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Real Madrid vs Paris Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 18 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 19:45
Final 95-90
24-21 25-29 21-24 25-16
Position#2
Record9-7
FormWWWWL
Points / game84.7
Allowed / game83.2
vs
Position#16
Record5-11
FormWWLLL
Points / game89.9
Allowed / game92.7
EuropeEuroleagueRound 17· Movistar Arena
European cup2025
Meetings · Real Madrid v Paris
04 Feb 2027
MAD v PRS
upcoming
18 Dec 2025
MAD95
PRS90
15 Apr 2025
MAD73
PRS81
03 Apr 2025
MAD105
PRS104
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Paris winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Panathinaikos
#7
L
77-87
77
87
-10
70avg 81
H13/11
Euroleague
Bilbao
#7
W
82-70
82
70
+12
71avg 81
H16/11
ACB
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
W
100-99
100
99
+1
92avg 81
H20/11
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
111-100
111
100
+11
103avg 81
A22/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
75-74
75
74
+1
69avg 81
A25/11
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#19
W
81-75
81
75
+6
82avg 81
A04/12
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
W
71-70
71
70
+1
66avg 81
A07/12
ACB
Baskonia
#18
W
94-87
94
87
+7
91avg 81
H11/12
Euroleague
Basquet Girona
#12
W
112-76
112
76
+36
110avg 81
H14/12
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#13
L
82-89
82
89
-7
68avg 81
A16/12
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-22
22-30
21-21
18-14
23-16
16-27
24-19
19-8
22-16
21-21
19-25
38-37
31-29
25-19
22-31
33-21
22-18
17-18
21-22
15-16
17-17
20-24
23-18
21-16
18-16
15-9
16-23
22-22
24-23
18-16
29-21
23-27
28-22
31-27
27-16
26-11
21-23
18-27
21-16
22-23
171.2Avg total
88.5Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)84.783.2167.9+1.556%
Season at home (7)88.980.9169.7+8.086%
Season away (9)81.485.0166.4-3.633%
Last 10 (10)88.582.7171.2+5.880%
Last 5 (5)88.079.4167.4+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.098.0192.0-4.00%
vs Similar (9)87.183.9171.0+3.267%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)87.581.4168.9+6.174%
This opponent (Paris) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ParisLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormParis
Date
Competition
JL Bourg
#7
W
91-75
91
75
+16
87avg 90
A15/11
LNB
Olympiacos
#1
L
86-98
86
98
-12
82avg 90
A21/11
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
L
89-90
89
90
-1
79avg 90
A25/11
Euroleague
Monaco
#1
L
103-109
103
109
-6
90avg 90
A02/12
French Cup
Monaco
#10
L
104-125
104
125
-21
85avg 90
A04/12
Euroleague
Saint Quentin
#14
W
99-69
99
69
+30
95avg 90
H07/12
LNB
Le Portel
#16
W
110-80
110
80
+30
107avg 90
H09/12
LNB
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
L
105-108
105
108
-3
95avg 90
H11/12
Euroleague
Nancy
#10
L
90-97
90
97
-7
82avg 90
A13/12
LNB
Barcelona
#8
L
69-85
69
85
-16
56avg 90
H16/12
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-15
27-18
26-16
22-26
29-21
20-37
20-17
17-23
32-17
13-29
21-13
23-31
25-33
33-32
16-15
29-29
29-35
17-23
24-33
34-34
36-20
12-19
21-17
30-13
21-15
32-23
24-16
33-26
29-28
27-20
17-32
32-28
26-22
15-25
24-31
25-19
13-30
16-22
23-16
17-17
188.2Avg total
94.6Scored
93.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)89.992.7182.6-2.831%
Season at home (9)89.390.1179.4-0.833%
Season away (7)90.796.0186.7-5.329%
Last 10 (10)94.693.6188.2+1.030%
Last 5 (5)94.687.8182.4+6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)90.297.0187.2-6.825%
vs Similar (14)88.492.6181.1-4.221%
vs Weaker (11)100.280.9181.1+19.382%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +1.6+1.6
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.0+2.0Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -1.5-1.5Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: +1.6+1.6
Real MadridParis
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Panathinaikos
#7
L
38-52
38
52
-14
H13/11
Euroleague
Bilbao
#7
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H16/11
ACB
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H20/11
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A22/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
39-36
39
36
+3
A25/11
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A04/12
Euroleague
Tenerife
#8
W
33-25
33
25
+8
A07/12
ACB
Baskonia
#18
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H11/12
Euroleague
Basquet Girona
#12
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H14/12
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#13
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A16/12
Euroleague
84.5Avg total
42.5Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.442.186.5+2.357%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.741.386.1+3.460%-
Last 30 away (15)44.142.987.0+1.153%-
Last 10 (10)42.542.084.5+0.560%-
Last 5 (5)42.040.882.8+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)44.051.095.0-7.00%-
vs Similar (9)44.342.186.4+2.256%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)44.941.586.5+3.463%-
This opponent (Paris) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ParisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
JL Bourg
#7
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A15/11
LNB
Olympiacos
#1
L
49-58
49
58
-9
A21/11
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A25/11
Euroleague
Monaco
#1
L
58-65
58
65
-7
A02/12
French Cup
Monaco
#10
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A04/12
Euroleague
Saint Quentin
#14
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H07/12
LNB
Le Portel
#16
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H09/12
LNB
Zalgiris Kaunas
#5
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H11/12
Euroleague
Nancy
#10
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A13/12
LNB
Barcelona
#8
L
29-52
29
52
-23
H16/12
Euroleague
95.2Avg total
46.8Scored
48.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.246.592.7-0.343%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.647.893.4-2.243%-
Last 30 away (16)46.845.492.2+1.344%-
Last 10 (10)46.848.495.2-1.640%-
Last 5 (5)45.444.890.2+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)49.048.897.8+0.250%-
vs Similar (14)42.048.490.4-6.421%-
vs Weaker (11)49.541.791.2+7.773%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 87.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.7 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.621.4
54.0%
60.4%42.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.78.0
33.8%
35.9%24.0
🏀 Free throws24.920.7
83.1%
78.2%20.7
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Paristheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Paris: 94.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.120.4
52.2%
60.4%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.812.7
38.7%
35.9%38.1
🏀 Free throws20.115.2
75.6%
78.2%15.2
They take 71.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
LWWWWWWWWL
Paris
LLLWWLLLLW
#2
League position
#16
+7.5
Net rating
+1.6
117.0
Offensive rating
117.0
109.6
Defensive rating
115.4
52.8%
Effective FG%
54.9%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
55.5%
16.4%
Turnover %
18.6%
33.7%
Off. rebound %
39.0%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.28
33.8%
3-point %
38.7%
51.7%
Assist %
54.1%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence117.0 · 117.0Defence109.6 · 115.4Shooting52.8% · 54.9%3-point %33.8% · 38.7%Ball care16.4% · 18.6%Off. rebounds33.7% · 39.0%Free throws0.39 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)80% · 30%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Paris
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Real Madrid wins
1
Paris wins
DateGameScore
15/04/25Real Madrid v Paris73-81
03/04/25Real Madrid v Paris105-104
17/12/24Paris v Real Madrid85-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/25AOlimpia Milano82-89
14/12/25HBasquet Girona112-76
11/12/25HBaskonia94-87
07/12/25ATenerife71-70
04/12/25AAnadolu Efes81-75
25/11/25AHapoel Tel-Aviv75-74
22/11/25AGranada111-100
20/11/25HZalgiris Kaunas100-99
16/11/25HBilbao82-70
13/11/25HPanathinaikos77-87
Parislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/12/25HBarcelona69-85
13/12/25ANancy90-97
11/12/25HZalgiris Kaunas105-108
09/12/25HLe Portel110-80
07/12/25HSaint Quentin99-69
04/12/25AMonaco104-125
02/12/25AMonaco103-109
25/11/25ADubai89-90
21/11/25AOlympiacos86-98
15/11/25AJL Bourg91-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL56%
HomeWWLWW86%
AwayWLWWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %56%86%33%
Points / game84.788.981.4
Allowed / game83.280.985.0
Point differential+1.5+8.0-3.6
Avg total167.9169.7166.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%43%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Paris
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL31%
HomeLLWLL33%
AwayWLLLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %31%33%29%
Points / game89.989.390.7
Allowed / game92.790.196.0
Point differential-2.8-0.8-5.3
Avg total182.6179.4186.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%22%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)25% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Hapoel Tel-Aviv1712571%88.983.4+5.5
2 Barcelona1611569%86.383.2+3.1
3 Valencia1711665%89.585.5+4.0
4 Panathinaikos1711665%88.585.5+3.0
5 Fenerbahce1610662%80.778.8+1.9
6 Monaco169756%89.483.8+5.6
7 Crvena zvezda169756%85.181.9+3.2
8 Zalgiris Kaunas169756%85.682.4+3.2
9 Real Madrid169756%84.783.2+1.5
10 Olympiacos158753%86.784.0+2.7
11 Olimpia Milano179853%84.484.2+0.2
12 Virtus Bologna168850%81.281.8-0.6
13 Dubai167944%86.488.1-1.6
14 Maccabi Tel Aviv1771041%89.191.6-2.6
15 Baskonia1661038%85.888.4-2.7
16 Anadolu Efes1661038%80.684.9-4.2
17 Partizan1661038%81.286.4-5.2
18 Paris1651131%89.992.7-2.8
19 Bayern1651131%77.983.6-5.7
20 Lyon-Villeurbanne1641225%76.685.5-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Real Madrid2425212595
Paris2129241690
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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