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SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 24 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 83-80
46-34 37-46
Position#129
Record14-5
FormLLWLW
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game76.8
SMU Mustangs 🏆
USA
vs
Florida State
USA
Position#167
Record8-11
FormLLLLW
Points / game81.4
Allowed / game80.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

SMU Mustangs winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Florida State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SMU MustangsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
W
93-80 OT
93
80
+13
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
77-89
77
89
-12
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
99-82
99
82
+17
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
110-63
110
63
+47
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
W
97-83
97
83
+14
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
70-74
70
74
-4
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
75-82
75
82
-7
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
77-76
77
76
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
91-79
91
79
+12
A21/01
NCAA
1H
2H
41-27
36-50
44-47
33-42
51-47
48-35
51-19
59-44
39-39
58-44
25-34
45-40
35-41
40-41
39-38
38-38
37-40
31-32
45-36
46-43
163.7Avg total
85.7Scored
78.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)87.576.8164.3+10.674%
Season at home (13)91.874.4166.2+17.492%
Season away (6)78.282.2160.3-4.033%
Last 10 (10)85.778.0163.7+7.760%
Last 5 (5)76.276.6152.8-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)72.085.0157.0-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)81.976.2158.1+5.757%
vs Weaker (13)85.272.9158.2+12.377%
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMass
#189
L
95-103
95
103
-8
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
69-97
69
97
-28
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
96-49
96
49
+47
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
87-63
87
63
+24
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
66-79
66
79
-13
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
87-91
87
91
-4
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
69-113
69
113
-44
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
86-94
86
94
-8
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H17/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
65-63
65
63
+2
A21/01
NCAA
1H
2H
47-43
48-60
31-42
38-55
54-17
42-32
43-21
44-42
34-40
32-39
42-42
45-49
31-56
38-57
40-43
46-51
34-31
34-38
38-37
27-26
160.9Avg total
78.8Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)81.480.4161.7+1.042%
Season at home (13)85.979.5165.5+6.454%
Season away (6)71.582.2153.7-10.717%
Last 10 (10)78.882.1160.9-3.330%
Last 5 (5)75.086.0161.0-11.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)71.686.2157.8-14.621%
vs Similar ◀ (9)77.776.4154.1+1.244%
vs Weaker (7)86.665.3151.9+21.371%
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +3.9+3.91st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: -5.5-5.5
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +3.9+3.91st half: +2.2+2.22nd half2nd half: +2.5+2.52nd half: -5.5-5.5
SMU MustangsFlorida State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
SMU MustangsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
W
41-27
41
27
+14
H07/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#83
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H21/12
NCAA
CS Fullerton
#187
W
51-19
51
19
+32
H28/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H03/01
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
25-34
25
34
-9
A08/01
NCAA
Duke
#8
L
35-41
35
41
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H15/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A21/01
NCAA
77.5Avg total
40.7Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.635.975.5+3.857%-
Last 30 at home (19)40.735.175.8+5.674%-
Last 30 away (11)37.837.275.0+0.627%-
Last 10 (10)40.736.877.5+3.950%-
Last 5 (5)36.237.874.0-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)36.544.581.0-8.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)39.536.776.2+2.857%-
vs Weaker (13)40.833.974.7+6.862%-
This opponent (Florida State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UMass
#189
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H13/12
NCAA
Dayton
#65
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A17/12
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
54-17
54
17
+37
H20/12
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H23/12
NCAA
North Carolina
#45
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A31/12
NCAA
Duke
#8
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H03/01
NCAA
NC State
#128
L
31-56
31
56
-25
H10/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A14/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H17/01
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A21/01
NCAA
76.6Avg total
39.4Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.837.173.0-1.350%-
Last 30 at home (19)37.336.073.3+1.358%-
Last 30 away (11)33.439.172.5-5.736%-
Last 10 (10)39.437.276.6+2.250%-
Last 5 (5)37.041.878.8-4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)33.643.176.7-9.429%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)34.833.268.0+1.667%-
vs Weaker (7)41.630.371.9+11.371%-
This opponent (SMU Mustangs) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
SMU Mustangs wins
1
Florida State wins
DateGameScore
08/03/25Florida State v SMU Mustangs76-69
17/12/23Florida State v SMU Mustangs57-68
SMU Mustangslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/01/26AWake Forest91-79
17/01/26HVirginia68-72
15/01/26HVirginia Tech77-76
10/01/26ADuke75-82
08/01/26AClemson70-74
03/01/26HNorth Carolina97-83
28/12/25HCS Fullerton110-63
21/12/25HCentral Arkansas99-82
14/12/25ALSU77-89
07/12/25HTexas A&M93-80 OT
Florida Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/01/26AMiami (FL)65-63
17/01/26HWake Forest68-69
14/01/26ASyracuse86-94
10/01/26HNC State69-113
03/01/26HDuke87-91
31/12/25ANorth Carolina66-79
23/12/25HJacksonville Dolphins87-63
20/12/25HMiss. Valley St.96-49
17/12/25ADayton69-97
13/12/25HUMass95-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

SMU Mustangs
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW74%
HomeWWWWL92%
AwayLLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19136
Win %74%92%33%
Points / game87.591.878.2
Allowed / game76.874.482.2
Point differential+10.6+17.4-4.0
Avg total164.3166.2160.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+58%77%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %11%8%17%
Florida State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW42%
HomeWWLLL54%
AwayLLLLW17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19136
Win %42%54%17%
Points / game81.485.971.5
Allowed / game80.479.582.2
Point differential+1.0+6.4-10.7
Avg total161.7165.5153.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%54%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke1918195%85.765.3+20.5
2 Clemson2117481%77.165.1+12.0
3 Miami (FL)2016480%85.069.3+15.7
4 North Carolina2016480%82.570.0+12.5
5 Virginia2016480%82.369.9+12.4
6 Louisville1914574%87.869.6+18.2
7 SMU Mustangs1914574%87.576.8+10.6
8 California1914574%78.870.5+8.3
9 Stanford1914574%76.572.2+4.3
10 Virginia Tech2115671%81.574.6+6.9
11 NC State2014670%85.371.8+13.4
12 Syracuse2012860%75.769.0+6.7
13 Wake Forest2011955%80.376.5+3.8
14 Georgia Tech2011955%75.073.2+1.7
15 Notre Dame1910953%73.270.4+2.7
16 Boston College1991047%68.468.2+0.3
17 Florida State1981142%81.480.4+1.0
18 Pittsburgh2081240%72.771.2+1.4
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
SMU Mustangs463783
Florida State344680
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