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Neptunas vs Bilbao Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 24 Sep 2024
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 66-74
19-21 12-16 15-16 20-21
Position#42
Record-
FormLLWLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Neptunas
vs
Bilbao 🏆
Position#2
Record-
FormLLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
EuropeFIBA Europe CupFIBA Europe Cup - Final· Svyturio arena
European cup2024
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bilbao winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#5
W
88-84
88
84
+4
87avg 82
H13/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
W
114-112 OT
114
112
+2
112avg 82
H17/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
L
79-92
79
92
-13
80avg 82
H22/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
L
77-88
77
88
-11
68avg 82
H27/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
85-86
85
86
-1
85avg 82
H01/05
LKL
Siauliai
#10
L
98-104
98
104
-6
92avg 82
A05/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
84-91
84
91
-7
72avg 82
A13/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
95-76
95
76
+19
96avg 82
H15/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
80-91
80
91
-11
66avg 82
A18/05
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
90-84
90
84
+6
76avg 82
A21/09
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-27
23-14
31-22
14-21
19-19
19-21
23-11
26-36
26-24
20-21
12-20
21-27
27-24
18-19
10-15
22-30
15-15
31-14
21-24
18-33
19-21
33-22
19-25
27-36
22-31
20-14
21-19
21-27
30-23
23-23
26-10
16-20
16-26
15-14
26-24
23-27
19-12
17-21
22-24
32-27
179.8Avg total
89.0Scored
90.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)89.090.8179.8-1.840%
Last 5 (5)89.489.2178.6+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)85.587.5173.0-1.946%
vs Similar (5)78.878.8157.6+0.080%
vs Weaker (12)86.785.1171.8+1.650%
This opponent (Bilbao) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BilbaoLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBilbao
Date
Competition
Chemnitz
#2
L
73-98
73
98
-25
66avg 76
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Breogan
#16
W
80-68
80
68
+12
78avg 76
A30/03
ACB
Chemnitz
#2
W
82-73
82
73
+9
75avg 76
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#7
W
81-71
81
71
+10
79avg 76
H06/04
ACB
Tenerife
#5
L
84-101
84
101
-17
83avg 76
A13/04
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#15
L
72-75
72
75
-3
63avg 76
H21/04
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
68-81
68
81
-13
64avg 76
A27/04
ACB
Palencia
#18
L
80-97
80
97
-17
67avg 76
H04/05
ACB
Manresa
#9
L
81-90
81
90
-9
70avg 76
A09/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
68-72
68
72
-4
45avg 76
H12/05
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-16
17-25
12-30
15-27
16-9
21-23
19-16
24-20
18-21
21-15
18-23
25-14
19-21
17-13
24-13
21-24
21-20
30-27
15-25
18-29
18-19
22-19
19-22
13-15
15-14
12-22
21-23
20-22
17-24
20-27
21-22
22-24
17-24
20-26
21-13
23-27
19-24
18-14
10-18
21-16
159.5Avg total
76.9Scored
82.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.982.6159.5-5.730%
Last 5 (5)73.883.0156.8-9.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)79.686.8166.4-7.230%
vs Similar (13)78.275.8154.1+2.454%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)83.077.1160.1+5.957%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -2.5-2.5Q4Q4: -6.4-6.4Q4: -1.6-1.6
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -2.5-2.5Q4Q4: -6.4-6.4Q4: -1.6-1.6
NeptunasBilbao
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#5
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H13/04
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H17/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H22/04
LKL
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#11
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H27/04
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
46-29
46
29
+17
H01/05
LKL
Siauliai
#10
W
52-43
52
43
+9
A05/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
42-45
42
45
-3
A13/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
W
53-46
53
46
+7
H15/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#3
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A18/05
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A21/09
LKL
83.7Avg total
43.2Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.740.181.8+1.653%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.941.283.1+0.753%-
Last 30 away (15)41.539.080.5+2.553%-
Last 10 (10)43.240.583.7+2.770%-
Last 5 (5)42.841.484.2+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)41.539.681.1+1.846%-
vs Similar (5)40.638.078.6+2.660%-
vs Weaker (12)42.441.583.9+0.958%-
This opponent (Bilbao) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BilbaoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chemnitz
#2
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Breogan
#16
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A30/03
ACB
Chemnitz
#2
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A03/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Gran Canaria
#7
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H06/04
ACB
Tenerife
#5
W
51-47
51
47
+4
A13/04
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#15
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H21/04
ACB
Basquet Girona
#14
L
27-36
27
36
-9
A27/04
ACB
Palencia
#18
L
37-51
37
51
-14
H04/05
ACB
Manresa
#9
L
37-50
37
50
-13
A09/05
ACB
Barcelona
#3
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H12/05
ACB
79.0Avg total
38.7Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.140.079.2-0.957%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.337.979.2+3.471%-
Last 30 away (16)37.241.979.1-4.644%-
Last 10 (10)38.740.379.0-1.660%-
Last 5 (5)35.642.678.2-7.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)40.941.182.0-0.270%-
vs Similar (13)39.038.577.5+0.562%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)36.941.478.3-4.629%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 88.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.621.2
56.4%
52.6%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.49.9
33.7%
34.0%29.7
🏀 Free throws21.516.1
74.9%
72.6%16.1
They take 67.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bilbaotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bilbao: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.618.7
54.0%
52.6%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.47.0
28.7%
34.0%21.0
🏀 Free throws21.717.7
81.6%
72.6%17.7
They take 59.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Sep 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
WLWLLLLLWW
Bilbao
LLLLLLWWWL
#42
League position
#2
-2.4
Net rating
-8.0
111.2
Offensive rating
102.8
113.6
Defensive rating
110.8
53.8%
Effective FG%
49.5%
52.8%
Opp. effective FG%
49.6%
16.8%
Turnover %
20.6%
27.2%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.37
33.7%
3-point %
28.7%
71.4%
Assist %
57.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence111.2 · 102.8Defence113.6 · 110.8Shooting53.8% · 49.5%3-point %33.7% · 28.7%Ball care16.8% · 20.6%Off. rebounds27.2% · 29.6%Free throws0.32 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Neptunas   ■ Bilbao
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Neptunas wins
0
Bilbao wins
No previous meetings.
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/09/24ARytas90-84
18/05/24ABC Wolves80-91
15/05/24HBC Wolves95-76
13/05/24ABC Wolves84-91
05/05/24ASiauliai98-104
01/05/24HBC Wolves85-86
27/04/24HPieno Zvaigzdes77-88
22/04/24HNevezis79-92
17/04/24HZalgiris Kaunas114-112 OT
13/04/24HLietkabelis88-84
Bilbaolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/05/24HBarcelona68-72
09/05/24AManresa81-90
04/05/24HPalencia80-97
27/04/24ABasquet Girona68-81
21/04/24HObradoiro CAB72-75
13/04/24ATenerife84-101
06/04/24HGran Canaria81-71
03/04/24AChemnitz82-73
30/03/24ABreogan80-68
27/03/24HChemnitz73-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
FIBA Europe Cup 2024
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Bilbao
FIBA Europe Cup 2024
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

No league table for this competition yet.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas1912152066
Bilbao2116162174
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