PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Nacional vs Penarol Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 10 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 22:45
Final 90-72
26-18 14-25 26-9 24-20
Position#1
Record20-2
FormWWWLW
Points / game94.4
Allowed / game78.3
vs
Position#3
Record17-5
FormWWWWW
Points / game84.6
Allowed / game73.8
UruguayLiga Uruguaya· Polideportivo Gran Parque Central
Other2024-25
Meetings · Nacional v Penarol
22 Apr 2026
NACI82
PENA84
13 Oct 2025
NACI62
PENA87
10 Mar 2025
NACI90
PENA72
12 Nov 2024
NACI80
PENA78
05 Apr 2024
NACI94
PENA78
12 Dec 2023
NACI77
PENA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nacional winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NacionalUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNacional
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
88-67
88
67
+21
78avg 81
A14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
W
89-85
89
85
+4
86avg 81
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
L
77-81
77
81
-4
69avg 81
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
96-81
96
81
+15
93avg 81
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
117-69
117
69
+48
128avg 81
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
121-65
121
65
+56
121avg 81
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
86-79
86
79
+7
77avg 81
A07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
99-79
99
79
+20
99avg 81
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
91-94
91
94
-3
75avg 81
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
102-96 OT
102
96
+6
91avg 81
A05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-12
26-19
27-16
15-20
24-23
26-17
22-25
17-20
16-13
22-20
21-13
18-35
23-17
16-19
26-26
31-19
28-21
29-23
30-13
30-12
27-25
36-10
29-14
29-16
20-17
27-17
17-23
22-22
33-16
24-24
22-16
20-23
19-22
20-36
26-15
26-21
24-19
20-26
27-26
17-17
176.2Avg total
96.6Scored
79.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)94.478.3172.7+16.091%
Season at home (11)93.479.3172.6+14.182%
Season away (11)95.477.4172.7+18.0100%
Last 10 (10)96.679.6176.2+17.080%
Last 5 (5)99.882.6182.4+17.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)92.098.2190.2-6.225%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)91.076.8167.8+14.388%
This opponent (Penarol) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolUruguayLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPenarol
Date
Competition
Aguada
#2
L
69-77
69
77
-8
59avg 79
A15/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
85-89
85
89
-4
78avg 79
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
W
79-70
79
70
+9
73avg 79
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
93-75
93
75
+18
94avg 79
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
104-92
104
92
+12
99avg 79
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
83-80
83
80
+3
83avg 79
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
88-59
88
59
+29
84avg 79
H12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
83-72
83
72
+11
82avg 79
A14/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
85-84
85
84
+1
78avg 79
A01/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
82-68
82
68
+14
82avg 79
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
10-19
22-16
23-21
14-21
23-24
17-26
25-22
20-17
15-21
19-16
20-16
25-17
23-16
22-24
21-18
27-17
31-23
30-19
17-25
26-25
17-9
24-29
28-23
14-19
22-9
23-13
21-13
22-24
27-24
19-16
29-16
8-16
26-26
25-14
20-21
14-23
27-14
13-17
20-19
22-18
161.7Avg total
85.1Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)84.673.8158.4+10.977%
Season at home (11)81.972.1154.0+9.882%
Season away (11)87.475.5162.8+11.973%
Last 10 (10)85.176.6161.7+8.580%
Last 5 (5)84.272.6156.8+11.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)81.584.5166.0-3.00%
vs Similar (9)78.079.6157.6-1.633%
vs Weaker (19)86.971.7158.6+15.289%
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.9+4.9Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: +6.0+6.0Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: -0.5-0.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.9+4.9Q1: +3.6+3.6Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: +6.0+6.0Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: -0.5-0.5
NacionalPenarol
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NacionalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Malvin
#4
W
46-31
46
31
+15
A14/01
Liga Uruguaya
Penarol
#3
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H23/01
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
57-44
57
44
+13
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urupan
#10
W
63-35
63
35
+28
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
47-34
47
34
+13
A07/02
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
57-40
57
40
+17
H10/02
Liga Uruguaya
Aguada
#2
L
39-58
39
58
-19
H13/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A05/03
Liga Uruguaya
87.6Avg total
48.0Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.240.887.1+5.467%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.141.587.6+4.567%-
Last 30 away (15)46.440.186.5+6.367%-
Last 10 (10)48.039.687.6+8.480%-
Last 5 (5)50.042.492.4+7.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)46.051.297.2-5.225%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)46.339.285.5+7.073%-
This opponent (Penarol) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PenarolLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Aguada
#2
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A15/01
Liga Uruguaya
Nacional
#1
L
40-50
40
50
-10
H19/01
Liga Uruguaya
Malvin
#4
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H25/01
Liga Uruguaya
Trouville
#13
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H27/01
Liga Uruguaya
Cordon
#9
W
61-42
61
42
+19
A30/01
Liga Uruguaya
Urunday
#8
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A03/02
Liga Uruguaya
Welcome
#12
W
45-22
45
22
+23
H12/02
Liga Uruguaya
Bigua
#6
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A14/02
Liga Uruguaya
Defensor
#5
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A01/03
Liga Uruguaya
Hebraica y Macabi
#7
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H05/03
Liga Uruguaya
81.0Avg total
43.5Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.738.181.7+5.667%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.437.879.2+3.656%-
Last 30 away (14)46.338.484.6+7.979%-
Last 10 (10)43.537.581.0+6.070%-
Last 5 (5)44.634.278.8+10.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)41.045.086.0-4.050%-
vs Similar (9)40.739.079.7+1.733%-
vs Weaker (19)45.436.982.3+8.584%-
This opponent (Nacional) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nacionaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nacional: 95.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.224.5
54.2%
51.5%49.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.2
35.4%
33.0%30.6
🏀 Free throws23.316.2
69.5%
71.7%16.2
They take 74.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penaroltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Penarol: 84.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.1 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.221.8
54.2%
51.5%43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.49.7
35.4%
33.0%29.1
🏀 Free throws16.811.6
69.0%
71.7%11.6
They take 67.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nacional
WLWWWWWLWW
Penarol
WWWWWWWWLL
#1
League position
#3
+20.3
Net rating
+10.9
115.5
Offensive rating
108.6
95.2
Defensive rating
97.6
53.8%
Effective FG%
53.8%
47.7%
Opp. effective FG%
48.5%
14.1%
Turnover %
16.7%
31.4%
Off. rebound %
27.6%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.4%
3-point %
35.4%
62.0%
Assist %
67.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence115.5 · 108.6Defence95.2 · 97.6Shooting53.8% · 53.8%3-point %35.4% · 35.4%Ball care14.1% · 16.7%Off. rebounds31.4% · 27.6%Free throws0.31 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)80% · 80%
■ Nacional   ■ Penarol
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Nacional wins
2
Penarol wins
DateGameScore
19/01/25Penarol v Nacional85-89
13/11/24Nacional v Penarol80-78
23/04/24Penarol v Nacional63-67
06/04/24Nacional v Penarol94-78
07/02/24Penarol v Nacional79-68
13/12/23Nacional v Penarol77-97
Nacionallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/25ABigua102-96 OT
13/02/25HAguada91-94
10/02/25HUrunday99-79
07/02/25ACordon86-79
03/02/25AUrupan121-65
30/01/25AWelcome117-69
27/01/25HDefensor96-81
23/01/25HTrouville77-81
19/01/25APenarol89-85
14/01/25AMalvin88-67
Penarollast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/25HHebraica y Macabi82-68
01/03/25ADefensor85-84
14/02/25ABigua83-72
12/02/25HWelcome88-59
03/02/25AUrunday83-80
30/01/25ACordon104-92
27/01/25HTrouville93-75
25/01/25HMalvin79-70
19/01/25HNacional85-89
15/01/25AAguada69-77

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nacional
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW91%
HomeWLWWL82%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %91%82%100%
Points / game94.493.495.4
Allowed / game78.379.377.4
Point differential+16.0+14.1+18.0
Avg total172.7172.6172.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+68%73%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)33% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %5%0%9%
Penarol
Liga Uruguaya 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW77%
HomeLWWWW82%
AwayLWWWW73%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %77%82%73%
Points / game84.681.987.4
Allowed / game73.872.175.5
Point differential+10.9+9.8+11.9
Avg total158.4154.0162.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%36%55%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)67% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nacional2220291%94.478.3+16.0
2 Aguada2218482%89.779.8+9.9
3 Penarol2217577%84.673.8+10.9
4 Malvin2214864%80.776.5+4.1
5 Defensor22111150%87.682.7+4.9
6 Cordon22101245%83.185.6-2.5
7 Bigua23101343%85.186.1-1.0
8 Hebraica y Macabi23101343%85.087.7-2.6
9 Urunday2381535%79.985.7-5.8
10 Urupan2381535%81.287.4-6.2
11 Welcome2351822%77.393.8-16.4
12 Trouville2341917%74.183.5-9.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nacional2614262490
Penarol182592072
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.