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Sydney vs Melbourne United Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 05:30
Final 97-94
26-23 30-25 23-25 18-21
Position#1
Record14-9
FormWWLLW
Points / game95.3
Allowed / game85.7
Sydney 🏆
Australia
vs
Position#4
Record15-9
FormWLWLL
Points / game93.8
Allowed / game88.8
AustraliaNBLRound 16· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Sydney v Melbourne United
10 Jan 2027
SYDN v MELB
upcoming
29 Dec 2026
SYDN v MELB
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
SYDN97
MELB94
08 Oct 2025
SYDN93
MELB107
09 Jan 2025
SYDN88
MELB90
28 Jan 2024
SYDN98
MELB86
04 Jan 2024
SYDN85
MELB101
25 Dec 2022
SYDN101
MELB80
26 Dec 2021
SYDN68
MELB82
05 Dec 2021
SYDN79
MELB74
29 May 2021
SYDN100
MELB98
19 Mar 2021
SYDN103
MELB75
05 Mar 2020
SYDN89
MELB87
29 Feb 2020
SYDN86
MELB80
26 Jan 2020
SYDN106
MELB88
01 Dec 2019
SYDN111
MELB101
03 Mar 2019
SYDN76
MELB90
08 Feb 2019
SYDN97
MELB85
23 Dec 2018
SYDN70
MELB75
28 Jan 2018
SYDN76
MELB93
30 Dec 2017
SYDN79
MELB103
04 Feb 2017
SYDN76
MELB89
11 Dec 2016
SYDN81
MELB88
30 Dec 2015
SYDN90
MELB100
05 Nov 2015
SYDN94
MELB105
20 Feb 2015
SYDN88
MELB91
02 Jan 2015
SYDN68
MELB82
19 Jan 2014
SYDN97
MELB84
13 Oct 2013
SYDN73
MELB69
18 Jan 2013
SYDN74
MELB77
12 Oct 2012
SYDN85
MELB82
02 Mar 2012
SYDN61
MELB66
04 Nov 2011
SYDN76
MELB94
06 Mar 2011
SYDN95
MELB86
23 Dec 2010
SYDN73
MELB82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
90-95
90
95
-5
79avg 86
A03/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
108-79
108
79
+29
102avg 86
A12/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
92-86 OT
92
86
+6
74avg 86
A14/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
97-93 OT
97
93
+4
84avg 86
H17/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
119-77
119
77
+42
119avg 86
H21/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
108-84
108
84
+24
110avg 86
H25/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
95-70
95
70
+25
93avg 86
H30/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
79-85
79
85
-6
69avg 86
A02/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
117-124
117
124
-7
110avg 86
H05/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
103-62
103
62
+41
104avg 86
A09/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-26
20-23
27-19
16-27
26-25
18-17
32-21
32-16
24-25
21-25
24-20
15-14
23-29
20-27
23-9
19-20
28-23
29-18
34-19
28-17
34-19
28-22
21-17
25-26
24-15
27-15
26-19
18-21
26-19
15-16
18-21
20-29
35-31
25-28
32-36
25-29
23-17
27-4
25-19
28-22
186.3Avg total
100.8Scored
85.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)95.385.7181.0+9.661%
Season at home (11)96.585.5182.1+11.064%
Season away (12)94.285.8180.0+8.358%
Last 10 (10)100.885.5186.3+15.370%
Last 5 (5)100.485.0185.4+15.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)75.095.0170.0-20.00%
vs Similar (2)100.098.0198.0+2.050%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)94.686.5181.1+8.159%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
W
98-87
98
87
+11
84avg 86
H23/11
NBL
Perth
#5
L
84-96
84
96
-12
70avg 86
A04/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
86-111
86
111
-25
75avg 86
A07/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
105-114 OT
105
114
-9
87avg 86
A12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
86-92 OT
86
92
-6
83avg 86
H14/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
97-75
97
75
+22
89avg 86
H18/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
73-92
73
92
-19
62avg 86
H23/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
92-87
92
87
+5
89avg 86
A27/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
75-84
75
84
-9
63avg 86
A03/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
92-93
92
93
-1
75avg 86
H07/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-22
27-25
23-26
24-14
20-33
22-23
15-20
27-20
22-32
23-28
21-23
20-28
22-27
26-32
19-22
28-14
25-24
25-21
20-24
14-15
24-20
23-21
27-26
23-8
19-22
20-20
9-23
25-27
28-26
31-19
21-26
12-16
16-19
19-25
15-19
25-21
22-29
23-14
30-33
17-17
181.9Avg total
88.8Scored
93.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)93.888.8182.6+4.962%
Season at home (12)94.585.0179.5+9.567%
Season away (12)93.092.7185.7+0.358%
Last 10 (10)88.893.1181.9-4.330%
Last 5 (5)85.886.2172.0-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)92.492.6185.0-0.238%
vs Similar (8)95.295.5190.8-0.262%
vs Weaker (14)94.085.7179.7+8.371%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +6.2+6.2Q3: -4.2-4.2Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +3.5+3.5
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +6.2+6.2Q3: -4.2-4.2Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: +3.5+3.5
SydneyMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
47-49
47
49
-2
A03/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A12/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A14/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
43-56
43
56
-13
H17/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H21/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
62-41
62
41
+21
H25/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
51-30
51
30
+21
H30/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A02/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
60-59
60
59
+1
H05/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
50-21
50
21
+29
A09/01
NBL
92.4Avg total
50.0Scored
42.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.044.492.4+3.670%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.444.993.2+3.575%-
Last 30 away (14)47.643.991.5+3.664%-
Last 10 (10)50.042.492.4+7.670%-
Last 5 (5)52.837.290.0+15.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)39.050.089.0-11.00%-
vs Similar (2)55.050.5105.5+4.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)47.843.891.6+4.074%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H23/11
NBL
Perth
#5
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A04/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
45-60
45
60
-15
A07/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
48-59
48
59
-11
A12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H18/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H23/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
59-45
59
45
+14
A27/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
35-44
35
44
-9
A03/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
45-43
45
43
+2
H07/01
NBL
94.3Avg total
46.1Scored
48.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.745.793.4+1.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.942.089.9+5.973%-
Last 30 away (15)47.449.596.9-2.140%-
Last 10 (10)46.148.294.3-2.150%-
Last 5 (5)45.043.088.0+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)45.648.193.8-2.525%-
vs Similar (8)47.951.599.4-3.650%-
vs Weaker (14)48.741.189.8+7.679%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 99.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.125.6
58.0%
54.6%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.711.2
36.5%
33.3%33.6
🏀 Free throws20.715.1
72.9%
74.8%15.1
They take 74.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 87.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.922.9
51.0%
54.6%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.78.3
28.9%
33.3%24.9
🏀 Free throws21.417.1
79.9%
74.8%17.1
They take 73.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WLLWWWWWWL
Melbourne United
LLWLWLLLLW
#1
League position
#4
+18.4
Net rating
-5.3
121.1
Offensive rating
107.4
102.7
Defensive rating
112.7
56.7%
Effective FG%
48.0%
48.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.0%
11.4%
Turnover %
15.5%
27.8%
Off. rebound %
32.0%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.29
36.5%
3-point %
28.9%
59.5%
Assist %
56.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence121.1 · 107.4Defence102.7 · 112.7Shooting56.7% · 48.0%3-point %36.5% · 28.9%Ball care11.4% · 15.5%Off. rebounds27.8% · 32.0%Free throws0.28 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Sydney   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Sydney wins
6
Melbourne United wins
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/26ANew Zealand Breakers103-62
05/01/26HSouth East Melbourne117-124
02/01/26AAdelaide79-85
30/12/25HBrisbane Bullets95-70
25/12/25HIllawarra Hawks108-84
21/12/25HCairns Taipans119-77
17/12/25HAdelaide97-93 OT
14/12/25AMelbourne United92-86 OT
12/12/25APerth108-79
03/12/25ANew Zealand Breakers90-95
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/01/26HCairns Taipans92-93
03/01/26ATasmania JackJumpers75-84
27/12/25ABrisbane Bullets92-87
23/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers73-92
18/12/25HIllawarra Hawks97-75
14/12/25HSydney86-92 OT
12/12/25AAdelaide105-114 OT
07/12/25ASouth East Melbourne86-111
04/12/25APerth84-96
23/11/25HPerth98-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW61%
HomeWWWWL64%
AwayLWWLW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231112
Win %61%64%58%
Points / game95.396.594.2
Allowed / game85.785.585.8
Point differential+9.6+11.0+8.3
Avg total181.0182.1180.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%45%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %9%9%8%
Melbourne United
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL62%
HomeWLWLL67%
AwayLLLWL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %62%67%58%
Points / game93.894.593.0
Allowed / game88.885.092.7
Point differential+4.9+9.5+0.3
Avg total182.6179.5185.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)33% (3)100% (3)
Overtime %8%8%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2419579%91.885.2+6.7
2 South East Melbourne2416867%98.891.3+7.5
3 Melbourne United2415962%93.888.8+4.9
4 Sydney2314961%95.385.7+9.6
5 Perth24141058%89.886.8+3.0
6 Tasmania JackJumpers25121348%85.684.8+0.7
7 New Zealand Breakers2491538%88.090.2-2.2
8 Illawarra Hawks2381535%90.397.1-6.7
9 Cairns Taipans2361726%82.596.1-13.6
10 Brisbane Bullets2461825%84.995.4-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney2630231897
Melbourne United2325252194
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