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Real Madrid vs Virtus Bologna Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 11 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:45
Scheduled
Position#8
Record6-4
FormWWWWL
Points / game97.8
Allowed / game90.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.4/10
Above normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Position#13
Record4-5
FormLWLLL
Points / game86.8
Allowed / game89.1
EuropeEuroleagueRound 31· Movistar Arena
European cup2026
Meetings · Real Madrid v Virtus Bologna
11 Mar 2027
MAD v VIR
upcoming
05 Mar 2026
MAD92
VIR84
12 Nov 2024
MAD98
VIR86
09 Nov 2023
MAD100
VIR74
27 Oct 2022
MAD91
VIR95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Bologna win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Manresa
#18
W
120-83
120
83
+37
122avg 92
H11/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
98-89
98
89
+9
95avg 92
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 92
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 92
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 92
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 92
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 92
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#4
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 92
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
90-79
90
79
+11
no box
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-22
28-16
24-18
34-27
21-25
32-15
31-27
14-22
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
197.3Avg total
108.4Scored
88.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)97.890.7188.5+7.160%
Season at home (4)101.089.8190.8+11.275%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)108.488.9197.3+19.590%
Last 5 (5)104.688.4193.0+16.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)96.791.8188.5+4.950%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)99.290.0189.2+9.260%
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBologna
Date
Competition
Bayern
#17
W
94-87
94
87
+7
86avg 83
A08/10
Euroleague
Venezia
#10
W
93-86
93
86
+7
86avg 83
A11/10
Lega A
Paris
#15
W
96-94
96
94
+2
95avg 83
A14/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#20
W
86-78
86
78
+8
81avg 83
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
108-83
108
83
+25
113avg 83
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#9
L
81-90
81
90
-9
65avg 83
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#4
W
98-94 OT
98
94
+4
90avg 83
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#10
L
74-91
74
91
-17
62avg 83
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#11
L
101-103
101
103
-2
97avg 83
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#7
L
93-100
93
100
-7
no box
H02/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-21
17-22
23-25
19-19
20-29
25-22
24-21
24-14
26-26
20-12
18-27
32-29
24-12
22-22
22-19
18-25
32-17
18-19
23-20
35-27
25-23
23-13
14-28
19-26
20-22
17-30
22-15
22-14
22-14
13-23
18-28
21-26
24-24
30-23
20-23
27-33
24-25
31-21
17-31
21-23
183.0Avg total
92.4Scored
90.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)86.889.1175.9-2.344%
Season at home (4)89.291.5180.8-2.250%
Season away (5)84.887.2172.0-2.440%
Last 10 (10)92.490.6183.0+1.860%
Last 5 (5)89.495.6185.0-6.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)79.888.2168.0-8.525%
vs Similar (4)96.094.0190.0+2.075%
vs Weaker (22)91.184.1175.3+7.068%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: +3.9+3.9Q2Q2: +7.4+7.4Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: +0.2+0.2
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +3.6+3.6Q1: +3.9+3.9Q2Q2: +7.4+7.4Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +4.9+4.9Q4: +0.2+0.2
Real MadridVirtus Bologna
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Manresa
#18
W
62-38
62
38
+24
H11/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
53-40
53
40
+13
A13/10
Euroleague
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#18
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#4
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#13
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
95.6Avg total
53.3Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.744.793.5+4.067%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.043.692.6+5.467%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)53.342.395.6+11.080%-
Last 5 (5)48.842.090.8+6.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)46.247.593.7-1.350%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)50.043.493.3+6.675%-
This opponent (Virtus Bologna) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus BolognaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bayern
#17
W
52-43
52
43
+9
A08/10
Euroleague
Venezia
#10
L
45-51
45
51
-6
A11/10
Lega A
Paris
#15
W
46-38
46
38
+8
A14/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#20
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H16/10
Euroleague
Scafati
#15
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H18/10
Lega A
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#9
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A21/10
Euroleague
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A25/10
Lega A
Zalgiris Kaunas
#10
L
35-37
35
37
-2
H28/10
Euroleague
Besiktas
#11
W
54-47
54
47
+7
H30/10
Euroleague
Trieste
#7
W
55-46
55
46
+9
H02/11
Lega A
88.8Avg total
46.8Scored
42.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.941.587.4+4.367%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.742.291.9+7.573%-
Last 30 away (15)42.040.982.9+1.160%-
Last 10 (10)46.842.088.8+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)45.843.689.4+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)42.540.583.0+2.025%-
vs Similar (4)44.243.287.5+1.075%-
vs Weaker (22)46.841.488.2+5.473%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 108.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.9 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.9 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.620.3
57.0%
55.2%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.615.3
43.0%
35.7%45.9
🏀 Free throws26.621.9
82.3%
77.1%21.9
They take 71.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Bolognatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Bologna: 92.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.7 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.821.9
55.0%
55.2%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.8
36.3%
35.7%29.4
🏀 Free throws24.819.7
79.4%
77.1%19.7
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Real Madrid
LWWWWWWWWW
Virtus Bologna
LLLWLWWWWW
#8
League position
#13
+22.2
Net rating
+3.7
114.9
Offensive rating
102.2
92.7
Defensive rating
98.4
60.7%
Effective FG%
54.8%
50.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
13.2%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.37
43.0%
3-point %
36.3%
64.9%
Assist %
57.7%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence114.9 · 102.2Defence92.7 · 98.4Shooting60.7% · 54.8%3-point %43.0% · 36.3%Ball care13.2% · 14.0%Free throws0.37 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)90% · 60%
■ Real Madrid   ■ Virtus Bologna
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Real Madrid wins
2
Virtus Bologna wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92
13/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-89
11/10/26HManresa120-83
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26HTrieste93-100
30/10/26HBesiktas101-103
28/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas74-91
25/10/26AOlimpia Milano98-94 OT
21/10/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv81-90
18/10/26HScafati108-83
16/10/26HBaskonia86-78
14/10/26AParis96-94
11/10/26AVenezia93-86
08/10/26ABayern94-87

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL60%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%75%50%
Points / game97.8101.095.7
Allowed / game90.789.891.3
Point differential+7.1+11.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.8187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%75%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %10%25%0%
Virtus Bologna
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL44%
HomeWWLL50%
AwayLLWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %44%50%40%
Points / game86.889.284.8
Allowed / game89.191.587.2
Point differential-2.3-2.2-2.4
Avg total175.9180.8172.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos108280%87.678.7+8.9
2 Olympiacos97278%90.683.8+6.8
3 Valencia107370%95.889.1+6.7
4 Fenerbahce107370%80.375.4+4.9
5 Barcelona107370%91.088.7+2.3
6 Crvena zvezda96367%85.677.0+8.6
7 Dubai96367%87.485.1+2.3
8 Real Madrid106460%97.890.7+7.1
9 Hapoel Tel-Aviv106460%92.187.9+4.2
10 Zalgiris Kaunas95456%85.984.0+1.9
11 Besiktas94544%90.091.8-1.8
12 Partizan94544%78.480.2-1.8
13 Virtus Bologna94544%86.889.1-2.3
14 Anadolu Efes104640%84.287.1-2.9
15 Paris104640%89.092.6-3.6
16 Lyon-Villeurbanne104640%88.393.0-4.7
17 Bayern103730%86.894.5-7.7
18 Maccabi Tel Aviv92722%86.794.7-8.0
19 Olimpia Milano101910%81.189.6-8.5
20 Baskonia101910%81.393.1-11.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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