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Real Madrid vs Virtus Bologna Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 19:45
Final 92-84
22-23 24-17 18-21 28-23
Position#2
Record18-11
FormLWWWW
Points / game87.4
Allowed / game82.8
Real Madrid 🏆
vs
Virtus Bologna
Position#17
Record13-16
FormLWLWW
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game84.3
EuropeEuroleagueRound 30· Movistar Arena
European cup2025
Meetings · Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna
11 Mar 2027
MAD v VIR
upcoming
05 Mar 2026
MAD92
VIR84
12 Nov 2024
MAD98
VIR86
09 Nov 2023
MAD100
VIR74
27 Oct 2022
MAD91
VIR95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Bologna winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Monaco
#10
W
90-78
90
78
+12
93avg 83
H22/01
Euroleague
Breogan
#11
W
103-85
103
85
+18
103avg 83
A24/01
ACB
Paris
#16
L
92-98
92
98
-6
91avg 83
A27/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
99-78
99
78
+21
78avg 83
H01/02
ACB
Panathinaikos
#7
L
81-82
81
82
-1
79avg 83
A03/02
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
L
85-93
85
93
-8
76avg 83
A05/02
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
94-79
94
79
+15
93avg 83
H08/02
ACB
Partizan
#15
W
77-73
77
73
+4
75avg 83
A13/02
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
W
96-92
96
92
+4
94avg 83
A15/02
ACB
Bayern
#14
W
93-70
93
70
+23
100avg 83
H26/02
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-13
31-18
17-22
19-25
19-19
24-24
27-22
33-20
18-24
24-26
24-25
26-23
21-22
24-19
20-14
34-23
26-16
18-20
17-24
20-22
19-11
25-26
24-32
17-24
24-19
16-17
30-18
24-25
20-19
23-14
19-28
15-12
20-25
19-31
34-25
23-11
19-12
34-21
25-14
15-23
173.8Avg total
91.0Scored
82.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)87.482.8170.2+4.662%
Season at home (14)92.280.1172.3+12.193%
Season away (15)82.985.3168.2-2.533%
Last 10 (10)91.082.8173.8+8.270%
Last 5 (5)89.081.4170.4+7.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.079.0173.0+15.0100%
vs Similar (6)88.786.5175.2+2.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)92.482.1174.5+10.387%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Crvena zvezda
#9
L
93-102
93
102
-9
85avg 79
H23/01
Euroleague
Cremona
#12
W
84-74
84
74
+10
83avg 79
A26/01
Lega A
Monaco
#10
W
84-82
84
82
+2
84avg 79
A30/01
Euroleague
Trento
#9
L
85-87
85
87
-2
87avg 79
H01/02
Lega A
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#20
L
70-80
70
80
-10
64avg 79
H04/02
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#1
L
77-109
77
109
-32
66avg 79
A06/02
Euroleague
Brescia
#4
W
87-79
87
79
+8
78avg 79
A09/02
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
60-91
60
91
-31
48avg 79
A12/02
Euroleague
Udine
#13
W
90-86
90
86
+4
87avg 79
H15/02
Lega A
Barcelona
#8
W
85-80
85
80
+5
84avg 79
H25/02
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-31
26-26
16-25
25-20
22-19
24-14
20-17
18-24
22-30
22-21
18-14
22-17
23-20
21-22
28-21
13-24
17-21
16-22
21-12
16-25
23-24
11-37
16-28
27-20
23-19
23-18
25-18
16-24
19-22
16-21
10-21
15-27
31-15
23-34
17-16
19-21
20-28
27-15
21-14
17-23
168.5Avg total
81.5Scored
87.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)81.484.3165.7-2.845%
Season at home (14)85.482.8168.2+2.664%
Season away (15)77.785.7163.4-7.927%
Last 10 (10)81.587.0168.5-5.550%
Last 5 (5)79.889.0168.8-9.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)81.084.8165.8-3.838%
vs Similar (8)81.080.2161.2+0.862%
vs Weaker (9)78.168.8146.9+9.389%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: -3.7-3.7
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +2.2+2.2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +1.8+1.8Q4: -3.7-3.7
Real MadridVirtus Bologna
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Monaco
#10
W
54-31
54
31
+23
H22/01
Euroleague
Breogan
#11
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A24/01
ACB
Paris
#16
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A27/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H01/02
ACB
Panathinaikos
#7
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A03/02
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A05/02
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H08/02
ACB
Partizan
#15
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A13/02
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
L
39-56
39
56
-17
A15/02
ACB
Bayern
#14
W
53-33
53
33
+20
H26/02
Euroleague
84.3Avg total
44.7Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.341.886.1+2.557%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.442.690.0+4.964%-
Last 30 away (16)41.641.282.8+0.450%-
Last 10 (10)44.739.684.3+5.170%-
Last 5 (5)43.839.082.8+4.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)43.043.086.0+0.00%-
vs Similar (6)44.238.382.5+5.867%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)44.442.787.1+1.757%-
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Crvena zvezda
#9
L
52-57
52
57
-5
H23/01
Euroleague
Cremona
#12
W
46-33
46
33
+13
A26/01
Lega A
Monaco
#10
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A30/01
Euroleague
Trento
#9
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H01/02
Lega A
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#20
L
33-43
33
43
-10
H04/02
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#1
L
34-61
34
61
-27
A06/02
Euroleague
Brescia
#4
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A09/02
Lega A
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A12/02
Euroleague
Udine
#13
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H15/02
Lega A
Barcelona
#8
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H25/02
Euroleague
89.4Avg total
43.5Scored
45.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)42.641.584.1+1.162%-
Last 30 at home (15)45.542.187.6+3.367%-
Last 30 away (14)39.540.880.3-1.357%-
Last 10 (10)43.545.989.4-2.450%-
Last 5 (5)43.246.689.8-3.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)41.543.685.2-2.154%-
vs Similar (8)41.640.682.2+1.050%-
vs Weaker (8)45.238.984.1+6.488%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 85.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.2 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.418.8
63.9%
60.4%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.211.4
40.4%
35.9%34.2
🏀 Free throws19.313.8
71.5%
78.2%13.8
They take 57.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 79.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.420.9
60.8%
60.4%41.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.28.7
34.5%
35.9%26.1
🏀 Free throws15.311.9
77.8%
78.2%11.9
They take 59.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WWWWLLWLWW
Virtus Bologna
WWLWLLLWWL
#2
League position
#17
+6.7
Net rating
-7.5
98.8
Offensive rating
91.5
92.0
Defensive rating
99.0
62.3%
Effective FG%
57.0%
52.0%
Opp. effective FG%
58.4%
17.4%
Turnover %
15.9%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.26
40.4%
3-point %
34.5%
69.5%
Assist %
64.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence98.8 · 91.5Defence92.0 · 99.0Shooting62.3% · 57.0%3-point %40.4% · 34.5%Ball care17.4% · 15.9%Free throws0.34 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Virtus Bologna
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Real Madrid wins
2
Virtus Bologna wins
DateGameScore
30/09/25Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid74-68
13/03/25Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid67-80
12/11/24Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna98-86
15/03/24Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid74-89
09/11/23Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna100-74
24/03/23Virtus Bologna v Real Madrid79-96
27/10/22Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna91-95
Real Madridlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/02/26HBayern93-70
15/02/26AUnicaja96-92
13/02/26APartizan77-73
08/02/26HGranada94-79
05/02/26ADubai85-93
03/02/26APanathinaikos81-82
01/02/26HBasket Zaragoza99-78
27/01/26AParis92-98
24/01/26ABreogan103-85
22/01/26HMonaco90-78
Virtus Bolognalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/02/26HBarcelona85-80
15/02/26HUdine90-86
12/02/26AAnadolu Efes60-91
09/02/26ABrescia87-79
06/02/26AOlympiacos77-109
04/02/26HLyon-Villeurbanne70-80
01/02/26HTrento85-87
30/01/26AMonaco84-82
26/01/26ACremona84-74
23/01/26HCrvena zvezda93-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW62%
HomeWWWWW93%
AwayWLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %62%93%33%
Points / game87.492.282.9
Allowed / game82.880.185.3
Point differential+4.6+12.1-2.5
Avg total170.2172.3168.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%64%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)100% (2)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virtus Bologna
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW45%
HomeWLLLW64%
AwayLWWLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %45%64%27%
Points / game81.485.477.7
Allowed / game84.382.885.7
Point differential-2.8+2.6-7.9
Avg total165.7168.2163.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%29%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)57% (7)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Fenerbahce2922776%82.778.9+3.8
2 Valencia30201067%91.085.9+5.1
3 Olympiacos28181064%90.184.3+5.9
4 Real Madrid29181162%87.482.8+4.6
5 Hapoel Tel-Aviv28171161%86.583.4+3.1
6 Crvena zvezda29171259%87.485.5+1.9
7 Zalgiris Kaunas30171357%89.083.8+5.1
8 Barcelona30171357%86.084.9+1.0
9 Panathinaikos29161355%85.784.3+1.4
10 Monaco30161453%90.186.3+3.8
11 Dubai29151452%88.087.6+0.4
12 Olimpia Milano30151550%85.486.2-0.8
13 Maccabi Tel Aviv29141548%89.691.7-2.2
14 Virtus Bologna29131645%81.484.3-2.8
15 Bayern29121741%80.584.0-3.5
16 Paris28101836%89.591.9-2.4
17 Anadolu Efes2992031%80.284.0-3.8
18 Baskonia2992031%87.092.3-5.2
19 Partizan2992031%80.087.8-7.8
20 Lyon-Villeurbanne2972224%78.486.2-7.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Real Madrid2224182892
Virtus Bologna2317212384
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