PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Texas State faces Incarnate Word on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Texas State the clear favourite with a 96% chance of victory, a reflection of their undefeated 3-0 record, 91.3 points scored per game and only 62.0 points allowed, placing them 25th in the league. Incarnate Word, meanwhile, sits at 0-4 with 60.8 points per game and 79.2 points allowed, ranked 373rd, and has lost every one of its last five outings. Texas State's home form is spotless, 2-0 at home with 101.0 points per game and 60.5 allowed, and they have won four of their last five games, including a 135-66 rout of Howard Payne and a 67-55 win over Texas A&M-CC. Incarnate Word's road record is 0-3, with 63.0 points per game and 83.7 allowed, and they have been defeated in all five recent matches, most recently falling 54-66 to Chicago State. Historically, Texas State has won both meetings, the last being a 75-57 victory in 2021. Pythia projects a 84-64 score, 148.4 total points, and a 1% chance of overtime, with the home team covering the line by a comfortable margin.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 89.8 | 62.8 | 152.5 | +27.0 | 100% |
| Season at home (3) | 95.7 | 62.0 | 157.7 | +33.7 | 100% |
| Season away (1) | 72.0 | 65.0 | 137.0 | +7.0 | 100% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.9 | 68.4 | 149.3 | +12.5 | 80% |
| Last 5 (5) | 87.2 | 66.4 | 153.6 | +20.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (18) | 72.4 | 75.7 | 148.2 | -3.3 | 44% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 80.6 | 63.1 | 143.7 | +17.5 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 60.8 | 79.2 | 140.0 | -18.5 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 54.0 | 66.0 | 120.0 | -12.0 | 0% |
| Season away (3) | 63.0 | 83.7 | 146.7 | -20.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 66.1 | 74.9 | 141.0 | -8.8 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.2 | 78.6 | 140.8 | -16.4 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 67.1 | 77.9 | 145.0 | -10.9 | 14% |
| vs Similar (6) | 70.0 | 75.0 | 145.0 | -5.0 | 17% |
| vs Weaker (10) | 76.1 | 68.3 | 144.4 | +7.8 | 60% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.0 | 33.7 | 68.7 | +1.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.3 | 32.1 | 69.4 | +5.3 | 67% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 31.5 | 36.2 | 67.8 | -4.8 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.9 | 33.0 | 70.9 | +4.9 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.2 | 31.6 | 72.8 | +9.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (18) | 32.3 | 35.6 | 67.9 | -3.3 | 22% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 39.0 | 30.9 | 69.9 | +8.1 | 92% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.9 | 35.2 | 67.1 | -3.3 | 37% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 34.2 | 33.9 | 68.1 | +0.4 | 43% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 29.8 | 36.4 | 66.2 | -6.6 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 28.8 | 37.5 | 66.3 | -8.7 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 25.4 | 42.2 | 67.6 | -16.8 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 29.4 | 37.8 | 67.2 | -8.4 | 21% | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 28.8 | 34.5 | 63.3 | -5.7 | 17% | - |
| vs Weaker (10) | 37.1 | 32.0 | 69.1 | +5.1 | 70% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 10/11/21 | Incarnate Word v Texas State | 57-75 |
| 05/12/20 | Texas State v Incarnate Word | 72-64 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Southern Miss | 85-65 |
| 11/11/26 | A | UTRGV | 72-65 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Howard Payne | 135-66 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Texas A&M-CC | 67-55 |
| 06/03/26 | H | Southern Miss | 77-81 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Appalachian State | 60-57 |
| 21/02/26 | A | Louisiana Lafayette | 54-67 |
| 20/02/26 | A | South Alabama | 90-82 OT |
| 14/02/26 | H | Louisiana Monroe | 95-84 |
| 12/02/26 | H | Troy | 74-62 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | UC Davis | 69-81 |
| 09/11/26 | A | UTEP | 60-79 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Chicago State | 54-66 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Oklahoma State | 60-91 |
| 03/03/26 | H | Stephen F. Austin | 68-76 |
| 28/02/26 | H | Lamar | 72-60 |
| 24/02/26 | A | Northwestern St. | 49-54 |
| 21/02/26 | A | East Texas A&M | 82-73 |
| 17/02/26 | H | New Orleans | 64-78 |
| 14/02/26 | H | Nicholls State | 83-91 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWW | 100% |
| Home | WWW | 100% |
| Away | W | 100% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Win % | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Points / game | 89.8 | 95.7 | 72.0 |
| Allowed / game | 62.8 | 62.0 | 65.0 |
| Point differential | +27.0 | +33.7 | +7.0 |
| Avg total | 152.5 | 157.7 | 137.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 75% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 60.8 | 54.0 | 63.0 |
| Allowed / game | 79.2 | 66.0 | 83.7 |
| Point differential | -18.5 | -12.0 | -20.7 |
| Avg total | 140.0 | 120.0 | 146.7 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas State | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 89.8 | 62.8 | +27.0 |
| 2 |  Old Dominion | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 77.0 | 58.4 | +18.6 |
| 3 |  Appalachian State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 69.0 | 60.2 | +8.8 |
| 4 |  Southern Miss | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.0 | 70.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 |  Arkansas State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.2 | 79.5 | +0.8 |
| 6 |  Coastal Carolina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.5 | 73.5 | -1.0 |
| 7 |  South Alabama | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 74.6 | 76.0 | -1.4 |
| 8 |  Louisiana Lafayette | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 59.0 | 60.3 | -1.3 |
| 9 |  James Madison | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 76.0 | 78.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 |  Georgia State | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 85.8 | 77.2 | +8.5 |
| 11 |  Marshall | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 78.2 | 76.0 | +2.2 |
| 12 |  Georgia Southern | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 77.8 | 82.8 | -5.0 |
| 13 |  Troy | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 66.0 | 78.0 | -12.0 |
| 14 |  Louisiana Monroe | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 75.0 | 87.7 | -12.7 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Houston Christian | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 94.2 | 65.2 | +29.0 |
| 2 |  Stephen F. Austin | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 90.8 | 61.2 | +29.5 |
| 3 |  Lamar | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 109.0 | 67.3 | +41.7 |
| 4 |  McNeese State | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 100.3 | 80.7 | +19.7 |
| 5 |  New Orleans | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 81.7 | 82.3 | -0.7 |
| 6 |  Nicholls State | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 76.8 | 67.8 | +9.0 |
| 7 |  UTRGV | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 72.8 | 67.8 | +5.0 |
| 8 |  Texas A&M-CC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 71.0 | 67.2 | +3.8 |
| 9 |  SE Louisiana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 64.3 | 87.3 | -23.0 |
| 10 |  Northwestern St. | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 68.0 | 79.0 | -11.0 |
| 11 | Incarnate Word | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0% | 60.8 | 79.2 | -18.5 |
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