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Pato vs Paulistano Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 09 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 83-73
17-17 28-20 25-14 13-22
Position#12
Record11-18
FormLLLLL
Points / game76.5
Allowed / game80.2
Pato 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#7
Record17-9
FormLWWWL
Points / game74.3
Allowed / game71.0
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi
Other2023-24
Meetings · Pato v Paulistano
21 Oct 2026
PATO74
PAUL80
06 Dec 2025
PATO67
PAUL59
17 Nov 2024
PATO66
PAUL65
09 Mar 2024
PATO83
PAUL73
18 Apr 2023
PATO82
PAUL70
17 Jan 2023
PATO75
PAUL87
30 Oct 2021
PATO55
PAUL68
02 Apr 2021
PATO49
PAUL87
17 Mar 2020
PATO v PAUL
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Paulistano winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Cerrado
#17
W
82-75
82
75
+7
77avg 67
A08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
97-91 OT
97
91
+6
no box
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
67-76
67
76
-9
56avg 67
H15/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
97-86
97
86
+11
92avg 67
H24/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
80-88
80
88
-8
71avg 67
H05/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
74-80
74
80
-6
57avg 67
H07/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
79-89
79
89
-10
65avg 67
A15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
65-97
65
97
-32
54avg 67
A17/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
69-90
69
90
-21
56avg 67
A02/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
79-85
79
85
-6
71avg 67
A04/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-15
13-21
26-16
21-23
21-17
20-20
19-26
21-18
15-21
16-23
24-18
12-14
24-19
27-30
26-23
20-14
20-28
14-25
18-16
28-19
13-15
20-21
15-24
26-20
15-27
18-20
23-18
23-24
21-23
20-29
11-22
13-23
18-15
13-28
22-20
16-27
26-17
17-23
19-25
17-20
164.6Avg total
78.9Scored
85.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)76.580.2156.7-3.738%
Season at home (13)79.476.9156.3+2.554%
Season away (16)74.282.8157.0-8.625%
Last 10 (10)78.985.7164.6-6.830%
Last 5 (5)73.288.2161.4-15.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)73.982.7156.6-8.818%
vs Similar (12)75.883.2158.9-7.425%
vs Weaker (7)82.172.7154.9+9.486%
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaulistanoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulistano
Date
Competition
Bauru
#5
L
55-66
55
66
-11
44avg 67
H08/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
76-98
76
98
-22
68avg 67
H10/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
85-68
85
68
+17
79avg 67
A14/01
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
71-90
71
90
-19
55avg 67
A23/01
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
76-62
76
62
+14
73avg 67
A28/01
Super 8
Flamengo
#1
L
82-83
82
83
-1
69avg 67
A31/01
Super 8
Unifacisa
#6
W
75-69
75
69
+6
68avg 67
A08/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
64-51
64
51
+13
54avg 67
A10/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
80-51
80
51
+29
78avg 67
H16/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
71-81
71
81
-10
69avg 67
H02/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-11
14-13
17-17
11-25
25-25
12-18
16-31
23-24
22-17
17-19
21-12
25-20
12-31
16-16
24-26
19-17
25-15
19-14
14-18
18-15
20-22
10-18
19-16
33-27
25-23
16-14
11-20
23-12
24-11
14-17
8-13
18-10
26-17
19-13
19-12
16-9
17-19
19-30
18-12
17-20
145.4Avg total
73.5Scored
71.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)74.371.0145.3+3.265%
Season at home (14)75.872.6148.4+3.157%
Season away (12)72.569.2141.7+3.375%
Last 10 (10)73.571.9145.4+1.650%
Last 5 (5)74.467.0141.4+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)67.287.5154.8-20.20%
vs Similar (12)72.069.9141.9+2.150%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)79.267.7146.9+11.592%
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -6.2-6.2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +2.4+2.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -6.2-6.2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: -1.0-1.0Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +2.4+2.4
PatoPaulistano
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cerrado
#17
L
35-36
35
36
-1
A08/01
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H13/01
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H15/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
51-49
51
49
+2
H24/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
34-53
34
53
-19
H05/02
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H07/02
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
33-47
33
47
-14
A15/02
NBB
Franca
#1
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A17/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
31-43
31
43
-12
A02/03
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A04/03
NBB
81.0Avg total
37.3Scored
43.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.940.178.0-2.243%-
Last 30 at home (13)37.739.176.8-1.438%-
Last 30 away (17)38.140.978.9-2.847%-
Last 10 (10)37.343.781.0-6.430%-
Last 5 (5)36.243.679.8-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)37.743.280.9-5.536%-
vs Similar (12)35.339.875.2-4.525%-
vs Weaker (7)42.635.778.3+6.986%-
This opponent (Paulistano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PaulistanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bauru
#5
W
27-24
27
24
+3
H08/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H10/01
NBB
Botafogo
#15
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A14/01
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A23/01
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
44-29
44
29
+15
A28/01
Super 8
Flamengo
#1
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A31/01
Super 8
Unifacisa
#6
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A08/02
NBB
Cearense
#8
W
38-28
38
28
+10
A10/02
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H16/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
36-49
36
49
-13
H02/03
NBB
72.8Avg total
36.5Scored
36.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.334.972.3+2.460%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.735.073.7+3.757%-
Last 30 away (16)36.134.971.0+1.262%-
Last 10 (10)36.536.372.8+0.260%-
Last 5 (5)38.036.874.8+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.044.276.2-12.20%-
vs Similar (12)36.235.471.6+0.850%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)39.532.171.6+7.585%-
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 75.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.7 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.019.6
53.0%
51.8%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.28.9
31.6%
33.9%26.7
🏀 Free throws14.89.8
66.2%
72.6%9.8
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Paulistanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paulistano: 72.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.119.0
49.9%
51.8%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.57.2
28.2%
33.9%21.6
🏀 Free throws17.312.7
73.4%
72.6%12.7
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
LLLLLLWLWW
Paulistano
LWWWLWLWLL
#12
League position
#7
-9.5
Net rating
+0.7
106.0
Offensive rating
98.4
115.5
Defensive rating
97.7
50.5%
Effective FG%
46.9%
56.0%
Opp. effective FG%
49.5%
15.3%
Turnover %
17.2%
30.0%
Off. rebound %
27.3%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.27
31.6%
3-point %
28.2%
57.9%
Assist %
60.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence106.0 · 98.4Defence115.5 · 97.7Shooting50.5% · 46.9%3-point %31.6% · 28.2%Ball care15.3% · 17.2%Off. rebounds30.0% · 27.3%Free throws0.23 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Pato   ■ Paulistano
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Pato wins
8
Paulistano wins
DateGameScore
22/11/23Paulistano v Pato79-68
23/04/23Paulistano v Pato92-78
21/04/23Paulistano v Pato90-57
18/04/23Pato v Paulistano82-70
17/01/23Pato v Paulistano75-87
24/10/22Paulistano v Pato76-69
26/01/22Paulistano v Pato82-86
30/10/21Pato v Paulistano55-68
02/04/21Pato v Paulistano49-87
12/12/20Paulistano v Pato75-68
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/24AUnifacisa79-85
02/03/24ACearense69-90
17/02/24AFranca65-97
15/02/24ABauru79-89
07/02/24HSao Paulo74-80
05/02/24HSao Jose80-88
24/01/24HBotafogo97-86
15/01/24HVasco67-76
13/01/24HFlamengo97-91 OT
08/01/24ACerrado82-75
Paulistanolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/24HCorinthians Paulista71-81
16/02/24HPinheiros80-51
10/02/24ACearense64-51
08/02/24AUnifacisa75-69
31/01/24AFlamengo82-83
28/01/24AVasco76-62
23/01/24ASao Paulo71-90
14/01/24ABotafogo85-68
10/01/24HFranca76-98
08/01/24HBauru55-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL38%
HomeWLWLL54%
AwayWLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291316
Win %38%54%25%
Points / game76.579.474.2
Allowed / game80.276.982.8
Point differential-3.7+2.5-8.6
Avg total156.7156.3157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%23%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (6)0% (1)
Overtime %3%8%0%
Paulistano
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL65%
HomeWLLWL57%
AwayWWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %65%57%75%
Points / game74.375.872.5
Allowed / game71.072.669.2
Point differential+3.2+3.1+3.3
Avg total145.3148.4141.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%43%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)0% (1)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo2723485%85.974.0+11.9
2 Franca2622485%88.076.0+12.0
3 Minas2721678%87.173.9+13.2
4 Vasco2821775%76.871.8+4.9
5 Bauru29191066%80.578.7+1.8
6 Paulistano2617965%74.371.0+3.2
7 Unifacisa30181260%83.479.3+4.1
8 Sao Jose27151256%80.777.4+3.2
9 Corinthians Paulista28151354%80.478.6+1.8
10 Cearense29151452%78.777.4+1.3
11 Sao Paulo27131448%78.880.5-1.7
12 Pinheiros28131546%75.677.2-1.6
13 Pato29111838%76.580.2-3.7
14 Uniao Corinthians28101836%75.383.1-7.8
15 Cerrado2781930%75.476.6-1.2
16 Caxias do Sul2982128%72.179.8-7.8
17 Botafogo3072323%77.786.5-8.8
18 Mogi2852318%72.981.2-8.3
19 Brasilia2742315%71.385.9-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato1728251383
Paulistano1720142273
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