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Arkansas State vs Texas State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 25 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 80-65
36-34 44-31
Position#54
Record15-5
FormLWWWW
Points / game78.4
Allowed / game69.3
vs
Position#207
Record12-8
FormWLWWW
Points / game78.2
Allowed / game71.8
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Arkansas State v Texas State
10 Jan 2026
ARKA83
TEXA82
25 Jan 2025
ARKA80
TEXA65
11 Jan 2024
ARKA85
TEXA82
12 Jan 2023
ARKA58
TEXA61
22 Jan 2022
ARKA67
TEXA60
22 Feb 2021
ARKA52
TEXA57
04 Jan 2020
ARKA67
TEXA70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Texas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#277
W
83-79
83
79
+4
H13/12
NCAA
UAB
#91
W
98-89 OT
98
89
+9
A15/12
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
97-67
97
67
+30
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
78-59
78
59
+19
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
62-76
62
76
-14
A10/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
84-78
84
78
+6
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
85-59
85
59
+26
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H24/01
NCAA
1H
2H
35-39
48-40
28-53
56-31
53-22
44-45
32-29
46-30
39-33
23-34
31-41
31-35
34-43
50-35
44-24
39-39
44-19
41-40
30-25
35-30
148.9Avg total
79.7Scored
69.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)78.469.3147.8+9.175%
Season at home (12)77.864.8142.6+13.183%
Season away (8)79.276.2155.5+3.062%
Last 10 (10)79.769.2148.9+10.580%
Last 5 (5)75.866.2142.0+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.576.8145.2-8.250%
vs Similar (9)83.677.7161.2+5.967%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)74.864.7139.5+10.180%
This opponent (Texas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Atlantic
#162
L
80-89
80
89
-9
A14/12
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#201
W
83-61
83
61
+22
H21/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H29/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A03/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
L
61-72
61
72
-11
A04/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
74-73
74
73
+1
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
A11/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
94-80
94
80
+14
H16/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
85-82 OT
85
82
+3
H18/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
89-74
89
74
+15
A23/01
NCAA
1H
2H
40-43
40-46
42-33
41-28
39-32
33-48
25-37
46-40
30-38
31-34
32-41
42-32
30-45
46-31
46-35
48-45
39-39
38-38
38-33
51-41
157.7Avg total
79.7Scored
78.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)78.271.8149.9+6.460%
Season at home (10)81.467.1148.5+14.380%
Season away (10)74.976.4151.3-1.540%
Last 10 (10)79.778.0157.7+1.750%
Last 5 (5)86.080.2166.2+5.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)73.275.0148.2-1.860%
vs Similar (13)70.871.4142.2-0.646%
vs Weaker (12)84.570.2154.7+14.375%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +5.4+5.42nd half: +3.3+3.3
-7-3+0+3+71st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: -1.5-1.52nd half2nd half: +5.4+5.42nd half: +3.3+3.3
Arkansas StateTexas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#277
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H13/12
NCAA
UAB
#91
L
28-53
28
53
-25
A15/12
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
53-22
53
22
+31
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A10/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
44-24
44
24
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
44-19
44
19
+25
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H24/01
NCAA
69.8Avg total
37.0Scored
32.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.232.770.9+5.667%-
Last 30 at home (17)39.729.869.5+9.976%-
Last 30 away (13)36.336.572.8-0.254%-
Last 10 (10)37.032.869.8+4.260%-
Last 5 (5)36.630.467.0+6.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)34.835.570.2-0.850%-
vs Similar (9)38.839.378.1-0.644%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)37.728.366.0+9.380%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Atlantic
#162
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A14/12
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#201
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H21/12
NCAA
UT Arlington
#277
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H29/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
25-37
25
37
-12
A03/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A04/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A11/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H16/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H18/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A23/01
NCAA
73.7Avg total
36.1Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.434.068.4+0.450%-
Last 30 at home (13)38.132.470.5+5.769%-
Last 30 away (17)31.635.366.9-3.735%-
Last 10 (10)36.137.673.7-1.540%-
Last 5 (5)37.038.675.6-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)29.638.267.8-8.620%-
vs Similar (13)32.233.565.8-1.346%-
vs Weaker (12)38.832.871.6+5.967%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Arkansas State wins
6
Texas State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/01/25HAppalachian State65-55
18/01/25HGeorgia State85-59
17/01/25HLouisiana Lafayette83-63
11/01/25ATroy84-78
10/01/25ASouth Alabama62-76
04/01/25AJames Madison62-67
03/01/25AOld Dominion78-59
21/12/24HCoastal Carolina97-67
15/12/24AUAB98-89 OT
13/12/24HUT Arlington83-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/01/25ALouisiana Lafayette89-74
18/01/25HSouthern Miss85-82 OT
16/01/25HGeorgia State94-80
11/01/25ASouthern Miss88-92 OT
10/01/25ATroy74-73
04/01/25AAppalachian State61-72
03/01/25AMarshall71-77
29/12/24HUT Arlington72-80
21/12/24HGeorgia Southern83-61
14/12/24AFlorida Atlantic80-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW75%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWWLLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20128
Win %75%83%62%
Points / game78.477.879.2
Allowed / game69.364.876.2
Point differential+9.1+13.1+3.0
Avg total147.8142.6155.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%58%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)75% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %10%8%12%
Texas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW60%
HomeWWLWW80%
AwayLLWLW40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games201010
Win %60%80%40%
Points / game78.281.474.9
Allowed / game71.867.176.4
Point differential+6.4+14.3-1.5
Avg total149.9148.5151.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%50%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (1)50% (4)
Overtime %10%10%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State2015575%78.469.3+9.1
2 South Alabama1914574%73.961.6+12.3
3 Troy1811761%73.566.4+7.1
4 Texas State2012860%78.271.8+6.4
5 Appalachian State1911858%68.862.4+6.5
6 Marshall2112957%75.871.3+4.5
7 James Madison2011955%72.869.2+3.5
8 Georgia Southern2011955%74.577.8-3.2
9 Southern Miss1981142%73.776.9-3.2
10 Coastal Carolina2081240%68.670.5-1.9
11 Old Dominion2081240%67.572.5-5.0
12 Georgia State2071335%72.579.9-7.3
13 Louisiana Lafayette2061430%66.375.9-9.6
14 Louisiana Monroe2041620%70.273.5-3.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas State364480
Texas State343165
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