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Arkansas State vs Troy Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 08 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 86-74
45-32 41-42
Position#98
Record10-5
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game78.0
Arkansas State 🏆
USA
vs
Troy
USA
Position#84
Record10-5
FormWWWWW
Points / game86.5
Allowed / game76.8
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Arkansas State v Troy
07 Jan 2026
ARKA86
TROY74
15 Feb 2025
ARKA70
TROY71
22 Feb 2024
ARKA79
TROY71
16 Feb 2023
ARKA62
TROY67
11 Jan 2020
ARKA76
TROY68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Troy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
69-100
69
100
-31
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
74-63
74
63
+11
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
85-80 OT
85
80
+5
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
76-77
76
77
-1
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
89-70
89
70
+19
A18/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
93-86
93
86
+7
A20/12
NCAA
Arkansas Tech
#580
W
107-63
107
63
+44
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
30-50
39-50
38-32
36-31
39-35
31-35
39-21
44-42
46-39
44-39
35-33
41-44
41-32
48-38
39-32
54-54
51-25
56-38
34-39
40-39
159.8Avg total
84.0Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)83.178.0161.1+5.167%
Season at home (6)86.369.0155.3+17.383%
Season away (9)81.084.0165.0-3.056%
Last 10 (10)84.075.8159.8+8.270%
Last 5 (5)87.874.8162.6+13.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.085.0159.0-11.033%
vs Similar ◀ (9)74.674.2148.8+0.344%
vs Weaker (15)83.974.3158.3+9.673%
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego State
#70
W
108-107 OT
108
107
+1
A19/11
NCAA
USC
#153
L
106-107 OT
106
107
-1
A21/11
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
68-75
68
75
-7
H24/11
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
101-47
101
47
+54
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
70-63
70
63
+7
H20/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
100-80
100
80
+20
H31/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H03/01
NCAA
1H
2H
38-38
51-51
29-29
39-39
36-30
32-45
28-33
46-31
28-27
37-38
60-17
41-30
35-39
51-46
36-32
34-31
45-33
55-47
30-23
29-26
163.1Avg total
86.1Scored
77.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)86.576.8163.3+9.767%
Season at home (7)86.966.1153.0+20.771%
Season away (8)86.186.1172.2+0.062%
Last 10 (10)86.177.0163.1+9.170%
Last 5 (5)83.264.8148.0+18.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)77.375.9153.2+1.469%
vs Weaker (16)79.968.4148.2+11.569%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.4+5.41st half: +6.4+6.42nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: +3.1+3.1
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +5.4+5.41st half: +6.4+6.42nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: +3.1+3.1
Arkansas StateTroy
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
30-50
30
50
-20
A22/11
NCAA
Jacksonville State
#228
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A18/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A20/12
NCAA
Arkansas Tech
#580
W
51-25
51
25
+26
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H03/01
NCAA
73.0Avg total
39.2Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.034.773.7+4.370%-
Last 30 at home (12)41.231.172.3+10.283%-
Last 30 away (18)37.437.174.6+0.361%-
Last 10 (10)39.233.873.0+5.480%-
Last 5 (5)40.032.272.2+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.342.779.0-6.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)35.833.469.2+2.378%-
vs Weaker (15)39.534.874.3+4.767%-
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Diego State
#70
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A19/11
NCAA
USC
#153
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A21/11
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H24/11
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
60-17
60
17
+43
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H20/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H31/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H03/01
NCAA
66.6Avg total
36.5Scored
30.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.830.267.0+6.657%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.728.168.8+12.686%-
Last 30 away (16)33.332.165.4+1.231%-
Last 10 (10)36.530.166.6+6.460%-
Last 5 (5)41.228.870.0+12.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)34.632.567.2+2.146%-
vs Weaker (16)37.228.565.8+8.862%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Arkansas State wins
6
Troy wins
DateGameScore
10/03/25Troy v Arkansas State94-81
16/02/25Arkansas State v Troy70-71
11/01/25Troy v Arkansas State78-84
23/02/24Arkansas State v Troy79-71
16/02/24Troy v Arkansas State71-82
02/03/23Troy v Arkansas State63-59
17/02/23Arkansas State v Troy62-67
07/01/23Troy v Arkansas State66-54
11/02/22Troy v Arkansas State79-77
25/01/20Troy v Arkansas State62-78
Arkansas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26HJames Madison74-78
31/12/25HArkansas Tech107-63
20/12/25ASouthern Miss93-86
18/12/25ATexas State89-70
13/12/25ARice76-77
07/12/25AUALR90-78
03/12/25HUT Arlington83-63
28/11/25HNorth Dakota St85-80 OT
25/11/25HJacksonville State74-63
22/11/25ASMU Mustangs69-100
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/26HSouth Alabama59-49
31/12/25HTexas State100-80
20/12/25HMarshall70-63
14/12/25AUAB86-85
06/12/25HLa Grange101-47
02/12/25HWest Georgia89-93 OT
26/11/25ASt. Francis (PA)74-64
24/11/25HToledo68-75
21/11/25AUSC106-107 OT
19/11/25ASan Diego State108-107 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL67%
HomeWWWWL83%
AwayLWLWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1569
Win %67%83%56%
Points / game83.186.381.0
Allowed / game78.069.084.0
Point differential+5.1+17.3-3.0
Avg total161.1155.3165.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%67%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)50% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %7%17%0%
Troy
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW67%
HomeLWWWW71%
AwayLWLWW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %67%71%62%
Points / game86.586.986.1
Allowed / game76.866.186.1
Point differential+9.7+20.7+0.0
Avg total163.3153.0172.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%57%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)0% (1)75% (4)
Overtime %27%14%38%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Georgia Southern1712571%84.479.4+5.1
2 Marshall1611569%79.874.9+4.9
3 Troy1510567%86.576.8+9.7
4 Arkansas State1510567%83.178.0+5.1
5 Appalachian State169756%74.467.8+6.6
6 South Alabama169756%72.467.9+4.5
7 Texas State169756%74.871.0+3.8
8 Southern Miss169756%76.173.3+2.8
9 Coastal Carolina168850%73.272.6+0.6
10 James Madison168850%75.177.0-1.9
11 Georgia State1651131%70.976.4-5.5
12 Old Dominion1641225%73.978.1-4.2
13 Louisiana Monroe1631319%74.283.2-9.0
14 Louisiana Lafayette1631319%58.568.6-10.1
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas State454186
Troy324274
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