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New Zealand Breakers vs Melbourne United Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 30 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 06:30
Final 97-95
28-21 21-27 22-25 26-22
Position#7
Record10-17
FormLWWLL
Points / game90.5
Allowed / game92.1
vs
Position#4
Record18-10
FormLLWWW
Points / game92.7
Allowed / game87.3
AustraliaNBLRound 19· Spark Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · New Zealand Breakers v Melbourne United
29 Jan 2027
NEW v MELB
upcoming
04 Dec 2026
NEW v MELB
upcoming
30 Jan 2026
NEW 97
MELB95
13 Jan 2025
NEW 89
MELB91
05 Dec 2024
NEW 70
MELB97
12 Jan 2024
NEW 81
MELB82
28 Jan 2023
NEW 80
MELB74
12 Jan 2023
NEW 65
MELB77
14 Jan 2022
NEW 78
MELB89
25 Mar 2021
NEW 79
MELB82
05 Mar 2021
NEW 84
MELB87
19 Jan 2020
NEW 90
MELB68
07 Nov 2019
NEW 101
MELB104
01 Feb 2019
NEW 87
MELB107
16 Nov 2018
NEW 101
MELB108
05 Mar 2018
NEW 86
MELB88
11 Feb 2018
NEW 82
MELB100
18 Jan 2018
NEW 98
MELB81
10 Feb 2017
NEW 88
MELB70
07 Oct 2016
NEW 76
MELB71
20 Feb 2016
NEW 91
MELB78
12 Feb 2016
NEW 100
MELB63
22 Nov 2015
NEW 80
MELB69
18 Jan 2015
NEW 88
MELB75
21 Nov 2014
NEW 80
MELB72
07 Mar 2014
NEW 84
MELB97
28 Nov 2013
NEW 84
MELB74
14 Mar 2013
NEW 114
MELB84
30 Nov 2012
NEW 94
MELB64
19 Jan 2012
NEW 91
MELB77
02 Dec 2011
NEW 108
MELB98
11 Feb 2011
NEW 101
MELB91
28 Oct 2010
NEW 84
MELB79
14 Jan 2010
NEW 89
MELB94
08 Oct 2009
NEW 79
MELB74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

New Zealand Breakers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

New Zealand BreakersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreakers
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
L
80-92
80
92
-12
68avg 82
A13/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
95-99
95
99
-4
84avg 82
A19/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
85-99
85
99
-14
67avg 82
A22/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
81-80 OT
81
80
+1
66avg 82
A26/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
91-99
91
99
-8
76avg 82
H04/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
62-103
62
103
-41
46avg 82
H09/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
101-96
101
96
+5
90avg 82
A11/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
104-86
104
86
+18
no box
A17/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
116-123
116
123
-7
107avg 82
A21/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
110-112 OT
110
112
-2
106avg 82
H23/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-26
21-18
21-27
18-21
23-19
20-29
29-21
23-30
20-26
21-30
22-23
22-20
25-18
12-18
14-19
20-16
23-28
22-20
29-32
17-19
17-23
4-27
19-25
22-28
28-25
21-18
22-23
30-30
26-21
29-30
25-17
24-18
28-38
26-36
31-26
31-23
22-23
22-25
27-22
22-23
191.4Avg total
92.5Scored
98.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)90.592.1182.6-1.637%
Season at home (12)89.390.8180.2-1.533%
Season away (15)91.493.1184.5-1.740%
Last 10 (10)92.598.9191.4-6.430%
Last 5 (5)98.6104.0202.6-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)82.897.0179.8-14.28%
vs Similar (10)94.885.6180.4+9.270%
vs Weaker (7)96.793.1189.9+3.643%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
86-92 OT
86
92
-6
83avg 85
H14/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
97-75
97
75
+22
89avg 85
H18/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
73-92
73
92
-19
62avg 85
H23/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
92-87
92
87
+5
89avg 85
A27/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
75-84
75
84
-9
63avg 85
A03/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
92-93
92
93
-1
75avg 85
H07/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
94-97
94
97
-3
86avg 85
A11/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
79-77
79
77
+2
no box
H17/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
98-66
98
66
+32
98avg 85
H21/01
NBL
Perth
#5
W
74-73
74
73
+1
69avg 85
A25/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-24
25-21
20-24
14-15
24-20
23-21
27-26
23-8
19-22
20-20
9-23
25-27
28-26
31-19
21-26
12-16
16-19
19-25
15-19
25-21
22-29
23-14
30-33
17-17
23-26
25-30
25-23
21-18
23-21
20-21
18-17
18-18
29-19
28-17
24-14
17-16
12-24
26-16
12-12
24-21
169.6Avg total
86.0Scored
83.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)92.787.3180.0+5.464%
Season at home (14)93.683.1176.7+10.671%
Season away (14)91.791.6183.3+0.157%
Last 10 (10)86.083.6169.6+2.450%
Last 5 (5)87.481.2168.6+6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)92.395.2187.5-2.817%
vs Similar (8)90.490.6181.0-0.262%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)93.383.9177.2+9.475%
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.9+1.9
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -0.9-0.9Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: +3.6+3.6Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +1.9+1.9
New Zealand BreakersMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#2
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A13/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A19/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
41-56
41
56
-15
A22/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A26/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H04/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
21-50
21
50
-29
H09/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
49-43
49
43
+6
A11/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
55-51
55
51
+4
A17/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
54-74
54
74
-20
A21/01
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H23/01
NBL
92.8Avg total
43.0Scored
49.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.945.890.7-0.950%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.844.189.9+1.657%-
Last 30 away (16)44.147.291.3-3.144%-
Last 10 (10)43.049.892.8-6.830%-
Last 5 (5)44.653.297.8-8.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)40.247.888.0-7.723%-
vs Similar (10)47.043.190.1+3.980%-
vs Weaker (7)50.745.796.4+5.057%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H18/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H23/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
59-45
59
45
+14
A27/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A03/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H07/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
48-56
48
56
-8
A11/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H17/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H21/01
NBL
Perth
#5
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A25/01
NBL
89.5Avg total
46.1Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.544.692.1+2.963%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.539.787.1+7.887%-
Last 30 away (15)47.549.597.1-2.040%-
Last 10 (10)46.143.489.5+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)46.243.489.6+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)46.749.295.8-2.533%-
vs Similar (8)45.448.894.1-3.450%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)48.940.889.7+8.181%-
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 90.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.526.3
54.2%
54.6%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.37.5
28.5%
33.3%22.5
🏀 Free throws22.115.6
70.6%
74.8%15.6
They take 74.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 88.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.722.4
51.3%
54.6%44.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.38.6
30.4%
33.3%25.8
🏀 Free throws22.117.4
78.7%
74.8%17.4
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
New Zealand Breakers
LLWWLLWLLL
Melbourne United
WWWLLLWLWL
#7
League position
#4
-9.3
Net rating
+2.1
105.0
Offensive rating
104.5
114.3
Defensive rating
102.4
50.2%
Effective FG%
49.0%
58.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.5%
12.7%
Turnover %
14.6%
33.0%
Off. rebound %
30.7%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.31
28.5%
3-point %
30.4%
52.1%
Assist %
59.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.0 · 104.5Defence114.3 · 102.4Shooting50.2% · 49.0%3-point %28.5% · 30.4%Ball care12.7% · 14.6%Off. rebounds33.0% · 30.7%Free throws0.30 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ New Zealand Breakers   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
23/01/26HAdelaide110-112 OT
21/01/26ASouth East Melbourne116-123
17/01/26ACairns Taipans104-86
11/01/26AIllawarra Hawks101-96
09/01/26HSydney62-103
04/01/26HPerth91-99
26/12/25ATasmania JackJumpers81-80 OT
22/12/25ABrisbane Bullets85-99
19/12/25ACairns Taipans95-99
13/12/25ASouth East Melbourne80-92
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/26APerth74-73
21/01/26HBrisbane Bullets98-66
17/01/26HTasmania JackJumpers79-77
11/01/26ASydney94-97
07/01/26HCairns Taipans92-93
03/01/26ATasmania JackJumpers75-84
27/12/25ABrisbane Bullets92-87
23/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers73-92
18/12/25HIllawarra Hawks97-75
14/12/25HSydney86-92 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

New Zealand Breakers
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL37%
HomeWWLLL33%
AwayLWWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271215
Win %37%33%40%
Points / game90.589.391.4
Allowed / game92.190.893.1
Point differential-1.6-1.5-1.7
Avg total182.6180.2184.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)25% (4)67% (3)
Overtime %7%8%7%
Melbourne United
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW64%
HomeWLLWW71%
AwayLWLLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281414
Win %64%71%57%
Points / game92.793.691.7
Allowed / game87.383.191.6
Point differential+5.4+10.6+0.1
Avg total180.0176.7183.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%50%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)50% (4)80% (5)
Overtime %7%7%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2821775%93.387.2+6.1
2 Sydney2819968%97.087.3+9.8
3 South East Melbourne2819968%100.592.4+8.1
4 Melbourne United28181064%92.787.3+5.4
5 Perth28171161%90.385.9+4.4
6 Tasmania JackJumpers28121643%85.885.9-0.2
7 New Zealand Breakers27101737%90.592.1-1.6
8 Illawarra Hawks27101737%92.096.8-4.8
9 Cairns Taipans2772026%82.797.1-14.4
10 Brisbane Bullets2962321%83.396.2-12.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
New Zealand Breakers2821222697
Melbourne United2127252295
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