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Real Madrid vs Bayern Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 26 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 19:45
Final 93-70
19-12 34-21 25-14 15-23
Position#2
Record17-11
FormLLWWW
Points / game87.2
Allowed / game83.2
vs
Position#14
Record12-16
FormWLWWL
Points / game80.9
Allowed / game83.7
EuropeEuroleagueRound 29· Movistar Arena
European cup2025
Meetings · Real Madrid v Bayern
15 Dec 2026
MAD v BAY
upcoming
26 Feb 2026
MAD93
BAY70
18 Apr 2025
MAD93
BAY71
03 Jan 2025
MAD88
BAY76
14 Dec 2023
MAD88
BAY73
06 Apr 2023
MAD79
BAY67
08 Apr 2022
MAD88
BAY97
29 Oct 2020
MAD100
BAY82
22 Feb 2019
MAD91
BAY78
05 Nov 2015
MAD101
BAY99
15 Jan 2014
MAD111
BAY87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bayern winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#13
W
106-77
106
77
+29
114avg 83
H20/01
Euroleague
Monaco
#10
W
90-78
90
78
+12
93avg 83
H22/01
Euroleague
Breogan
#11
W
103-85
103
85
+18
103avg 83
A24/01
ACB
Paris
#16
L
92-98
92
98
-6
91avg 83
A27/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
99-78
99
78
+21
78avg 83
H01/02
ACB
Panathinaikos
#7
L
81-82
81
82
-1
79avg 83
A03/02
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
L
85-93
85
93
-8
76avg 83
A05/02
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
94-79
94
79
+15
93avg 83
H08/02
ACB
Partizan
#15
W
77-73
77
73
+4
75avg 83
A13/02
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
W
96-92
96
92
+4
94avg 83
A15/02
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-23
24-13
24-19
28-22
23-13
31-18
17-22
19-25
19-19
24-24
27-22
33-20
18-24
24-26
24-25
26-23
21-22
24-19
20-14
34-23
26-16
18-20
17-24
20-22
19-11
25-26
24-32
17-24
24-19
16-17
30-18
24-25
20-19
23-14
19-28
15-12
20-25
19-31
34-25
23-11
175.8Avg total
92.3Scored
83.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)87.283.2170.4+3.961%
Season at home (13)92.280.8173.0+11.392%
Season away (15)82.985.3168.2-2.533%
Last 10 (10)92.383.5175.8+8.870%
Last 5 (5)86.683.8170.4+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.079.0173.0+15.0100%
vs Similar (7)90.388.3178.6+2.057%
vs Weaker ◀ (22)92.482.7175.0+9.786%
This opponent (Bayern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayernLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBayern
Date
Competition
Wurzburg
#5
W
98-79
98
79
+19
102avg 79
H25/01
BBL
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
79-64
79
64
+15
74avg 79
A29/01
Euroleague
Ulm
#6
L
62-79
62
79
-17
49avg 79
H01/02
BBL
Paris
#16
W
81-75
81
75
+6
78avg 79
H03/02
Euroleague
Monaco
#10
W
91-82
91
82
+9
86avg 79
H05/02
Euroleague
Heidelberg
#18
W
106-63
106
63
+43
106avg 79
A08/02
BBL
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#12
L
106-111 OT
106
111
-5
99avg 79
A12/02
Euroleague
Jena
#16
W
106-61
106
61
+45
111avg 79
A15/02
BBL
Frankfurt
#15
W
85-76
85
76
+9
82avg 79
H17/02
BBL
Bamberg
#1
L
97-103 OT
97
103
-6
94avg 79
H21/02
German Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-14
17-22
28-15
33-28
23-26
20-13
18-11
18-14
14-18
23-23
18-19
7-19
21-18
13-13
18-18
29-26
24-23
24-16
20-24
23-19
31-17
23-16
27-18
25-12
20-26
25-25
33-23
21-25
28-21
32-12
32-14
14-14
19-25
24-20
25-21
17-10
22-20
14-14
17-20
30-29
170.4Avg total
91.1Scored
79.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (28)80.983.7164.5-2.843%
Season at home (15)81.979.8161.7+2.167%
Season away (13)79.788.2167.8-8.515%
Last 10 (10)91.179.3170.4+11.870%
Last 5 (5)100.082.8182.8+17.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)82.484.7167.1-2.357%
vs Similar (7)87.784.9172.6+2.943%
vs Weaker (16)87.671.0158.6+16.681%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: +4.1+4.1Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: +2.1+2.1
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +2.0+2.0Q2: +4.1+4.1Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +5.3+5.3Q4Q4: +3.2+3.2Q4: +2.1+2.1
Real MadridBayern
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#13
W
54-36
54
36
+18
H20/01
Euroleague
Monaco
#10
W
54-31
54
31
+23
H22/01
Euroleague
Breogan
#11
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A24/01
ACB
Paris
#16
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A27/01
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#17
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H01/02
ACB
Panathinaikos
#7
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A03/02
Euroleague
Dubai
#11
W
44-37
44
37
+7
A05/02
Euroleague
Granada
#18
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H08/02
ACB
Partizan
#15
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A13/02
Euroleague
Unicaja
#9
L
39-56
39
56
-17
A15/02
ACB
84.7Avg total
44.8Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.042.085.9+2.057%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.742.989.6+3.964%-
Last 30 away (16)41.641.282.8+0.450%-
Last 10 (10)44.839.984.7+4.970%-
Last 5 (5)42.039.681.6+2.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)43.043.086.0+0.00%-
vs Similar (7)44.038.182.1+5.971%-
vs Weaker ◀ (22)44.043.187.1+0.955%-
This opponent (Bayern) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BayernLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wurzburg
#5
W
37-36
37
36
+1
H25/01
BBL
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A29/01
Euroleague
Ulm
#6
L
37-41
37
41
-4
H01/02
BBL
Paris
#16
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H03/02
Euroleague
Monaco
#10
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H05/02
Euroleague
Heidelberg
#18
W
54-33
54
33
+21
A08/02
BBL
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#12
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A12/02
Euroleague
Jena
#16
W
60-33
60
33
+27
A15/02
BBL
Frankfurt
#15
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H17/02
BBL
Bamberg
#1
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H21/02
German Cup
81.9Avg total
43.7Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.437.980.2+4.563%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.738.378.0+1.553%-
Last 30 away (15)45.037.582.5+7.573%-
Last 10 (10)43.738.281.9+5.570%-
Last 5 (5)47.639.286.8+8.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)43.143.686.7-0.443%-
vs Similar (7)41.140.181.3+1.057%-
vs Weaker (16)42.634.476.9+8.275%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 91.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.521.1
63.0%
60.4%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.011.1
41.1%
35.9%33.3
🏀 Free throws21.415.6
72.9%
78.2%15.6
They take 60.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bayerntheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bayern: 90.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 75.0 points a game
48%
38%
14%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.320.8
57.3%
60.4%41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.111.0
37.8%
35.9%33.0
🏀 Free throws20.516.0
78.0%
78.2%16.0
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 47%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
WWWLLWLWWW
Bayern
LWWLWWWLWW
#2
League position
#14
+10.0
Net rating
+13.2
108.1
Offensive rating
102.9
98.1
Defensive rating
89.8
62.4%
Effective FG%
57.0%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
16.3%
Turnover %
15.0%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.31
41.1%
3-point %
37.8%
64.3%
Assist %
67.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence108.1 · 102.9Defence98.1 · 89.8Shooting62.4% · 57.0%3-point %41.1% · 37.8%Ball care16.3% · 15.0%Free throws0.35 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Bayern
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Real Madrid wins
3
Bayern wins
DateGameScore
28/10/25Bayern v Real Madrid90-84
18/04/25Real Madrid v Bayern93-71
03/01/25Real Madrid v Bayern88-76
03/10/24Bayern v Real Madrid97-89
09/01/24Bayern v Real Madrid71-92
14/12/23Real Madrid v Bayern88-73
06/04/23Real Madrid v Bayern79-67
13/12/22Bayern v Real Madrid64-68
08/04/22Real Madrid v Bayern88-97
05/11/21Bayern v Real Madrid76-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/02/26AUnicaja96-92
13/02/26APartizan77-73
08/02/26HGranada94-79
05/02/26ADubai85-93
03/02/26APanathinaikos81-82
01/02/26HBasket Zaragoza99-78
27/01/26AParis92-98
24/01/26ABreogan103-85
22/01/26HMonaco90-78
20/01/26HOlimpia Milano106-77
Bayernlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/02/26HBamberg97-103 OT
17/02/26HFrankfurt85-76
15/02/26AJena106-61
12/02/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv106-111 OT
08/02/26AHeidelberg106-63
05/02/26HMonaco91-82
03/02/26HParis81-75
01/02/26HUlm62-79
29/01/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv79-64
25/01/26HWurzburg98-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW61%
HomeWWWWW92%
AwayWLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281315
Win %61%92%33%
Points / game87.292.282.9
Allowed / game83.280.885.3
Point differential+3.9+11.3-2.5
Avg total170.4173.0168.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%62%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)100% (2)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Bayern
Euroleague 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL43%
HomeWLWWW67%
AwayLLLWL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games281513
Win %43%67%15%
Points / game80.981.979.7
Allowed / game83.779.888.2
Point differential-2.8+2.1-8.5
Avg total164.5161.7167.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%20%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)33% (3)20% (5)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Fenerbahce2821775%82.579.2+3.3
2 Valencia29191066%91.085.9+5.1
3 Olympiacos28181064%90.184.3+5.9
4 Real Madrid28171161%87.283.2+3.9
5 Hapoel Tel-Aviv28171161%86.583.4+3.1
6 Zalgiris Kaunas29171259%89.083.6+5.4
7 Crvena zvezda29171259%87.485.5+1.9
8 Barcelona29171259%86.084.9+1.2
9 Panathinaikos28161257%85.283.6+1.6
10 Monaco29161355%90.886.3+4.5
11 Dubai29151452%88.087.6+0.4
12 Olimpia Milano29141548%85.386.3-1.0
13 Maccabi Tel Aviv29141548%89.691.7-2.2
14 Virtus Bologna29131645%81.484.3-2.8
15 Bayern28121643%80.983.7-2.8
16 Paris2791833%89.091.6-2.7
17 Anadolu Efes2992031%80.284.0-3.8
18 Baskonia2992031%87.092.3-5.2
19 Partizan2992031%80.087.8-7.8
20 Lyon-Villeurbanne2972224%78.486.2-7.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Real Madrid1934251593
Bayern1221142370
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