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Troy vs Southern Miss Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 15 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 91-65
42-26 49-39
Position#84
Record11-6
FormWWWLW
Points / game85.9
Allowed / game76.9
Troy 🏆
USA
vs
Position#174
Record11-7
FormLWWWW
Points / game75.9
Allowed / game72.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Troy v Southern Miss
08 Mar 2026
TROY78
SOUT70
14 Jan 2026
TROY91
SOUT65
27 Jan 2025
TROY70
SOUT61
13 Jan 2024
TROY82
SOUT56
02 Feb 2023
TROY65
SOUT74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Southern Miss winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#156
L
68-75
68
75
-7
H24/11
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
101-47
101
47
+54
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
70-63
70
63
+7
H20/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
100-80
100
80
+20
H31/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H03/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
74-86
74
86
-12
A08/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
90-70
90
70
+20
A10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
36-30
32-45
28-33
46-31
28-27
37-38
60-17
41-30
35-39
51-46
36-32
34-31
45-33
55-47
30-23
29-26
32-45
42-41
53-35
37-35
152.3Avg total
81.1Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)85.976.9162.9+9.065%
Season at home (7)86.966.1153.0+20.771%
Season away (10)85.384.5169.8+0.860%
Last 10 (10)81.171.2152.3+9.970%
Last 5 (5)78.669.6148.2+9.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (14)77.176.6153.7+0.464%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)81.168.6149.7+12.567%
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#38
L
64-88
64
88
-24
A06/12
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
68-60
68
60
+8
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
67-71
67
71
-4
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H19/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
86-93
86
93
-7
H20/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
62-90
62
90
-28
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
87-73
87
73
+14
A01/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
74-67
74
67
+7
A03/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
80-70 OT
80
70
+10
H09/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
70-60
70
60
+10
H10/01
NCAA
1H
2H
34-34
30-54
29-31
39-29
29-31
38-40
24-17
38-37
32-39
54-54
30-41
32-49
45-38
42-35
33-27
41-40
29-28
36-37
31-28
39-32
144.6Avg total
72.0Scored
72.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)75.972.4148.3+3.661%
Season at home (9)78.166.2144.3+11.989%
Season away (9)73.878.6152.3-4.833%
Last 10 (10)72.072.6144.6-0.660%
Last 5 (5)74.672.0146.6+2.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)69.979.8149.7-9.911%
vs Similar (14)71.574.9146.4-3.436%
vs Weaker (7)80.064.7144.7+15.3100%
This opponent (Troy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +6.9+6.91st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: -1.8-1.8
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: +6.9+6.91st half: +0.2+0.22nd half2nd half: +3.4+3.42nd half: -1.8-1.8
TroySouthern Miss
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toledo
#156
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H24/11
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
60-17
60
17
+43
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H20/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H31/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H03/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A08/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
53-35
53
35
+18
A10/01
NCAA
69.7Avg total
38.3Scored
31.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.930.767.6+6.353%-
Last 30 at home (12)40.827.268.1+13.683%-
Last 30 away (18)34.332.967.3+1.433%-
Last 10 (10)38.331.469.7+6.970%-
Last 5 (5)39.233.672.8+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (14)34.433.467.9+1.043%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)37.928.366.3+9.660%-
This opponent (Southern Miss) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern MissLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami (FL)
#38
D
34-34
34
34
+0
A06/12
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H09/12
NCAA
Ole Miss
#259
L
29-31
29
31
-2
A13/12
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
24-17
24
17
+7
H19/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H20/12
NCAA
LSU
#230
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A30/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A01/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
33-27
33
27
+6
A03/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
29-28
29
28
+1
H09/01
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
31-28
31
28
+3
H10/01
NCAA
63.0Avg total
31.6Scored
31.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.633.867.4-0.247%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.331.664.9+1.850%-
Last 30 away (14)33.936.470.2-2.543%-
Last 10 (10)31.631.463.0+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)33.632.466.0+1.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)34.636.871.3-2.233%-
vs Similar (14)31.333.164.4-1.936%-
vs Weaker (7)36.931.368.1+5.686%-
This opponent (Troy) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Troy wins
3
Southern Miss wins
DateGameScore
01/03/25Southern Miss v Troy58-70
27/01/25Troy v Southern Miss70-61
20/01/24Southern Miss v Troy64-63
13/01/24Troy v Southern Miss82-56
03/02/23Troy v Southern Miss65-74
30/12/22Southern Miss v Troy64-60
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26ALouisiana Lafayette90-70
08/01/26AArkansas State74-86
03/01/26HSouth Alabama59-49
31/12/25HTexas State100-80
20/12/25HMarshall70-63
14/12/25AUAB86-85
06/12/25HLa Grange101-47
02/12/25HWest Georgia89-93 OT
26/11/25ASt. Francis (PA)74-64
24/11/25HToledo68-75
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/01/26HLouisiana Monroe70-60
09/01/26HTexas State80-70 OT
03/01/26ALouisiana Lafayette74-67
01/01/26ALouisiana Monroe87-73
30/12/25ALSU62-90
20/12/25HArkansas State86-93
19/12/25HLouisiana Lafayette62-54
13/12/25AOle Miss67-71
09/12/25HGrambling St.68-60
06/12/25AMiami (FL)64-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW65%
HomeLWWWW71%
AwayLWWLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17710
Win %65%71%60%
Points / game85.986.985.3
Allowed / game76.966.184.5
Point differential+9.0+20.7+0.8
Avg total162.9153.0169.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%57%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)0% (1)75% (4)
Overtime %24%14%30%
Southern Miss
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW61%
HomeWWLWW89%
AwayLLLWW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %61%89%33%
Points / game75.978.173.8
Allowed / game72.466.278.6
Point differential+3.6+11.9-4.8
Avg total148.3144.3152.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%56%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)-0% (3)
Overtime %11%11%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State1712571%83.378.0+5.3
2 Georgia Southern1812667%83.779.8+3.9
3 Troy1711665%85.976.9+9.0
4 Marshall1711665%79.475.2+4.2
5 Southern Miss1811761%75.972.4+3.6
6 South Alabama1710759%73.368.1+5.2
7 Appalachian State1810856%72.466.7+5.7
8 James Madison179853%74.876.5-1.7
9 Texas State189950%74.972.2+2.7
10 Coastal Carolina189950%72.471.8+0.6
11 Georgia State1861233%70.374.8-4.6
12 Old Dominion1851328%73.477.0-3.6
13 Louisiana Lafayette1841422%60.670.3-9.7
14 Louisiana Monroe1831517%73.782.6-8.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Troy424991
Southern Miss263965
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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