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Alvark vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 14 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 08:05
Final 78-71
13-15 25-20 19-27 21-9
Position#8
Record25-12
FormWWWLW
Points / game79.9
Allowed / game76.8
vs
Position#12
Record21-16
FormWWLWW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game81.4
JapanB League· Yoyogi National Stadium
Other2025-26
Meetings · Alvark v Saga
08 Oct 2026
ALVA90
SAGA74
15 Feb 2026
ALVA96
SAGA83
14 Feb 2026
ALVA78
SAGA71
27 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA66
26 Oct 2024
ALVA79
SAGA74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alvark winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AlvarkJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAlvark
Date
Competition
LG Sakers
#11
W
88-81
88
81
+7
80avg 74
A21/01
EASL
Osaka
#17
W
91-76
91
76
+15
87avg 74
A24/01
B League
Osaka
#17
W
105-88
105
88
+17
109avg 74
A25/01
B League
Akita
#26
W
98-74
98
74
+24
102avg 74
A28/01
B League
Toyama
#24
W
75-66
75
66
+9
69avg 74
H31/01
B League
Toyama
#24
W
70-69
70
69
+1
56avg 74
H01/02
B League
New Taipei Kings
#8
W
92-79
92
79
+13
97avg 74
H04/02
EASL
Chiba
#6
W
75-73
75
73
+2
72avg 74
A07/02
B League
Chiba
#6
L
64-72
64
72
-8
58avg 74
A08/02
B League
Xac Broncos
#6
W
97-93
97
93
+4
94avg 74
A11/02
EASL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-30
22-13
23-23
19-15
26-28
16-15
22-17
27-16
30-21
29-24
20-23
26-20
32-18
23-14
22-22
21-20
26-13
8-23
23-17
18-13
21-24
18-24
23-8
8-13
20-13
22-24
30-20
20-22
23-20
21-21
21-16
10-16
10-23
16-18
27-14
11-17
22-20
22-21
22-24
31-28
162.6Avg total
85.5Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)79.976.8156.7+3.168%
Season at home (18)76.273.4149.6+2.767%
Season away (19)83.580.0163.5+3.568%
Last 10 (10)85.577.1162.6+8.490%
Last 5 (5)79.677.2156.8+2.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)62.076.5138.5-14.50%
vs Similar ◀ (14)79.378.2157.5+1.164%
vs Weaker (14)87.176.6163.7+10.493%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Brave Thunders
#25
W
91-84
91
84
+7
93avg 75
A27/12
B League
Gunma
#5
W
84-78
84
78
+6
82avg 75
H03/01
B League
Gunma
#5
L
51-81
51
81
-30
36avg 75
H04/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
85-73
85
73
+12
72avg 75
A24/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
79-73
79
73
+6
65avg 75
A25/01
B League
Shimane
#14
W
95-88
95
88
+7
98avg 75
H28/01
B League
Chiba
#6
W
83-79
83
79
+4
75avg 75
H31/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
76-95
76
95
-19
63avg 75
H01/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
92-67
92
67
+25
94avg 75
A07/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
91-69
91
69
+22
86avg 75
A08/02
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-21
18-17
16-22
33-24
18-25
23-18
28-20
15-15
14-19
10-17
13-25
14-20
20-23
19-16
27-10
19-24
24-23
24-17
13-17
18-16
24-21
26-21
23-29
22-17
15-20
11-22
27-18
30-19
19-23
15-18
22-32
20-22
18-18
33-25
20-16
21-8
24-22
26-22
18-11
23-14
161.4Avg total
82.7Scored
78.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)81.781.4163.1+0.357%
Season at home (20)80.882.2162.9-1.555%
Season away (17)82.880.5163.4+2.359%
Last 10 (10)82.778.7161.4+4.080%
Last 5 (5)87.479.6167.0+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)73.585.6159.1-12.130%
vs Similar ◀ (9)87.977.8165.7+10.178%
vs Weaker (11)82.777.5160.3+5.273%
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +4.9+4.9Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +3.6+3.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +4.9+4.9Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +3.6+3.6
AlvarkSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AlvarkLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
LG Sakers
#11
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A21/01
EASL
Osaka
#17
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A24/01
B League
Osaka
#17
W
59-45
59
45
+14
A25/01
B League
Akita
#26
W
55-32
55
32
+23
A28/01
B League
Toyama
#24
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H31/01
B League
Toyama
#24
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H01/02
B League
New Taipei Kings
#8
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H04/02
EASL
Chiba
#6
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A07/02
B League
Chiba
#6
L
26-41
26
41
-15
A08/02
B League
Xac Broncos
#6
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A11/02
EASL
83.8Avg total
43.1Scored
40.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.639.380.9+2.260%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.138.077.1+1.157%-
Last 30 away (16)43.740.584.2+3.262%-
Last 10 (10)43.140.783.8+2.460%-
Last 5 (5)39.041.680.6-2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)30.039.069.0-9.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)41.638.680.2+2.964%-
vs Weaker (14)43.240.183.3+3.164%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brave Thunders
#25
W
42-38
42
38
+4
A27/12
B League
Gunma
#5
L
41-43
41
43
-2
H03/01
B League
Gunma
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H04/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A24/01
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
48-40
48
40
+8
A25/01
B League
Shimane
#14
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H28/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
26-42
26
42
-16
H31/01
B League
Chiba
#6
L
34-41
34
41
-7
H01/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
51-43
51
43
+8
A07/02
B League
Toyama
#24
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A08/02
B League
81.3Avg total
40.5Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.242.782.9-2.543%-
Last 30 at home (18)38.243.881.9-5.622%-
Last 30 away (12)43.241.084.2+2.275%-
Last 10 (10)40.540.881.3-0.350%-
Last 5 (5)42.242.484.6-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)36.242.778.9-6.520%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)42.341.283.6+1.156%-
vs Weaker (11)42.143.885.9-1.755%-
This opponent (Alvark) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Alvarktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Alvark: 85.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.419.2
54.2%
53.1%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.210.0
36.8%
33.7%30.0
🏀 Free throws21.917.0
77.6%
73.1%17.0
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 82.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.518.6
55.5%
53.1%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.38.8
29.0%
33.7%26.4
🏀 Free throws22.218.8
84.7%
73.1%18.8
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Alvark
WLWWWWWWWW
Saga
WWLWWWWLWW
#8
League position
#12
+10.6
Net rating
+5.3
101.7
Offensive rating
101.9
91.1
Defensive rating
96.6
54.6%
Effective FG%
49.8%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
13.9%
Turnover %
11.5%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.35
36.8%
3-point %
29.0%
72.9%
Assist %
73.7%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence101.7 · 101.9Defence91.1 · 96.6Shooting54.6% · 49.8%3-point %36.8% · 29.0%Ball care13.9% · 11.5%Off. rebounds- · 28.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)90% · 80%
■ Alvark   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Alvark wins
2
Saga wins
DateGameScore
07/12/25Saga v Alvark90-77
06/12/25Saga v Alvark91-64
27/10/24Alvark v Saga79-66
26/10/24Alvark v Saga79-74
30/12/23Saga v Alvark61-94
29/12/23Saga v Alvark68-74
Alvarklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/26AXac Broncos97-93
08/02/26AChiba64-72
07/02/26AChiba75-73
04/02/26HNew Taipei Kings92-79
01/02/26HToyama70-69
31/01/26HToyama75-66
28/01/26AAkita98-74
25/01/26AOsaka105-88
24/01/26AOsaka91-76
21/01/26ALG Sakers88-81
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/26AToyama91-69
07/02/26AToyama92-67
01/02/26HChiba76-95
31/01/26HChiba83-79
28/01/26HShimane95-88
25/01/26AAltiri Chiba79-73
24/01/26AAltiri Chiba85-73
04/01/26HGunma51-81
03/01/26HGunma84-78
27/12/25ABrave Thunders91-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Alvark
B League 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL68%
HomeWLWWW67%
AwayWWWWL68%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371819
Win %68%67%68%
Points / game79.976.283.5
Allowed / game76.873.480.0
Point differential+3.1+2.7+3.5
Avg total156.7149.6163.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%33%37%
Close games (≤5 pts) won88% (8)75% (4)100% (4)
Overtime %8%6%11%
Saga
B League 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW57%
HomeWLWWL55%
AwayWWWWW59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games372017
Win %57%55%59%
Points / game81.780.882.8
Allowed / game81.482.280.5
Point differential+0.3-1.4+2.3
Avg total163.1162.9163.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%25%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nagasaki3832684%93.477.9+15.5
2 Diamond Dolphins3830879%83.672.5+11.1
3 Utsunomiya Brex38281074%84.679.1+5.5
4 Chiba38271171%81.975.0+6.8
5 Hokkaido38271171%88.084.1+3.9
6 Alvark37251268%79.976.8+3.1
7 Ryukyu38251366%81.875.4+6.4
8 SeaHorses Mikawa38251366%84.278.6+5.6
9 Gunma38241463%82.874.9+7.9
10 Hiroshima D.38221658%85.582.9+2.6
11 Sendai38221658%80.078.8+1.2
12 Saga37211657%81.781.4+0.3
13 Shimane38211755%82.180.6+1.6
14 NeoPhoenix38191950%82.781.9+0.8
15 Osaka37152241%80.181.6-1.5
16 Nagoya Fighting Eagles38152339%80.982.7-1.8
17 Sun Rockers Shibuya38152339%76.081.0-4.9
18 Koshigaya Alphas38152339%73.479.7-6.3
19 Yokohama38142437%78.081.9-3.9
20 Shiga38132534%80.286.2-6.1
21 Altiri Chiba38122632%79.583.8-4.4
22 Ibaraki Robots38112729%74.979.6-4.7
23 Kyoto3792824%70.981.1-10.2
24 Toyama3892924%81.489.8-8.4
25 Brave Thunders3892924%75.483.9-8.4
26 Akita3873118%72.884.6-11.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Alvark1325192178
Saga152027971
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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