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Paulistano vs Cerrado Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 02 Apr 2024
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 82-71
20-14 21-24 20-16 21-17
Position#7
Record19-13
FormLWLLW
Points / game75.4
Allowed / game71.2
vs
Position#17
Record8-23
FormLLLLL
Points / game74.8
Allowed / game76.7
BrazilNBB· Ginasio Antonio Prado Jr
Other2023-24
Meetings · Paulistano v Cerrado
02 Apr 2024
PAUL82
CERR71
13 Mar 2023
PAUL91
CERR77
01 Dec 2021
PAUL85
CERR84
20 Nov 2020
PAUL72
CERR61
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Paulistano winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cerrado winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PaulistanoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulistano
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#6
W
75-69
75
69
+6
68avg 68
A08/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
64-51
64
51
+13
54avg 68
A10/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
80-51
80
51
+29
78avg 68
H16/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
71-81
71
81
-10
69avg 68
H02/03
NBB
Pato
#12
L
73-83
73
83
-10
60avg 68
A09/03
NBB
Minas
#3
L
70-72
70
72
-2
57avg 68
A11/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
106-72
106
72
+34
109avg 68
H20/03
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
68-81
68
81
-13
61avg 68
A26/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
70-73
70
73
-3
64avg 68
A28/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
95-50
95
50
+45
90avg 68
H31/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-23
16-14
11-20
23-12
24-11
14-17
8-13
18-10
26-17
19-13
19-12
16-9
17-19
19-30
18-12
17-20
17-17
20-28
14-25
22-13
18-23
14-23
18-9
20-17
23-23
32-10
26-15
25-24
18-18
18-22
14-23
18-18
12-15
15-17
21-21
22-20
27-11
21-13
23-8
24-18
145.5Avg total
77.2Scored
68.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (32)75.471.2146.6+4.259%
Season at home (16)78.971.2150.1+7.762%
Season away (16)71.971.2143.1+0.856%
Last 10 (10)77.268.3145.5+8.950%
Last 5 (5)81.869.6151.4+12.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)71.482.8154.2-11.40%
vs Similar (9)70.369.4139.8+0.944%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)82.268.9151.1+13.387%
This opponent (Cerrado) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CerradoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCerrado
Date
Competition
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
56-73
56
73
-17
43avg 67
A24/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
103-75
103
75
+28
100avg 67
A05/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
86-72
86
72
+14
87avg 67
A07/02
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
83-86
83
86
-3
89avg 67
H15/02
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
95-73
95
73
+22
96avg 67
A01/03
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
79-82
79
82
-3
74avg 67
H08/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
81-84
81
84
-3
70avg 67
H10/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
69-71
69
71
-2
52avg 67
A20/03
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
65-70
65
70
-5
58avg 67
A22/03
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
69-86
69
86
-17
59avg 67
H26/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
4-19
27-15
12-19
13-20
25-17
22-13
27-21
29-24
16-18
25-16
15-20
30-18
19-25
24-23
22-22
18-16
22-15
28-19
25-21
20-18
23-19
11-20
20-23
25-20
28-24
23-12
12-24
18-24
21-18
20-18
11-20
17-15
16-16
19-20
21-16
9-18
10-30
15-18
22-17
22-21
155.8Avg total
78.6Scored
77.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)74.876.7151.6-1.926%
Season at home (15)74.975.0149.9-0.127%
Season away (16)74.878.4153.2-3.625%
Last 10 (10)78.677.2155.8+1.430%
Last 5 (5)72.678.6151.2-6.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)71.980.5152.4-8.67%
vs Similar (8)70.175.5145.6-5.425%
vs Weaker (8)86.472.4158.8+14.062%
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +4.4+4.4Q4: +0.7+0.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +4.0+4.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +4.4+4.4Q4: +0.7+0.7
PaulistanoCerrado
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PaulistanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Unifacisa
#6
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A08/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
38-28
38
28
+10
A10/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H16/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
36-49
36
49
-13
H02/03
NBB
Pato
#12
L
37-45
37
45
-8
A09/03
NBB
Minas
#3
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A11/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
55-33
55
33
+22
H20/03
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A26/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A28/03
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
48-24
48
24
+24
H31/03
NBB
75.9Avg total
39.5Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.035.073.0+3.057%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.434.574.9+5.957%-
Last 30 away (16)35.935.571.4+0.456%-
Last 10 (10)39.536.475.9+3.150%-
Last 5 (5)39.635.074.6+4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)34.243.477.6-9.20%-
vs Similar (9)33.934.668.4-0.744%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)41.332.974.3+8.480%-
This opponent (Cerrado) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
CerradoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
31-34
31
34
-3
A24/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
47-30
47
30
+17
A05/02
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A07/02
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H15/02
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
50-34
50
34
+16
A01/03
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H08/03
NBB
Vasco
#4
W
51-36
51
36
+15
H10/03
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A20/03
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A22/03
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
25-48
25
48
-23
H26/03
NBB
77.3Avg total
39.8Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.937.575.4+0.447%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.836.474.2+1.457%-
Last 30 away (16)38.138.476.5-0.438%-
Last 10 (10)39.837.577.3+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)37.239.076.2-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)36.440.476.8-4.121%-
vs Similar (8)34.937.071.9-2.150%-
vs Weaker (8)43.832.976.6+10.988%-
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Paulistanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paulistano: 76.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.018.1
50.3%
51.8%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.49.3
36.6%
33.9%27.9
🏀 Free throws17.112.1
70.8%
72.6%12.1
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Cerradotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cerrado: 77.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.418.7
51.4%
51.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.78.7
35.2%
33.9%26.1
🏀 Free throws19.914.3
71.9%
72.6%14.3
They take 61.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Apr 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Paulistano
WLLWLLLWWW
Cerrado
LLLLLWLWWL
#7
League position
#17
+11.1
Net rating
+1.7
106.1
Offensive rating
107.6
94.9
Defensive rating
105.9
52.2%
Effective FG%
52.0%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
17.5%
Turnover %
19.9%
28.4%
Off. rebound %
34.4%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.33
36.6%
3-point %
35.2%
63.9%
Assist %
53.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence106.1 · 107.6Defence94.9 · 105.9Shooting52.2% · 52.0%3-point %36.6% · 35.2%Ball care17.5% · 19.9%Off. rebounds28.4% · 34.4%Free throws0.28 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Paulistano   ■ Cerrado
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Paulistano wins
0
Cerrado wins
DateGameScore
18/12/23Cerrado v Paulistano64-68
13/03/23Paulistano v Cerrado91-77
13/12/22Cerrado v Paulistano80-93
02/04/22Cerrado v Paulistano76-80
01/12/21Paulistano v Cerrado85-84
11/04/21Cerrado v Paulistano67-75
20/11/20Paulistano v Cerrado72-61
Paulistanolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/03/24HBrasilia95-50
28/03/24AVasco70-73
26/03/24AFlamengo68-81
20/03/24HUniao Corinthians106-72
11/03/24AMinas70-72
09/03/24APato73-83
02/03/24HCorinthians Paulista71-81
16/02/24HPinheiros80-51
10/02/24ACearense64-51
08/02/24AUnifacisa75-69
Cerradolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/03/24HBauru69-86
22/03/24AMogi65-70
20/03/24ASao Jose69-71
10/03/24HVasco81-84
08/03/24HBotafogo79-82
01/03/24ABrasilia95-73
15/02/24HFlamengo83-86
07/02/24ACaxias do Sul86-72
05/02/24AUniao Corinthians103-75
24/01/24ACorinthians Paulista56-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Paulistano
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW59%
HomeLWLWW62%
AwayWLLLL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321616
Win %59%62%56%
Points / game75.478.971.9
Allowed / game71.271.271.2
Point differential+4.2+7.7+0.8
Avg total146.6150.1143.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%50%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (1)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Cerrado
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL26%
HomeLLLLL27%
AwayWWWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %26%27%25%
Points / game74.874.974.8
Allowed / game76.775.078.4
Point differential-1.9-0.1-3.6
Avg total151.6149.9153.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%13%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won9% (11)0% (5)17% (6)
Overtime %3%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca3328585%88.276.4+11.8
2 Flamengo3328585%85.173.9+11.1
3 Minas3325876%85.973.4+12.5
4 Vasco3223972%76.373.0+3.4
5 Bauru34231168%81.778.8+2.9
6 Unifacisa33201361%84.079.8+4.2
7 Paulistano32191359%75.471.2+4.2
8 Cearense32181456%79.677.1+2.4
9 Corinthians Paulista32171553%80.779.3+1.3
10 Sao Jose33171652%79.677.7+1.9
11 Sao Paulo32161650%78.479.4-1.0
12 Pato33151845%78.379.9-1.6
13 Pinheiros32131941%74.878.3-3.6
14 Uniao Corinthians33102330%75.184.0-8.9
15 Botafogo3492526%79.187.9-8.8
16 Cerrado3182326%74.876.7-1.9
17 Mogi3282425%74.080.1-6.1
18 Caxias do Sul3282425%72.080.3-8.2
19 Brasilia3242812%72.288.5-16.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Paulistano2021202182
Cerrado1424161771
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