2012
NACI80
AGUA77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Aguada winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
W
85-80
85
80
+5
75avg 85
H17/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
81-69
81
69
+12
76avg 85
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
82-85
82
85
-3
68avg 85
H31/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
94-52
94
52
+42
93avg 85
H15/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
115-64
115
64
+51
115avg 85
H19/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
96-72
96
72
+24
100avg 85
H21/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
97-61
97
61
+36
93avg 85
H28/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
77-87
77
87
-10
68avg 85
A02/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
90-82
90
82
+8
72avg 85
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
85-80
85
80
+5
71avg 85
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-23
24-15
21-21
18-21
15-15
18-19
15-21
33-14
18-23
22-32
16-11
26-19
28-16
20-10
20-7
26-19
28-18
29-15
28-14
30-17
32-18
21-20
22-22
21-12
17-18
35-17
23-16
22-10
24-26
21-19
18-24
14-18
21-20
26-15
23-22
20-25
15-23
27-16
16-25
27-16
163.4Avg total
90.2Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)92.677.2169.9+15.485%
Season at home (20)92.875.5168.3+17.485%
Season away (14)92.379.8172.1+12.586%
Last 10 (10)90.273.2163.4+17.080%
Last 5 (5)89.076.4165.4+12.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)92.878.2171.0+14.683%
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAguada
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
W
109-94
109
94
+15
119avg 86
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
83-75
83
75
+8
84avg 86
H30/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
89-77
89
77
+12
92avg 86
H03/04
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
95-90
95
90
+5
85avg 86
A07/04
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
99-82
99
82
+17
96avg 86
H11/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
96-99 OT
96
99
-3
86avg 86
H25/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
83-87
83
87
-4
74avg 86
A30/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
93-80
93
80
+13
88avg 86
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
83-76
83
76
+7
77avg 86
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
111-99 OT
111
99
+12
105avg 86
H12/05
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-25
28-30
24-20
26-19
19-23
22-31
25-11
17-10
26-14
25-28
23-19
15-16
28-30
23-21
23-26
21-13
23-24
22-16
30-21
24-21
26-26
17-12
29-22
18-30
23-18
22-23
23-19
15-27
21-21
23-22
23-17
26-20
15-18
24-24
20-20
24-14
19-24
23-22
22-18
24-24
180.0Avg total
94.1Scored
85.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)90.981.8172.8+9.180%
Season at home (20)93.282.0175.2+11.185%
Season away (15)88.081.5169.5+6.573%
Last 10 (10)94.185.9180.0+8.280%
Last 5 (5)93.288.2181.4+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)93.787.3181.0+6.367%
vs Similar (2)81.073.5154.5+7.5100%
vs Weaker (25)91.981.6173.5+10.384%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +6.5+6.5Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: +6.6+6.6Q4: +1.6+1.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +0.8+0.8Q2Q2: +6.5+6.5Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +4.9+4.9Q4Q4: +6.6+6.6Q4: +1.6+1.6
NacionalAguada
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
W
46-38
46
38
+8
H17/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
40-55
40
55
-15
H31/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
48-26
48
26
+22
H15/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
57-33
57
33
+24
H19/04
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H21/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
52-35
52
35
+17
H28/04
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A02/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
47-35
47
35
+12
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
84.1Avg total
46.3Scored
37.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.340.086.3+6.367%-
Last 30 at home (17)46.238.985.1+7.471%-
Last 30 away (13)46.441.487.8+5.062%-
Last 10 (10)46.337.884.1+8.570%-
Last 5 (5)47.838.486.2+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)46.340.086.3+6.367%-
This opponent (Aguada) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AguadaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cordon
#9
W
59-55
59
55
+4
H27/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
L
41-54
41
54
-13
H30/03
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H03/04
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
D
51-51
51
51
+0
A07/04
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H11/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H25/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A30/04
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H06/05
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A09/05
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H12/05
Liga Uruguaya
91.2Avg total
46.0Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.240.988.1+6.380%-
Last 30 at home (17)47.842.590.3+5.282%-
Last 30 away (13)46.538.885.3+7.877%-
Last 10 (10)46.045.291.2+0.860%-
Last 5 (5)42.642.084.6+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)54.338.092.3+16.3100%-
vs Similar (2)41.035.576.5+5.5100%-
vs Weaker (25)46.941.788.6+5.276%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 90.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.622.6
55.7%
51.5%45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.39.7
31.0%
33.0%29.1
🏀 Free throws21.915.9
72.6%
71.7%15.9
They take 71.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Aguadatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Aguada: 94.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.622.3
59.3%
51.5%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.311.2
33.6%
33.0%33.6
🏀 Free throws19.415.8
81.4%
71.7%15.8
They take 70.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WWLWWWWLWW
Aguada
WWWLLWWWWW
#1
League position
#2
+22.6
Net rating
+10.8
117.9
Offensive rating
115.5
95.3
Defensive rating
104.7
51.7%
Effective FG%
55.1%
48.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.4%
11.2%
Turnover %
14.6%
32.1%
Off. rebound %
26.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.27
31.0%
3-point %
33.6%
59.4%
Assist %
65.1%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence117.9 · 115.5Defence95.3 · 104.7Shooting51.7% · 55.1%3-point %31.0% · 33.6%Ball care11.2% · 14.6%Off. rebounds32.1% · 26.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Nacional   ■ Aguada
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Nacional wins
7
Aguada wins
DateGameScore
13/03/25Aguada v Nacional99-81
13/02/25Nacional v Aguada91-94
13/12/24Aguada v Nacional88-90
25/05/24Nacional v Aguada82-97
21/05/24Aguada v Nacional92-87
18/05/24Nacional v Aguada98-89
15/05/24Aguada v Nacional115-101
09/04/24Nacional v Aguada83-87
24/03/24Aguada v Nacional103-89
19/01/24Aguada v Nacional105-111 OT
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/05/25ADefensor85-80
06/05/25HDefensor90-82
02/05/25ADefensor77-87
28/04/25HDefensor97-61
21/04/25HHebraica y Macabi96-72
19/04/25HHebraica y Macabi115-64
15/04/25HHebraica y Macabi94-52
31/03/25HMalvin82-85
27/03/25HDefensor81-69
17/03/25HCordon85-80
Aguadalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/05/25HMalvin111-99 OT
09/05/25AMalvin83-76
06/05/25HMalvin93-80
30/04/25AMalvin83-87
25/04/25HMalvin96-99 OT
11/04/25HBigua99-82
07/04/25ABigua95-90
03/04/25HBigua89-77
30/03/25HDefensor83-75
27/03/25HCordon109-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW85%
HomeWWWWW85%
AwayWWLLW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games342014
Win %85%85%86%
Points / game92.692.892.3
Allowed / game77.275.579.8
Point differential+15.4+17.4+12.5
Avg total169.9168.3172.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%70%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)40% (5)100% (3)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Aguada
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW80%
HomeWWLWW85%
AwayWWWLW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games352015
Win %80%85%73%
Points / game90.993.288.0
Allowed / game81.882.081.5
Point differential+9.1+11.1+6.5
Avg total172.8175.2169.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+51%65%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)25% (4)80% (5)
Overtime %9%10%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional3429585%92.677.2+15.4
2 Aguada3528780%90.981.8+9.1
3 Penarol32221069%83.476.6+6.8
4 Malvin37221559%82.178.8+3.3
5 Defensor36162044%83.882.3+1.5
6 Bigua32141844%86.485.7+0.7
7 Hebraica y Macabi33141942%82.888.2-5.4
8 Urunday27111641%77.982.2-4.3
9 Cordon32131941%82.286.4-4.1
10 Urupan28101836%82.287.5-5.3
11 Remeros Mercedes31233%82.079.7+2.3
12 Welcome2891932%80.293.4-13.2
13 Trouville2742315%72.382.6-10.3
14 Ferro Carril2020%73.595.5-22.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional23262330102
Aguada2513231677
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