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Penarol vs Nacional Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 09 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 71-78
20-17 17-25 16-20 18-16
Position#1
Record22-4
FormWLWWW
Points / game88.2
Allowed / game74.3
vs
Position#2
Record17-9
FormWWLWW
Points / game91.6
Allowed / game82.1
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Palacio Penarol
Other2025-26
Meetings · Penarol v Nacional
08 Apr 2026
PENA71
NACI78
08 Dec 2025
PENA82
NACI69
18 Jan 2025
PENA85
NACI89
22 Apr 2024
PENA63
NACI67
06 Feb 2024
PENA79
NACI68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Penarol
4.6out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 87.3
92.2▲ 4.9
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 76.0
80.6▲ 4.6
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 58%
59%▲ 0%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 21.4
22.2▲ 0.8
🔥 Form · Nacional
4.2out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Below their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 90.2
89.2▼ 1.0
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 79.8
76.4▼ 3.4
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 55%
54%▼ 1%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 18.3
19.8▲ 1.5
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Welcome
#12
W
107-74
107
74
+33
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
80-91
80
91
-11
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
95-76
95
76
+19
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
84-81
84
81
+3
A04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
98-76
98
76
+22
H09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
W
100-83
100
83
+17
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
80-86
80
86
-6
A10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
88-80
88
80
+8
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
96-67
96
67
+29
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
97-87 OT
97
87
+10
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-15
25-18
24-24
31-17
20-25
21-21
19-20
20-25
26-15
28-15
17-19
24-27
24-24
24-18
22-13
14-26
31-19
18-22
19-15
30-20
23-28
23-21
28-19
26-15
20-22
19-30
25-14
16-20
20-25
23-20
20-18
25-17
19-17
25-15
26-20
26-15
20-23
22-16
17-23
22-19
172.6Avg total
92.5Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)88.274.3162.5+14.085%
Season at home (12)91.875.4167.2+16.3100%
Season away (14)85.273.3158.5+11.971%
Last 10 (10)92.580.1172.6+12.480%
Last 5 (5)92.280.6172.8+11.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)87.376.0163.3+11.377%
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#7
W
89-79
89
79
+10
H08/02
Champions League Americas
Defensor
#7
L
73-82
73
82
-9
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
81-91
81
91
-10
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
126-75
126
75
+51
H19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Paisas
#8
W
97-94
97
94
+3
A07/03
Champions League Americas
Paisas
#8
W
96-75
96
75
+21
H14/03
Champions League Americas
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
111-80
111
80
+31
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
88-90
88
90
-2
H24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
80-68
80
68
+12
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A30/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
24-18
33-24
11-10
24-38
14-15
18-16
17-13
19-31
22-17
22-20
18-23
29-22
37-27
36-10
24-16
25-25
28-26
26-23
18-20
22-17
22-19
30-17
22-22
34-13
27-23
28-29
22-15
27-20
16-27
22-24
23-19
20-17
20-17
21-21
19-13
21-14
18-18
18-20
14-17
171.5Avg total
91.2Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)91.682.1173.7+9.565%
Season at home (12)92.875.8168.6+17.183%
Season away (14)90.587.6178.1+2.950%
Last 10 (10)91.280.3171.5+10.970%
Last 5 (5)89.276.4165.6+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)69.082.0151.0-13.00%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (29)91.179.3170.4+11.876%
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +3.2+3.2Q3: +5.0+5.0Q4Q4: +3.3+3.3Q4: +2.0+2.0
PenarolNacional
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Welcome
#12
W
52-33
52
33
+19
H20/01
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Goes
#10
W
54-30
54
30
+24
H30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
48-42
48
42
+6
A04/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#5
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H09/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#9
L
46-49
46
49
-3
A19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#3
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A10/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H13/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
86.7Avg total
45.8Scored
40.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.738.683.3+6.167%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.238.183.3+7.171%-
Last 30 away (16)44.239.183.4+5.162%-
Last 10 (10)45.840.986.7+4.960%-
Last 5 (5)42.843.486.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)44.738.683.3+6.167%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Flamengo
#7
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H08/02
Champions League Americas
Defensor
#7
L
38-53
38
53
-15
A12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Union Atletica
#6
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A16/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#11
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H19/02
Liga Uruguaya
Paisas
#8
W
53-51
53
51
+2
A07/03
Champions League Americas
Paisas
#8
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H14/03
Champions League Americas
Hebraica y Macabi
#8
W
61-36
61
36
+25
A19/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
43-47
43
47
-4
H24/03
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#7
W
40-34
40
34
+6
A26/03
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A30/03
Liga Uruguaya
90.1Avg total
47.0Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.741.388.0+5.463%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.438.285.6+9.179%-
Last 30 away (16)46.144.090.1+2.150%-
Last 10 (10)47.043.190.1+3.960%-
Last 5 (5)45.437.082.4+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (1)32.040.072.0-8.00%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (29)47.241.388.5+5.866%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 92.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.923.3
58.4%
53.3%46.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.311.2
38.2%
33.3%33.6
🏀 Free throws19.012.3
64.7%
70.9%12.3
They take 69.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 91.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.9 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.624.0
53.8%
53.3%48.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.99.1
33.8%
33.3%27.3
🏀 Free throws22.815.9
69.7%
70.9%15.9
They take 71.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Penarol
WWWLWWWWLW
Nacional
WWLWWWWLLW
#1
League position
#2
+13.8
Net rating
+12.4
102.7
Offensive rating
101.6
89.0
Defensive rating
89.3
57.9%
Effective FG%
52.7%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
15.8%
Turnover %
11.5%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.32
38.2%
3-point %
33.8%
64.1%
Assist %
55.0%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence102.7 · 101.6Defence89.0 · 89.3Shooting57.9% · 52.7%3-point %38.2% · 33.8%Ball care15.8% · 11.5%Free throws0.27 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Penarol   ■ Nacional
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Penarol wins
5
Nacional wins
DateGameScore
09/12/25Penarol v Nacional82-69
14/10/25Nacional v Penarol62-87
10/03/25Nacional v Penarol90-72
19/01/25Penarol v Nacional85-89
13/11/24Nacional v Penarol80-78
23/04/24Penarol v Nacional63-67
06/04/24Nacional v Penarol94-78
07/02/24Penarol v Nacional79-68
13/12/23Nacional v Penarol77-97
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/03/26AHebraica y Macabi97-87 OT
19/03/26AMalvin96-67
13/03/26HDefensor88-80
10/03/26AAguada80-86
19/02/26AUrunday100-83
09/02/26HBigua98-76
04/02/26ADefensor84-81
30/01/26HGoes95-76
27/01/26AAguada80-91
20/01/26HWelcome107-74
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/03/26AMalvin71-69
26/03/26ADefensor80-68
24/03/26HMalvin88-90
19/03/26AHebraica y Macabi111-80
14/03/26HPaisas96-75
07/03/26APaisas97-94
19/02/26HCordon126-75
16/02/26AUnion Atletica81-91
12/02/26ADefensor73-82
08/02/26HFlamengo89-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW85%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWLWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261214
Win %85%100%71%
Points / game88.291.885.2
Allowed / game74.375.473.3
Point differential+14.0+16.3+11.9
Avg total162.5167.2158.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+73%83%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %4%0%7%
Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW65%
HomeWWWWL83%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261214
Win %65%83%50%
Points / game91.692.890.5
Allowed / game82.175.887.6
Point differential+9.5+17.1+2.9
Avg total173.7168.6178.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+58%75%43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Penarol2622485%88.274.3+14.0
2 Aguada2619773%91.984.8+7.1
3 Nacional2617965%91.682.1+9.5
4 Malvin28171161%80.981.5-0.6
5 Bigua28161257%89.087.2+1.7
6 Hebraica y Macabi28151354%83.984.4-0.5
7 Union Atletica28141450%83.582.6+0.9
8 Urunday27131448%89.385.3+4.0
9 Defensor28131546%85.285.4-0.2
10 Goes2791833%83.789.1-5.4
11 Cordon2852318%80.894.4-13.6
12 Welcome2842414%81.195.8-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penarol2017161871
Nacional1725201678
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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