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New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 23 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 06:30
Final 110-112 (OT)
22-23 22-25 27-22 22-23 17-19
Position#7
Record10-16
FormLLWWL
Points / game89.7
Allowed / game91.3
vs
Position#3
Record19-6
FormWWWLL
Points / game91.7
Allowed / game86.1
AustraliaNBLRound 18· Spark Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · New Zealand Breakers v Adelaide
30 Oct 2026
NEW 101
ADEL108
23 Jan 2026
NEW 110
ADEL112
06 Nov 2025
NEW 79
ADEL83
02 Nov 2024
NEW 109
ADEL82
30 Nov 2023
NEW 96
ADEL83
26 Oct 2023
NEW 85
ADEL97
20 Nov 2022
NEW 89
ADEL83
24 Apr 2022
NEW 60
ADEL93
12 Mar 2022
NEW 84
ADEL75
25 May 2021
NEW 94
ADEL76
26 Apr 2021
NEW 93
ADEL77
31 Jan 2020
NEW 113
ADEL89
15 Dec 2019
NEW 96
ADEL99
07 Feb 2019
NEW 107
ADEL114
28 Oct 2018
NEW 114
ADEL94
15 Dec 2017
NEW 75
ADEL90
02 Nov 2017
NEW 92
ADEL88
08 Jan 2017
NEW 95
ADEL113
29 Oct 2016
NEW 119
ADEL93
08 Jan 2016
NEW 81
ADEL87
05 Nov 2015
NEW 98
ADEL88
26 Feb 2015
NEW 111
ADEL82
12 Feb 2015
NEW 88
ADEL93
17 Oct 2014
NEW 101
ADEL80
15 Nov 2013
NEW 94
ADEL95
31 Oct 2013
NEW 93
ADEL96
28 Feb 2013
NEW 104
ADEL79
12 Oct 2012
NEW 73
ADEL59
13 Jan 2012
NEW 80
ADEL63
03 Nov 2011
NEW 99
ADEL90
30 Mar 2011
NEW 100
ADEL71
20 Jan 2011
NEW 91
ADEL77
21 Jan 2010
NEW 103
ADEL89
29 Oct 2009
NEW 99
ADEL91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

New Zealand Breakers winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

New Zealand BreakersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreakers
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
99-86
99
86
+13
93avg 80
H06/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
80-92
80
92
-12
68avg 80
A13/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
95-99
95
99
-4
84avg 80
A19/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
85-99
85
99
-14
67avg 80
A22/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
81-80 OT
81
80
+1
66avg 80
A26/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
91-99
91
99
-8
76avg 80
H04/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
62-103
62
103
-41
46avg 80
H09/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
101-96
101
96
+5
90avg 80
A11/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
104-86
104
86
+18
no box
A17/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
116-123
116
123
-7
107avg 80
A21/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-14
24-27
28-29
19-16
20-26
21-18
21-27
18-21
23-19
20-29
29-21
23-30
20-26
21-30
22-23
22-20
25-18
12-18
14-19
20-16
23-28
22-20
29-32
17-19
17-23
4-27
19-25
22-28
28-25
21-18
22-23
30-30
26-21
29-30
25-17
24-18
28-38
26-36
31-26
31-23
187.7Avg total
91.4Scored
96.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)89.791.3181.1-1.638%
Season at home (11)87.588.9176.4-1.536%
Season away (15)91.493.1184.5-1.740%
Last 10 (10)91.496.3187.7-4.940%
Last 5 (5)94.8101.4196.2-6.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)82.897.0179.8-14.28%
vs Similar ◀ (10)92.583.7176.2+8.870%
vs Weaker (7)96.793.1189.9+3.643%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
W
95-94
95
94
+1
94avg 86
A07/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
114-105 OT
114
105
+9
110avg 86
H12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
93-97 OT
93
97
-4
86avg 86
A17/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
84-78
84
78
+6
81avg 86
A20/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
93-73
93
73
+20
87avg 86
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
95-84
95
84
+11
92avg 86
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
85-79
85
79
+6
81avg 86
H02/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
97-86
97
86
+11
97avg 86
A04/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
72-80
72
80
-8
61avg 86
H09/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
89-108
89
108
-19
no box
H18/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-25
18-25
20-28
35-16
27-22
32-26
22-19
14-28
29-23
27-20
9-23
20-19
21-21
20-18
19-20
24-19
23-21
27-21
23-19
20-12
20-29
26-20
29-9
20-26
19-26
16-15
21-18
29-20
15-20
23-25
30-20
29-21
16-13
11-27
24-20
21-20
23-31
20-22
26-28
20-27
180.1Avg total
91.7Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)91.786.1177.8+5.676%
Season at home (15)91.387.0178.3+4.373%
Season away (10)92.484.7177.1+7.780%
Last 10 (10)91.788.4180.1+3.370%
Last 5 (5)87.687.4175.0+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)90.192.9183.0-2.840%
vs Similar ◀ (10)91.088.4179.4+2.660%
vs Weaker (10)94.482.1176.5+12.3100%
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +2.4+2.4
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: +0.1+0.1Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +2.4+2.4
New Zealand BreakersAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H06/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A13/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A19/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
41-56
41
56
-15
A22/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A26/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H04/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
21-50
21
50
-29
H09/01
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
49-43
49
43
+6
A11/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
55-51
55
51
+4
A17/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
54-74
54
74
-20
A21/01
NBL
92.9Avg total
43.8Scored
49.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.845.790.5-0.950%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.544.089.5+1.557%-
Last 30 away (16)44.147.291.3-3.144%-
Last 10 (10)43.849.192.9-5.340%-
Last 5 (5)44.853.298.0-8.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)40.247.888.0-7.723%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)46.642.989.5+3.780%-
vs Weaker (7)50.745.796.4+5.057%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A07/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A17/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A20/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
35-41
35
41
-6
H02/01
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A04/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
27-40
27
40
-13
H09/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
43-53
43
53
-10
H18/01
NBL
88.5Avg total
43.5Scored
45.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.643.388.8+2.357%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.443.989.2+1.556%-
Last 30 away (14)45.842.688.4+3.257%-
Last 10 (10)43.545.088.5-1.540%-
Last 5 (5)37.845.683.4-7.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)45.743.889.5+1.950%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)44.544.088.5+0.550%-
vs Weaker (10)46.542.088.5+4.570%-
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 89.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.0 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.125.5
55.3%
54.6%51.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.47.7
28.1%
33.3%23.1
🏀 Free throws21.415.1
70.6%
74.8%15.1
They take 73.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.923.2
51.7%
54.6%46.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.89.3
37.5%
33.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws22.017.4
79.1%
74.8%17.4
They take 69.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
New Zealand Breakers
LWWLLWLLLW
Adelaide
LLWWWWWLWW
#7
League position
#3
-8.4
Net rating
+10.7
106.1
Offensive rating
116.4
114.5
Defensive rating
105.7
50.4%
Effective FG%
53.3%
57.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.0%
13.2%
Turnover %
12.2%
32.0%
Off. rebound %
29.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.32
28.1%
3-point %
37.5%
52.4%
Assist %
67.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence106.1 · 116.4Defence114.5 · 105.7Shooting50.4% · 53.3%3-point %28.1% · 37.5%Ball care13.2% · 12.2%Off. rebounds32.0% · 29.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ New Zealand Breakers   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
21/01/26ASouth East Melbourne116-123
17/01/26ACairns Taipans104-86
11/01/26AIllawarra Hawks101-96
09/01/26HSydney62-103
04/01/26HPerth91-99
26/12/25ATasmania JackJumpers81-80 OT
22/12/25ABrisbane Bullets85-99
19/12/25ACairns Taipans95-99
13/12/25ASouth East Melbourne80-92
06/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers99-86
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/01/26HSouth East Melbourne89-108
09/01/26HTasmania JackJumpers72-80
04/01/26ABrisbane Bullets97-86
02/01/26HSydney85-79
28/12/25HPerth95-84
24/12/25HCairns Taipans93-73
20/12/25AIllawarra Hawks84-78
17/12/25ASydney93-97 OT
12/12/25HMelbourne United114-105 OT
07/12/25APerth95-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

New Zealand Breakers
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL38%
HomeLWWLL36%
AwayLWWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261115
Win %38%36%40%
Points / game89.787.591.4
Allowed / game91.388.993.1
Point differential-1.6-1.5-1.7
Avg total181.1176.4184.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%27%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)33% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %4%0%7%
Adelaide
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL76%
HomeWWWLL73%
AwayWWLWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251510
Win %76%73%80%
Points / game91.791.392.4
Allowed / game86.187.084.7
Point differential+5.6+4.3+7.7
Avg total177.8178.3177.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%33%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (2)60% (5)
Overtime %12%13%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2519676%91.786.1+5.6
2 South East Melbourne2618869%100.192.2+8.0
3 Sydney2617965%95.786.1+9.6
4 Melbourne United27171063%93.487.9+5.5
5 Perth26161062%90.586.1+4.4
6 Tasmania JackJumpers27121544%85.685.4+0.2
7 New Zealand Breakers26101638%89.791.3-1.6
8 Illawarra Hawks2481633%90.296.9-6.7
9 Cairns Taipans2671927%82.396.3-13.9
10 Brisbane Bullets2762122%84.095.2-11.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
New Zealand Breakers2222272217110
Adelaide2325222319112
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