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Sao Paulo vs Brasilia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 03 May 2025
Tip-off: 21:30
Final 78-77 (OT)
14-19 12-18 16-11 20-14 16-15
Position#13
Record15-22
FormWWWWL
Points / game76.0
Allowed / game78.7
vs
Position#6
Record20-17
FormLLLLW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game79.7
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Brasilia
03 May 2025
SAO 78
BRAS77
24 Apr 2025
SAO 66
BRAS62
19 Apr 2025
SAO 88
BRAS79
02 Apr 2024
SAO 93
BRAS84
10 Mar 2023
SAO 88
BRAS72
29 Oct 2021
SAO 85
BRAS66
10 Mar 2021
SAO 92
BRAS46
07 Nov 2019
SAO 81
BRAS69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Brasilia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
65-76
65
76
-11
58avg 70
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 70
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 70
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
86-105
86
105
-19
84avg 70
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
85-86
85
86
-1
84avg 70
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
W
71-67
71
67
+4
64avg 70
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
88-79
88
79
+9
86avg 70
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
66-62
66
62
+4
60avg 70
H24/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
69-54
69
54
+15
70avg 70
A28/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
81-86
81
86
-5
72avg 70
A30/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
16-27
17-15
14-14
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
18-17
23-28
17-30
28-30
19-25
25-27
22-16
19-18
16-11
11-16
25-16
19-24
17-27
26-21
31-10
14-21
17-15
16-16
16-16
17-15
24-13
17-9
9-12
19-20
22-19
21-20
16-20
22-27
152.9Avg total
75.0Scored
77.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)76.078.7154.7-2.741%
Season at home (18)75.875.9151.8-0.156%
Season away (19)76.281.3157.5-5.226%
Last 10 (10)75.077.9152.9-2.940%
Last 5 (5)75.069.6144.6+5.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)70.781.3152.0-10.614%
vs Similar ◀ (17)75.979.0154.9-3.135%
vs Weaker (5)78.078.4156.4-0.440%
This opponent (Brasilia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BrasiliaBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrasilia
Date
Competition
Pato
#14
L
80-98
80
98
-18
44avg 70
A14/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
94-71
94
71
+23
88avg 70
H17/03
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
50avg 70
H01/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
77-79
77
79
-2
69avg 70
H05/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
79-88
79
88
-9
73avg 70
H08/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
69-81
69
81
-12
57avg 70
A17/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
79-88
79
88
-9
71avg 70
A19/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
62-66
62
66
-4
51avg 70
A24/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
54-69
54
69
-15
33avg 70
H28/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
W
86-81
86
81
+5
75avg 70
H30/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-25
24-22
19-28
22-23
24-14
22-18
24-22
24-17
25-20
13-29
9-11
16-17
11-20
29-20
26-19
11-20
15-20
12-23
26-23
26-22
13-27
18-21
27-15
11-18
27-17
21-26
10-31
21-14
15-17
16-16
16-16
15-17
13-24
9-17
12-9
20-19
19-22
20-21
20-16
27-22
154.1Avg total
74.3Scored
79.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)80.079.7159.7+0.454%
Season at home (19)80.578.3158.8+2.368%
Season away (18)79.581.2160.7-1.739%
Last 10 (10)74.379.8154.1-5.520%
Last 5 (5)70.077.0147.0-7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)79.285.2164.5-6.025%
vs Similar ◀ (19)77.079.5156.5-2.542%
vs Weaker (6)82.872.8155.7+10.083%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -2.9-2.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.4+0.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -2.9-2.9Q2Q2: -2.6-2.6Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.4+0.4
Sao PauloBrasilia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#15
L
34-47
34
47
-13
A13/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H24/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
41-22
41
22
+19
A28/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A30/04
NBB
78.4Avg total
37.9Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.939.476.3-2.540%-
Last 30 at home (13)36.238.374.5-2.238%-
Last 30 away (17)37.540.277.6-2.741%-
Last 10 (10)37.940.578.4-2.630%-
Last 5 (5)37.433.470.8+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)33.038.471.4-5.414%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)38.238.877.0-0.653%-
vs Weaker (5)37.843.281.0-5.420%-
This opponent (Brasilia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BrasiliaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pato
#14
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A14/03
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H17/03
NBB
Minas
#1
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H01/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H05/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H08/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
31-48
31
48
-17
A17/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A19/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
31-33
31
33
-2
A24/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
22-41
22
41
-19
H28/04
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H30/04
NBB
78.0Avg total
36.1Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.640.279.8-0.637%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.041.681.6-1.638%-
Last 30 away (14)39.138.677.7+0.436%-
Last 10 (10)36.141.978.0-5.820%-
Last 5 (5)34.241.675.8-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)37.543.581.0-6.025%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)38.341.179.3-2.826%-
vs Weaker (6)44.235.579.7+8.767%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 74.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.916.9
51.4%
50.9%33.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.08.7
33.5%
33.0%26.1
🏀 Free throws20.014.1
70.5%
72.7%14.1
They take 58.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Brasiliatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brasilia: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.2 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.114.1
48.5%
50.9%28.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.910.7
32.5%
33.0%32.1
🏀 Free throws18.013.5
75.0%
72.7%13.5
They take 62.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
LWWWWLLLLL
Brasilia
WLLLLLLLWL
#13
League position
#6
-4.6
Net rating
-7.3
99.8
Offensive rating
103.3
104.4
Defensive rating
110.6
50.8%
Effective FG%
48.6%
47.9%
Opp. effective FG%
54.9%
17.8%
Turnover %
18.1%
20.1%
Off. rebound %
29.2%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.29
33.5%
3-point %
32.5%
71.5%
Assist %
55.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence99.8 · 103.3Defence104.4 · 110.6Shooting50.8% · 48.6%3-point %33.5% · 32.5%Ball care17.8% · 18.1%Off. rebounds20.1% · 29.2%Free throws0.34 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)40% · 20%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Brasilia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Sao Paulo wins
1
Brasilia wins
DateGameScore
30/04/25Brasilia v Sao Paulo86-81
28/04/25Brasilia v Sao Paulo54-69
24/04/25Sao Paulo v Brasilia66-62
19/04/25Sao Paulo v Brasilia88-79
21/12/24Brasilia v Sao Paulo83-85
02/04/24Sao Paulo v Brasilia93-84
23/12/23Brasilia v Sao Paulo63-72
10/03/23Sao Paulo v Brasilia88-72
17/12/22Brasilia v Sao Paulo89-96
25/01/22Brasilia v Sao Paulo86-90 OT
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/04/25ABrasilia81-86
28/04/25ABrasilia69-54
24/04/25HBrasilia66-62
19/04/25HBrasilia88-79
12/04/25HMinas71-67
05/04/25ABotafogo85-86
04/04/25AFlamengo86-105
28/03/25HPato65-69
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
13/03/25ACaxias do Sul65-76
Brasilialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/04/25HSao Paulo86-81
28/04/25HSao Paulo54-69
24/04/25ASao Paulo62-66
19/04/25ASao Paulo79-88
17/04/25APaulistano69-81
08/04/25HFlamengo79-88
05/04/25HVasco77-79
01/04/25HMinas63-77
17/03/25HBotafogo94-71
14/03/25APato80-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL41%
HomeLLWWW56%
AwayLLLWL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371819
Win %41%56%26%
Points / game76.075.876.2
Allowed / game78.775.981.3
Point differential-2.7-0.1-5.2
Avg total154.7151.8157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%22%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won47% (17)62% (8)33% (9)
Overtime %3%0%5%
Brasilia
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW54%
HomeLLLLW68%
AwayWLLLL39%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371918
Win %54%68%39%
Points / game80.080.579.5
Allowed / game79.778.381.2
Point differential+0.4+2.3-1.7
Avg total159.7158.8160.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%16%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (15)80% (10)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3732586%82.370.4+11.9
2 Flamengo3829976%84.775.2+9.5
3 Franca3728976%85.475.9+9.4
4 Bauru39221756%78.677.5+1.1
5 Pinheiros38211755%76.774.6+2.1
6 Vasco38211755%77.376.6+0.8
7 Brasilia37201754%80.079.7+0.4
8 Corinthians Paulista38201853%82.080.2+1.8
9 Uniao Corinthians38191950%78.780.9-2.1
10 Unifacisa38182047%75.275.4-0.3
11 Sao Jose38182047%78.478.8-0.4
12 Paulistano39172244%76.876.4+0.5
13 Sao Paulo37152241%76.078.7-2.7
14 Pato37132435%81.384.2-2.9
15 Caxias do Sul38122632%73.681.5-7.9
16 Mogi37112630%73.781.3-7.6
17 Cearense34102429%72.178.0-5.9
18 Botafogo34102429%73.182.1-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Sao Paulo141216201678
Brasilia191811141577
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