Nacional vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 13 Dec 2023

Tip-off: 00:15

Final 77-97

30-20 17-26 18-22 12-29

Position#3

Record9-1

FormWWWLW

Points / game92.6

Allowed / game82.1

Nacional

Penarol 🏆

Position#2

Record5-2

FormWLWWW

Points / game83.1

Allowed / game73.4

Liga Uruguaya· Larre Borges

Other2023-24

Meetings · Nacional v Penarol

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Penarol winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Nacional

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormNacional

Date

Competition

Trouville

83-81

77avg 86

H27/10

Liga Uruguaya

Cordon

#10

98-65

+33

94avg 86

A31/10

Liga Uruguaya

Larre Borges

#13

95-67

+28

92avg 86

H03/11

Liga Uruguaya

Malvin

84-79

71avg 86

H10/11

Liga Uruguaya

Goes

#12

98-92

104avg 86

A13/11

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

77-68

71avg 86

H18/11

Liga Uruguaya

Hebraica y Macabi

107-99

107

100avg 86

A21/11

Liga Uruguaya

Urupan

91-78

+13

87avg 86

H24/11

Liga Uruguaya

Bigua

94-101

101

-7

86avg 86

A27/11

Liga Uruguaya

Defensor

99-91

82avg 86

A09/12

Liga Uruguaya

23-20

27-22

22-20

11-19

21-16

18-15

31-19

28-15

26-10

23-23

24-14

22-20

32-23

14-24

17-21

21-11

21-19

21-28

29-15

27-30

29-25

13-19

18-14

17-10

34-35

24-18

24-22

25-24

24-21

26-19

22-18

19-20

27-23

22-22

27-32

18-24

29-33

23-28

18-13

29-17

174.7Avg total

92.6Scored

82.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (10)	92.6	82.1	174.7	+10.5	90%
Season at home (5)	86.0	74.6	160.6	+11.4	100%
Season away (5)	99.2	89.6	188.8	+9.6	80%
Last 10 (10)	92.6	82.1	174.7	+10.5	90%
Last 5 (5)	93.6	87.4	181.0	+6.2	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	78.5	82.0	160.5	-3.5	42%
vs Similar ◀ (11)	79.5	80.4	159.9	-0.8	55%
vs Weaker (7)	95.1	83.3	178.4	+11.9	86%

This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Penarol

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPenarol

Date

Competition

Aguada

76-77

-1

63avg 66

A28/10

Liga Uruguaya

Hebraica y Macabi

90-73

+17

88avg 66

A02/11

Liga Uruguaya

Bigua

92-90 OT

no box

H08/11

Liga Uruguaya

Malvin

82-83

-1

72avg 66

A14/11

Liga Uruguaya

Trouville

88-52

+36

58avg 66

H23/11

Liga Uruguaya

Cordon

#10

75-67

48avg 66

A26/11

Liga Uruguaya

Defensor

79-72

67avg 66

A07/12

Liga Uruguaya

14-19

23-19

16-17

23-22

24-19

26-16

11-8

29-30

16-20

20-24

21-25

26-14

15-20

25-23

22-21

20-19

30-11

19-8

19-16

20-17

16-19

19-24

26-12

14-12

19-19

14-20

20-18

26-15

156.6Avg total

83.1Scored

73.4Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	83.1	73.4	156.6	+9.7	71%
Season at home (2)	90.0	71.0	161.0	+19.0	100%
Season away (5)	80.4	74.4	154.8	+6.0	60%
Last 10 (7)	83.1	73.4	156.6	+9.7	71%
Last 5 (5)	83.2	72.8	156.0	+10.4	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (1)	76.0	77.0	153.0	-1.0	0%
vs Weaker (6)	84.3	72.8	157.2	+11.5	83%

This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

NacionalPenarol

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.6	19.9	43.6	+3.7	70%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	24.3	20.1	44.4	+4.1	79%	-
Last 30 away (16)	23.1	19.8	42.8	+3.3	62%	-
Last 10 (10)	26.6	22.5	49.1	+4.1	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	28.6	27.4	56.0	+1.2	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	22.4	19.0	41.4	+3.4	58%	-
vs Similar ◀ (11)	24.0	20.5	44.5	+3.5	73%	-
vs Weaker (7)	25.1	20.6	45.7	+4.6	86%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (7)	19.1	18.1	37.3	+1.0	29%	-
Last 30 at home (2)	23.0	15.5	38.5	+7.5	50%	-
Last 30 away (5)	17.6	19.2	36.8	-1.6	20%	-
Last 10 (7)	19.1	18.1	37.3	+1.0	29%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.2	17.8	37.0	+1.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (1)	14.0	19.0	33.0	-5.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (6)	20.0	18.0	38.0	+2.0	33%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.9	21.4	40.3	-2.5	30%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.6	20.1	39.7	-0.4	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	18.2	22.6	40.9	-4.4	19%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.1	21.8	42.9	-0.7	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	21.2	42.8	+0.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	17.1	22.5	39.6	-5.4	25%	-
vs Similar ◀ (11)	18.3	20.5	38.8	-2.3	18%	-
vs Weaker (7)	23.0	21.0	44.0	+2.0	57%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (7)	20.9	19.1	40.0	+1.7	57%	-
Last 30 at home (2)	19.5	16.0	35.5	+3.5	50%	-
Last 30 away (5)	21.4	20.4	41.8	+1.0	60%	-
Last 10 (7)	20.9	19.1	40.0	+1.7	57%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	19.8	39.2	-0.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (1)	23.0	19.0	42.0	+4.0	100%	-
vs Weaker (6)	20.5	19.2	39.7	+1.3	50%	-

NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Trouville

50-42

H27/10

Liga Uruguaya

Cordon

#10

39-31

A31/10

Liga Uruguaya

Larre Borges

#13

49-33

+16

H03/11

Liga Uruguaya

Malvin

46-47

-1

H10/11

Liga Uruguaya

Goes

#12

42-47

-5

A13/11

Liga Uruguaya

Aguada

42-44

-2

H18/11

Liga Uruguaya

Hebraica y Macabi

58-53

A21/11

Liga Uruguaya

Urupan

50-40

+10

H24/11

Liga Uruguaya

Bigua

49-45

A27/11

Liga Uruguaya

Defensor

52-61

-9

A09/12

Liga Uruguaya

92.0Avg total

47.7Scored

44.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	42.5	41.4	83.9	+1.2	53%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	43.9	40.2	84.1	+3.7	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	41.3	42.4	83.7	-1.1	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	47.7	44.3	92.0	+3.4	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	50.2	48.6	98.8	+1.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	39.5	41.5	81.0	-2.0	42%	-
vs Similar ◀ (11)	42.3	41.1	83.4	+1.2	45%	-
vs Weaker (7)	48.1	41.6	89.7	+6.6	86%	-

This opponent (Penarol) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Aguada

37-38

-1

A28/10

Liga Uruguaya

Hebraica y Macabi

50-35

+15

A02/11

Liga Uruguaya

Bigua

36-44

-8

H08/11

Liga Uruguaya

Malvin

40-43

-3

A14/11

Liga Uruguaya

Trouville

49-19

+30

H23/11

Liga Uruguaya

Cordon

#10

35-43

-8

A26/11

Liga Uruguaya

Defensor

33-39

-6

A07/12

Liga Uruguaya

77.3Avg total

40.0Scored

37.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (7)	40.0	37.3	77.3	+2.7	29%	-
Last 30 at home (2)	42.5	31.5	74.0	+11.0	50%	-
Last 30 away (5)	39.0	39.6	78.6	-0.6	20%	-
Last 10 (7)	40.0	37.3	77.3	+2.7	29%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.6	37.6	76.2	+1.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (1)	37.0	38.0	75.0	-1.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (6)	40.5	37.2	77.7	+3.3	33%	-

This opponent (Nacional) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.1	19.5	38.6	-0.4	47%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	18.1	19.1	37.2	-0.9	50%	-
Last 30 away (16)	19.9	19.8	39.8	+0.1	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.2	18.8	42.0	+4.4	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.8	19.8	41.6	+2.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	17.0	19.0	36.0	-2.0	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (11)	17.3	19.6	36.9	-2.4	36%	-
vs Weaker (7)	25.6	20.0	45.6	+5.6	86%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (7)	19.3	16.7	36.0	+2.6	71%	-
Last 30 at home (2)	20.0	20.5	40.5	-0.5	50%	-
Last 30 away (5)	19.0	15.2	34.2	+3.8	80%	-
Last 10 (7)	19.3	16.7	36.0	+2.6	71%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	18.4	40.0	+3.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (1)	16.0	17.0	33.0	-1.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (6)	19.8	16.7	36.5	+3.2	83%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	21.1	20.9	42.0	+0.3	43%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	19.2	19.5	38.7	-0.3	43%	-
Last 30 away (16)	22.8	22.1	44.9	+0.8	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.7	19.0	40.7	+2.7	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.6	19.0	40.6	+2.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	22.0	21.5	43.5	+0.5	42%	-
vs Similar ◀ (11)	20.0	19.6	39.6	+0.4	45%	-
vs Weaker (7)	21.4	21.7	43.1	-0.3	43%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (7)	22.6	18.4	41.0	+4.1	86%	-
Last 30 at home (2)	23.0	15.5	38.5	+7.5	100%	-
Last 30 away (5)	22.4	19.6	42.0	+2.8	80%	-
Last 10 (7)	22.6	18.4	41.0	+4.1	86%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.2	15.4	36.6	+5.8	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (1)	23.0	22.0	45.0	+1.0	100%	-
vs Weaker (6)	22.5	17.8	40.3	+4.7	83%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	40.2	40.3	80.6	-0.1	50%	-
Last 30 at home (14)	37.4	38.6	75.9	-1.2	57%	-
Last 30 away (16)	42.8	41.9	84.6	+0.9	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	44.9	37.8	82.7	+7.1	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.4	38.8	82.2	+4.6	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)	39.0	40.5	79.5	-1.5	33%	-
vs Similar ◀ (11)	37.3	39.3	76.5	-2.0	55%	-
vs Weaker (7)	47.0	41.7	88.7	+5.3	71%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (7)	41.9	35.1	77.0	+6.7	86%	-
Last 30 at home (2)	43.0	36.0	79.0	+7.0	100%	-
Last 30 away (5)	41.4	34.8	76.2	+6.6	80%	-
Last 10 (7)	41.9	35.1	77.0	+6.7	86%	-
Last 5 (5)	42.8	33.8	76.6	+9.0	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar ◀ (1)	39.0	39.0	78.0	+0.0	0%	-
vs Weaker (6)	42.3	34.5	76.8	+7.8	100%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 92.2 points a game scored

🏀🏀52%

🏀🏀🏀32%

🏀16%

🏀🏀 2-pointers47.8 pts a game · 52% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 32% of the points

🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 16% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game

49%

35%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.9	23.9	54.4%	51.0%	47.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.9	9.8	36.4%	33.3%	29.4
🏀 Free throws	20.9	15.0	71.8%	71.7%	15.0

They take 70.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 80.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀50%

🏀🏀🏀36%

🏀14%

🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 50% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 36% of the points

🏀 Free throws11.5 pts a game · 14% of the points

League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game

49%

35%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.8	20.0	52.9%	51.0%	40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.3	9.5	31.3%	33.3%	28.5
🏀 Free throws	14.8	11.5	77.5%	71.7%	11.5

They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.3	20.9	48.3%	51.0%	41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.9	9.3	34.6%	33.3%	27.9
🏀 Free throws	17.6	11.7	66.5%	71.7%	11.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.8	18.0	50.2%	51.0%	36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.7	7.5	26.2%	33.3%	22.5
🏀 Free throws	15.0	11.8	78.9%	71.7%	11.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.3	20.9	48.3%	51.0%	41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.9	9.3	34.6%	33.3%	27.9
🏀 Free throws	17.6	11.7	66.5%	71.7%	11.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.8	18.0	50.2%	51.0%	36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.7	7.5	26.2%	33.3%	22.5
🏀 Free throws	15.0	11.8	78.9%	71.7%	11.8

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/6 games with a box score before 13 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Nacional

WLWWWWWWWW

Penarol

WWWLWWL

League position

+13.3

Net rating

+13.0

113.5

Offensive rating

107.9

100.2

Defensive rating

94.9

54.5%

Effective FG%

50.2%

49.6%

Opp. effective FG%

45.3%

15.6%

Turnover %

13.1%

29.6%

Off. rebound %

27.0%

0.30

Free-throw rate

0.22

36.4%

3-point %

31.3%

62.9%

Assist %

61.0%

90%

Form (last 10/7)

71%

Profile

■ Nacional ■ Penarol

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Nacional wins

Penarol wins

No previous meetings.

Nacionallast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
09/12/23	A	Defensor	99-91
27/11/23	A	Bigua	94-101
24/11/23	H	Urupan	91-78
21/11/23	A	Hebraica y Macabi	107-99
18/11/23	H	Aguada	77-68
13/11/23	A	Goes	98-92
10/11/23	H	Malvin	84-79
03/11/23	H	Larre Borges	95-67
31/10/23	A	Cordon	98-65
27/10/23	H	Trouville	83-81

Penarollast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
07/12/23	A	Defensor	79-72
26/11/23	A	Cordon	75-67
23/11/23	H	Trouville	88-52
14/11/23	A	Malvin	82-83
08/11/23	H	Bigua	92-90 OT
02/11/23	A	Hebraica y Macabi	90-73
28/10/23	A	Aguada	76-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional

Liga Uruguaya 2023-24

Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWLW	90%
Home	WWWWW	100%
Away	WWWLW	80%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	10	5	5
Win %	90%	100%	80%
Points / game	92.6	86.0	99.2
Allowed / game	82.1	74.6	89.6
Point differential	+10.5	+11.4	+9.6
Avg total	174.7	160.6	188.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	30%	40%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	100% (2)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Penarol

Liga Uruguaya 2023-24

Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Losses (last 7)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLWWW	71%
Home	WW	100%
Away	LWLWW	60%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	2	5
Win %	71%	100%	60%
Points / game	83.1	90.0	80.4
Allowed / game	73.4	71.0	74.4
Point differential	+9.7	+19.0	+6.0
Avg total	156.6	161.0	154.8
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	29%	50%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	100% (1)	0% (2)
Overtime %	14%	50%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Nacional	10	9	1	90%	92.6	82.1	+10.5
2	Aguada	11	8	3	73%	85.0	78.4	+6.6
3	Penarol	7	5	2	71%	83.1	73.4	+9.7
4	Defensor	11	7	4	64%	80.5	76.1	+4.5
5	Malvin	13	7	6	54%	83.7	79.7	+4.0
6	Hebraica y Macabi	12	6	6	50%	82.4	80.7	+1.8
7	Bigua	13	6	7	46%	84.1	85.5	-1.4
8	Trouville	10	4	6	40%	80.1	83.9	-3.8
9	Goes	10	4	6	40%	82.7	86.8	-4.1
10	Cordon	11	4	7	36%	71.7	75.3	-3.5
11	Urupan	12	4	8	33%	78.5	85.0	-6.5
12	Larre Borges	12	2	10	17%	78.4	91.2	-12.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Nacional	30	17	18	12	77
Penarol	20	26	22	29	97

← all games of the day

Nacional vs Penarol Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

A Pro feature