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Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 18 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 97-75
24-20 23-21 27-26 23-8
Position#4
Record13-6
FormWLLLL
Points / game95.8
Allowed / game89.5
vs
Position#8
Record6-10
FormLLWLW
Points / game90.2
Allowed / game96.9
AustraliaNBLRound 13· John Cain Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks
13 Feb 2027
MELB v ILLA
upcoming
18 Oct 2026
MELB89
ILLA91
15 Feb 2026
MELB91
ILLA100
18 Dec 2025
MELB97
ILLA75
19 Mar 2025
MELB71
ILLA80
12 Mar 2025
MELB100
ILLA102
13 Dec 2024
MELB93
ILLA106
13 Mar 2024
MELB100
ILLA94
07 Mar 2024
MELB115
ILLA106
18 Feb 2024
MELB92
ILLA87
29 Oct 2023
MELB96
ILLA84
18 Dec 2022
MELB88
ILLA77
02 Apr 2022
MELB90
ILLA96
27 Mar 2022
MELB77
ILLA92
18 Apr 2021
MELB87
ILLA76
21 Mar 2021
MELB75
ILLA65
08 Feb 2020
MELB95
ILLA72
23 Jan 2019
MELB113
ILLA89
29 Oct 2018
MELB99
ILLA93
18 Feb 2018
MELB84
ILLA94
04 Dec 2017
MELB91
ILLA73
06 Feb 2017
MELB78
ILLA72
16 Oct 2016
MELB95
ILLA83
07 Jan 2016
MELB97
ILLA96
11 Oct 2015
MELB93
ILLA81
07 Feb 2015
MELB76
ILLA82
02 Nov 2014
MELB88
ILLA75
27 Dec 2013
MELB74
ILLA67
10 Nov 2013
MELB81
ILLA76
02 Mar 2013
MELB82
ILLA88
25 Nov 2012
MELB66
ILLA74
18 Mar 2012
MELB61
ILLA71
06 Feb 2011
MELB93
ILLA72
07 Nov 2010
MELB82
ILLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
92-95
92
95
-3
85avg 87
H03/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
93-107
93
107
-14
80avg 87
A05/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
92-81
92
81
+11
88avg 87
A08/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
99-93
99
93
+6
90avg 87
H15/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
105-102
105
102
+3
89avg 87
A21/11
NBL
Perth
#5
W
98-87
98
87
+11
84avg 87
H23/11
NBL
Perth
#5
L
84-96
84
96
-12
70avg 87
A04/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
86-111
86
111
-25
75avg 87
A07/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
105-114 OT
105
114
-9
87avg 87
A12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
86-92 OT
86
92
-6
83avg 87
H14/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
25-24
19-23
23-18
22-32
21-25
25-22
25-28
27-28
20-17
21-12
24-24
24-24
23-14
25-16
27-39
38-33
20-19
28-31
19-19
24-22
27-25
23-26
24-14
20-33
22-23
15-20
27-20
22-32
23-28
21-23
20-28
22-27
26-32
19-22
28-14
25-24
25-21
20-24
14-15
191.8Avg total
94.0Scored
97.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)95.889.5185.4+6.368%
Season at home (9)96.984.4181.3+12.478%
Season away (10)94.994.1189.0+0.860%
Last 10 (10)94.097.8191.8-3.840%
Last 5 (5)91.8100.0191.8-8.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)92.492.6185.0-0.238%
vs Similar (11)96.395.1191.4+1.264%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)99.686.3185.9+13.491%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
60-102
60
102
-42
46avg 89
H31/10
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
88-90
88
90
-2
90avg 89
A02/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
107-93
107
93
+14
107avg 89
H05/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
107-90
107
90
+17
108avg 89
A07/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
71-98
71
98
-27
66avg 89
H16/11
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
85-97
85
97
-12
67avg 89
A19/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
102-105
102
105
-3
95avg 89
H21/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
113-109 OT
113
109
+4
118avg 89
H04/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
76-93
76
93
-17
68avg 89
H06/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
100-85
100
85
+15
99avg 89
H11/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-31
16-21
10-27
16-23
19-21
22-20
26-31
21-18
32-22
25-21
22-25
28-25
25-22
27-26
29-20
26-22
14-18
18-35
18-18
21-27
22-21
27-23
15-27
21-26
33-38
19-20
31-28
19-19
31-13
23-26
20-22
19-32
20-20
14-29
24-24
18-20
23-33
26-17
22-18
29-17
187.1Avg total
90.9Scored
96.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)90.296.9187.2-6.738%
Season at home (9)92.396.1188.4-3.844%
Season away (7)87.698.0185.6-10.429%
Last 10 (10)90.996.2187.1-5.340%
Last 5 (5)95.297.8193.0-2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)90.198.2188.3-8.133%
vs Similar (3)78.0103.3181.3-25.30%
vs Weaker (18)96.888.3185.2+8.567%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -1.1-1.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -0.2-0.2Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -1.1-1.1
Melbourne UnitedIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sydney
#1
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H03/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
L
43-57
43
57
-14
A05/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A08/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H15/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A21/11
NBL
Perth
#5
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H23/11
NBL
Perth
#5
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A04/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
45-60
45
60
-15
A07/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
48-59
48
59
-11
A12/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
50-45
50
45
+5
H14/12
NBL
99.4Avg total
48.1Scored
51.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.946.895.7+2.153%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.944.693.5+4.360%-
Last 30 away (15)48.948.997.8-0.147%-
Last 10 (10)48.151.399.4-3.250%-
Last 5 (5)47.253.4100.6-6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)45.648.193.8-2.525%-
vs Similar (11)48.550.699.1-2.245%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)51.741.993.6+9.882%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
34-52
34
52
-18
H31/10
NBL
Adelaide
#3
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A02/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H05/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
52-48
52
48
+4
A07/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H16/11
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A19/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
52-58
52
58
-6
H21/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
54-39
54
39
+15
H04/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
34-49
34
49
-15
H06/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H11/12
NBL
93.1Avg total
45.4Scored
47.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.545.693.0+1.953%-
Last 30 at home (16)49.146.695.7+2.456%-
Last 30 away (14)45.644.490.0+1.350%-
Last 10 (10)45.447.793.1-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)47.648.095.6-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)45.446.992.3-1.444%-
vs Similar (3)42.753.796.3-11.00%-
vs Weaker (18)49.343.692.8+5.767%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 95.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.926.0
53.2%
54.6%52.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.78.2
27.6%
33.3%24.6
🏀 Free throws24.518.8
76.7%
74.8%18.8
They take 78.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 91.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.8 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.427.4
53.3%
54.6%54.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.77.4
31.2%
33.3%22.2
🏀 Free throws18.914.9
78.8%
74.8%14.9
They take 75.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
LLLLWWWWLL
Illawarra Hawks
WLWLLLWWLL
#4
League position
#8
-3.9
Net rating
-6.3
110.1
Offensive rating
105.2
114.0
Defensive rating
111.5
48.7%
Effective FG%
51.3%
53.4%
Opp. effective FG%
49.6%
14.4%
Turnover %
17.6%
33.1%
Off. rebound %
31.2%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.25
27.6%
3-point %
31.2%
51.2%
Assist %
60.1%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence110.1 · 105.2Defence114.0 · 111.5Shooting48.7% · 51.3%3-point %27.6% · 31.2%Ball care14.4% · 17.6%Off. rebounds33.1% · 31.2%Free throws0.31 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
14/12/25HSydney86-92 OT
12/12/25AAdelaide105-114 OT
07/12/25ASouth East Melbourne86-111
04/12/25APerth84-96
23/11/25HPerth98-87
21/11/25AIllawarra Hawks105-102
15/11/25HBrisbane Bullets99-93
08/11/25ASouth East Melbourne92-81
05/11/25AIllawarra Hawks93-107
03/11/25HSydney92-95
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/12/25HBrisbane Bullets100-85
06/12/25HCairns Taipans76-93
04/12/25HSouth East Melbourne113-109 OT
21/11/25HMelbourne United102-105
19/11/25AAdelaide85-97
16/11/25HSydney71-98
07/11/25ACairns Taipans107-90
05/11/25HMelbourne United107-93
02/11/25AAdelaide88-90
31/10/25HNew Zealand Breakers60-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL68%
HomeWLWWL78%
AwayWWLLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %68%78%60%
Points / game95.896.994.9
Allowed / game89.584.494.1
Point differential+6.3+12.4+0.8
Avg total185.4181.3189.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%56%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)50% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %11%11%10%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW38%
HomeLLWLW44%
AwayLWLWL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %38%44%29%
Points / game90.292.387.6
Allowed / game96.996.198.0
Point differential-6.7-3.8-10.4
Avg total187.2188.4185.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %6%11%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide1814478%93.286.9+6.3
2 Melbourne United1913668%95.889.5+6.3
3 South East Melbourne1711665%96.989.2+7.7
4 Sydney1710759%92.486.4+6.0
5 Perth1810856%88.986.8+2.1
6 Tasmania JackJumpers1881044%85.686.1-0.5
7 New Zealand Breakers1871139%88.888.3+0.4
8 Illawarra Hawks1661038%90.296.9-6.7
9 Brisbane Bullets1851328%85.795.4-9.7
10 Cairns Taipans1741324%81.394.4-13.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne United2423272397
Illawarra Hawks202126875
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