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Alvark vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 06:05
Final 96-83
23-15 22-23 22-13 29-32
Position#8
Record26-12
FormWWLWW
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game76.7
vs
Position#12
Record21-17
FormWLWWL
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game81.3
JapanB League· Yoyogi National Stadium
Other2025-26
Meetings · Alvark v Saga
08 Oct 2026
ALVA90
SAGA74
15 Feb 2026
ALVA96
SAGA83
14 Feb 2026
ALVA78
SAGA71
27 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA66
26 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
Osaka
#17
W
91-76
91
76
+15
87avg 74
A24/01
B League
Osaka
#17
W
105-88
105
88
+17
109avg 74
A25/01
B League
Akita
#26
W
98-74
98
74
+24
102avg 74
A28/01
B League
Toyama
#24
W
75-66
75
66
+9
69avg 74
H31/01
B League
Toyama
#24
W
70-69
70
69
+1
56avg 74
H01/02
B League
New Taipei Kings
#8
W
92-79
92
79
+13
97avg 74
H04/02
EASL
Chiba
#6
W
75-73
75
73
+2
72avg 74
A07/02
B League
Chiba
#6
L
64-72
64
72
-8
58avg 74
A08/02
B League
Xac Broncos
#6
W
97-93
97
93
+4
94avg 74
A11/02
EASL
Saga
#12
W
78-71
78
71
+7
80avg 74
H14/02
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-28
16-15
22-17
27-16
30-21
29-24
20-23
26-20
32-18
23-14
22-22
21-20
26-13
8-23
23-17
18-13
21-24
18-24
23-8
8-13
20-13
22-24
30-20
20-22
23-20
21-21
21-16
10-16
10-23
16-18
27-14
11-17
22-20
22-21
22-24
31-28
13-15
25-20
19-27
21-9
160.6Avg total
84.5Scored
76.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)79.976.7156.5+3.268%
Season at home (19)76.373.3149.6+2.968%
Season away (19)83.580.0163.5+3.568%
Last 10 (10)84.576.1160.6+8.490%
Last 5 (5)81.277.6158.8+3.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.076.5138.5-14.50%
vs Similar ◀ (14)79.977.5157.4+2.471%
vs Weaker (14)87.176.6163.7+10.493%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Gunma
#5
W
84-78
84
78
+6
82avg 75
H03/01
B League
Gunma
#5
L
51-81
51
81
-30
36avg 75
H04/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
85-73
85
73
+12
72avg 75
A24/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
79-73
79
73
+6
65avg 75
A25/01
B League
Shimane
#14
W
95-88
95
88
+7
98avg 75
H28/01
B League
Chiba
#6
W
83-79
83
79
+4
75avg 75
H31/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
76-95
76
95
-19
63avg 75
H01/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
92-67
92
67
+25
94avg 75
A07/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
91-69
91
69
+22
86avg 75
A08/02
B League
Alvark
#8
L
71-78
71
78
-7
57avg 75
A14/02
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-25
23-18
28-20
15-15
14-19
10-17
13-25
14-20
20-23
19-16
27-10
19-24
24-23
24-17
13-17
18-16
24-21
26-21
23-29
22-17
15-20
11-22
27-18
30-19
19-23
15-18
22-32
20-22
18-18
33-25
20-16
21-8
24-22
26-22
18-11
23-14
15-13
20-25
27-19
9-21
158.8Avg total
80.7Scored
78.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)81.481.3162.8+0.155%
Season at home (20)80.882.2162.9-1.555%
Season away (18)82.280.4162.6+1.856%
Last 10 (10)80.778.1158.8+2.670%
Last 5 (5)82.677.6160.2+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)73.585.6159.1-12.130%
vs Similar ◀ (10)86.277.8164.0+8.470%
vs Weaker (10)83.275.9159.1+7.380%
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.5+1.5
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +4.1+4.1Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +1.5+1.5
AlvarkSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Osaka
#17
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A24/01
B League
Osaka
#17
W
59-45
59
45
+14
A25/01
B League
Akita
#26
W
55-32
55
32
+23
A28/01
B League
Toyama
#24
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H31/01
B League
Toyama
#24
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H01/02
B League
New Taipei Kings
#8
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H04/02
EASL
Chiba
#6
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A07/02
B League
Chiba
#6
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A08/02
B League
Xac Broncos
#6
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A11/02
EASL
Saga
#12
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H14/02
B League
82.2Avg total
42.3Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.739.280.9+2.563%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.437.777.1+1.664%-
Last 30 away (16)43.740.584.2+3.262%-
Last 10 (10)42.339.982.2+2.460%-
Last 5 (5)38.839.077.8-0.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)30.039.069.0-9.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)41.838.480.1+3.471%-
vs Weaker (14)43.240.183.3+3.164%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gunma
#5
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H03/01
B League
Gunma
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H04/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A24/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A25/01
B League
Shimane
#14
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H28/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
26-42
26
42
-16
H31/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
34-41
34
41
-7
H01/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
51-43
51
43
+8
A07/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A08/02
B League
Alvark
#8
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A14/02
B League
80.6Avg total
39.8Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.042.282.3-2.243%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.143.481.4-5.324%-
Last 30 away (13)42.640.883.4+1.869%-
Last 10 (10)39.840.880.6-1.040%-
Last 5 (5)39.241.680.8-2.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)36.242.778.9-6.520%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)41.640.982.5+0.750%-
vs Weaker (10)42.343.185.4-0.860%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 84.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.5
55.1%
53.1%39.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.19.8
36.2%
33.7%29.4
🏀 Free throws20.916.0
76.6%
73.1%16.0
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 80.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.218.5
54.1%
53.1%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.18.3
27.6%
33.7%24.9
🏀 Free throws21.918.5
84.5%
73.1%18.5
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alvark
WWLWWWWWWW
Saga
LWWLWWWWLW
#8
League position
#12
+10.6
Net rating
+3.6
100.2
Offensive rating
99.1
89.6
Defensive rating
95.5
54.7%
Effective FG%
48.1%
48.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.5%
15.1%
Turnover %
10.8%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.34
36.2%
3-point %
27.6%
73.7%
Assist %
71.6%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence100.2 · 99.1Defence89.6 · 95.5Shooting54.7% · 48.1%3-point %36.2% · 27.6%Ball care15.1% · 10.8%Off. rebounds- · 32.1%Free throws0.33 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)90% · 70%
■ Alvark   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Alvark wins
2
Saga wins
DateGameScore
14/02/26Alvark v Saga78-71
07/12/25Saga v Alvark90-77
06/12/25Saga v Alvark91-64
27/10/24Alvark v Saga79-66
26/10/24Alvark v Saga79-74
30/12/23Saga v Alvark61-94
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26HSaga78-71
11/02/26AXac Broncos97-93
08/02/26AChiba64-72
07/02/26AChiba75-73
04/02/26HNew Taipei Kings92-79
01/02/26HToyama70-69
31/01/26HToyama75-66
28/01/26AAkita98-74
25/01/26AOsaka105-88
24/01/26AOsaka91-76
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26AAlvark71-78
08/02/26AToyama91-69
07/02/26AToyama92-67
01/02/26HChiba76-95
31/01/26HChiba83-79
28/01/26HShimane95-88
25/01/26AAltiri Chiba79-73
24/01/26AAltiri Chiba85-73
04/01/26HGunma51-81
03/01/26HGunma84-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alvark
B League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW68%
HomeLWWWW68%
AwayWWWWL68%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381919
Win %68%68%68%
Points / game79.976.383.5
Allowed / game76.773.380.0
Point differential+3.2+2.9+3.5
Avg total156.5149.6163.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%32%37%
Close games (≤5 pts) won88% (8)75% (4)100% (4)
Overtime %8%5%11%
Saga
B League 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL55%
HomeWLWWL55%
AwayWWWWL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games382018
Win %55%55%56%
Points / game81.480.882.2
Allowed / game81.382.280.4
Point differential+0.1-1.4+1.8
Avg total162.8162.9162.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nagasaki3832684%93.477.9+15.5
2 Diamond Dolphins3930977%83.472.8+10.6
3 Utsunomiya Brex38281074%84.679.1+5.5
4 Chiba38271171%81.975.0+6.8
5 Hokkaido39271269%88.184.9+3.2
6 Alvark38261268%79.976.7+3.2
7 SeaHorses Mikawa39261367%84.078.5+5.5
8 Ryukyu38251366%81.875.4+6.4
9 Gunma38241463%82.874.9+7.9
10 Hiroshima D.39231659%86.083.0+2.9
11 Sendai39231659%80.178.7+1.4
12 Saga38211755%81.481.3+0.1
13 Shimane39211854%81.980.5+1.4
14 NeoPhoenix38191950%82.781.9+0.8
15 Osaka38152339%79.781.4-1.7
16 Nagoya Fighting Eagles38152339%80.982.7-1.8
17 Sun Rockers Shibuya38152339%76.081.0-4.9
18 Koshigaya Alphas38152339%73.479.7-6.3
19 Yokohama38142437%78.081.9-3.9
20 Shiga39132633%80.486.7-6.3
21 Altiri Chiba38122632%79.583.8-4.4
22 Ibaraki Robots39122731%75.279.8-4.6
23 Kyoto38102826%70.980.6-9.7
24 Toyama39102926%82.289.8-7.6
25 Brave Thunders3892924%75.483.9-8.4
26 Akita3973218%73.184.7-11.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Alvark2322222996
Saga1523133283
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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