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Troy vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 21:30
Final 78-84
43-34 35-50
Position#68
Record10-5
FormWWWWL
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game65.9
vs
Position#54
Record11-5
FormWWWLL
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game70.8
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Troy v Arkansas State
30 Jan 2027
TROY v ARKA
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
TROY99
ARKA74
10 Mar 2025
TROY94
ARKA81
11 Jan 2025
TROY78
ARKA84
15 Feb 2024
TROY71
ARKA82
02 Mar 2023
TROY63
ARKA59
07 Jan 2023
TROY66
ARKA54
10 Feb 2022
TROY79
ARKA77
25 Jan 2020
TROY62
ARKA78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTSA Roadrunners
#292
W
86-72
86
72
+14
H26/11
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#164
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H29/11
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#155
W
84-74
84
74
+10
H01/12
NCAA
Houston
#9
L
42-62
42
62
-20
A11/12
NCAA
Middle Georgia State
#501
W
87-53
87
53
+34
H14/12
NCAA
La Grange
#640
W
105-60
105
60
+45
H18/12
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
77-57
77
57
+20
H21/12
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
69-61
69
61
+8
A02/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
58-57
58
57
+1
A04/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
L
73-74
73
74
-1
H10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
42-29
44-43
32-43
36-29
41-36
43-38
11-33
31-29
48-20
39-33
55-34
50-26
39-25
38-32
33-30
36-31
19-31
39-26
41-32
32-42
139.1Avg total
74.9Scored
64.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)73.765.9139.6+7.767%
Season at home (8)83.067.0150.0+16.075%
Season away (7)63.064.7127.7-1.757%
Last 10 (10)74.964.2139.1+10.770%
Last 5 (5)76.461.8138.2+14.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)42.062.0104.0-20.00%
vs Similar ◀ (4)59.266.2125.5-7.050%
vs Weaker (24)79.270.3149.5+8.967%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rice
#281
L
67-75
67
75
-8
H01/12
NCAA
Hofstra
#237
L
66-68
66
68
-2
H01/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#221
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H06/12
NCAA
Memphis
#15
W
85-72
85
72
+13
A08/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
W
83-79
83
79
+4
H13/12
NCAA
UAB
#91
W
98-89 OT
98
89
+9
A15/12
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
97-67
97
67
+30
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
78-59
78
59
+19
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
62-76
62
76
-14
A10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
33-34
34-41
29-29
37-39
37-31
29-33
42-29
43-43
35-39
48-40
28-53
56-31
53-22
44-45
32-29
46-30
39-33
23-34
31-41
31-35
148.0Avg total
76.4Scored
71.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)78.270.8148.9+7.469%
Season at home (9)77.966.7144.6+11.278%
Season away (7)78.676.0154.6+2.657%
Last 10 (10)76.471.6148.0+4.860%
Last 5 (5)79.471.6151.0+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)75.677.4153.0-1.957%
vs Similar ◀ (9)82.777.1159.8+5.667%
vs Weaker (12)74.166.1140.2+8.075%
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +4.8+4.81st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +2.0+2.0
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: +4.8+4.81st half: +1.9+1.92nd half2nd half: +5.9+5.92nd half: +2.0+2.0
TroyArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UTSA Roadrunners
#292
W
42-29
42
29
+13
H26/11
NCAA
Merrimack Warriors
#164
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H29/11
NCAA
Eastern Kentucky
#155
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H01/12
NCAA
Houston
#9
L
11-33
11
33
-22
A11/12
NCAA
Middle Georgia State
#501
W
48-20
48
20
+28
H14/12
NCAA
La Grange
#640
W
55-34
55
34
+21
H18/12
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
39-25
39
25
+14
H21/12
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
33-30
33
30
+3
A02/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
19-31
19
31
-12
A04/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H10/01
NCAA
67.4Avg total
36.1Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.931.068.0+5.977%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.730.771.4+10.086%-
Last 30 away (16)33.631.364.9+2.369%-
Last 10 (10)36.131.367.4+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)37.430.467.8+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)11.033.044.0-22.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)25.531.256.8-5.850%-
vs Weaker (24)39.531.470.8+8.183%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Rice
#281
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H01/12
NCAA
Hofstra
#237
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H01/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#221
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H06/12
NCAA
Memphis
#15
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A08/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H13/12
NCAA
UAB
#91
L
28-53
28
53
-25
A15/12
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
53-22
53
22
+31
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A10/01
NCAA
69.9Avg total
35.9Scored
34.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.933.871.8+4.163%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.432.071.4+7.469%-
Last 30 away (14)36.335.972.2+0.457%-
Last 10 (10)35.934.069.9+1.950%-
Last 5 (5)36.635.672.2+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)35.136.771.9-1.643%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)39.038.077.0+1.056%-
vs Weaker (12)37.229.867.0+7.575%-
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Troy wins
4
Arkansas State wins
DateGameScore
23/02/24Arkansas State v Troy79-71
16/02/24Troy v Arkansas State71-82
02/03/23Troy v Arkansas State63-59
17/02/23Arkansas State v Troy62-67
07/01/23Troy v Arkansas State66-54
11/02/22Troy v Arkansas State79-77
25/01/20Troy v Arkansas State62-78
11/01/20Arkansas State v Troy76-68 OT
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/25HTexas State73-74
04/01/25AMarshall58-57
02/01/25AAppalachian State69-61
21/12/24HGeorgia State77-57
18/12/24HLa Grange105-60
14/12/24HMiddle Georgia State87-53
11/12/24AHouston42-62
01/12/24HEastern Kentucky84-74
29/11/24HMerrimack Warriors68-72
26/11/24HUTSA Roadrunners86-72
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/25ASouth Alabama62-76
04/01/25AJames Madison62-67
03/01/25AOld Dominion78-59
21/12/24HCoastal Carolina97-67
15/12/24AUAB98-89 OT
13/12/24HUT Arlington83-79
08/12/24AMemphis85-72
06/12/24HJackson State66-64
01/12/24HHofstra66-68
01/12/24HRice67-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL67%
HomeWWWWL75%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %67%75%57%
Points / game73.783.063.0
Allowed / game65.967.064.7
Point differential+7.7+16.0-1.7
Avg total139.6150.0127.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+53%75%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL69%
HomeLLWWW78%
AwayWWWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %69%78%57%
Points / game78.277.978.6
Allowed / game70.866.776.0
Point differential+7.4+11.2+2.6
Avg total148.9144.6154.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%44%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)75% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %12%11%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 South Alabama1712571%74.561.5+12.9
2 Arkansas State1611569%78.270.8+7.4
3 Troy1510567%73.765.9+7.7
4 Appalachian State169756%70.864.2+6.6
5 Marshall1810856%75.571.6+3.9
6 Texas State179853%76.270.5+5.6
7 James Madison179853%74.470.8+3.6
8 Coastal Carolina178947%68.468.2+0.2
9 Southern Miss178947%73.976.6-2.6
10 Old Dominion178947%69.673.4-3.7
11 Georgia Southern178947%73.679.2-5.6
12 Georgia State1771041%72.578.1-5.5
13 Louisiana Lafayette1641225%65.976.1-10.2
14 Louisiana Monroe1741324%71.773.9-2.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Troy433578
Arkansas State345084
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