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Turkey vs Poland Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 09 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 91-77
19-19 27-13 19-18 26-27
Position#2
Record6-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game90.7
Allowed / game73.0
Turkey 🏆
vs
Position#9
Record4-2
FormWWLLW
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game76.5
EuropeEuroBasketEuroBasket - Quarter-finals· Xiaomi Arena
Other2025
Meetings · Turkey v Poland
09 Sep 2025
TURK91
POLA77
21 Aug 2015
TURK73
POLA83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Turkey winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Poland winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TurkeyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTurkey
Date
Competition
Italy
#9
L
67-80
67
80
-13
56avg 81
H20/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
71-83
71
83
-12
66avg 81
A23/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#3
L
71-73
71
73
-2
64avg 81
A15/08
DBB Supercup
Czech Republic
#4
W
79-65
79
65
+14
70avg 81
H16/08
DBB Supercup
Latvia
#11
W
93-73
93
73
+20
97avg 81
A27/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
92-78
92
78
+14
95avg 81
H29/08
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
95-54
95
54
+41
101avg 81
H30/08
EuroBasket
Estonia
#18
W
84-64
84
64
+20
83avg 81
A01/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
W
95-90
95
90
+5
99avg 81
H03/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
W
85-79
85
79
+6
75avg 81
H06/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-17
19-31
19-12
17-20
16-26
22-20
16-23
17-14
25-17
10-11
16-21
20-24
23-13
18-16
19-12
19-24
24-21
23-18
25-16
21-18
21-27
24-10
27-25
20-16
22-13
29-14
22-10
22-17
25-13
21-14
19-22
19-15
19-18
27-31
28-24
21-17
20-23
17-19
26-13
22-24
157.1Avg total
83.2Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)90.773.0163.7+17.7100%
Season at home (4)91.875.2167.0+16.5100%
Season away (2)88.568.5157.0+20.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.273.9157.1+9.370%
Last 5 (5)90.273.0163.2+17.2100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)75.181.5156.6-6.412%
vs Similar (8)76.470.9147.2+5.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)87.173.6160.8+13.586%
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPoland
Date
Competition
Estonia
#10
L
78-82
78
82
-4
72avg 72
H21/11
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
W
88-86
88
86
+2
79avg 72
A24/11
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
48-82
48
82
-34
33avg 72
H21/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
74-88
74
88
-14
67avg 72
A24/02
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
W
105-95
105
95
+10
98avg 72
A28/08
EuroBasket
Israel
#12
W
66-64
66
64
+2
60avg 72
H30/08
EuroBasket
Iceland
#22
W
84-75
84
75
+9
82avg 72
H31/08
EuroBasket
France
#5
L
76-83
76
83
-7
76avg 72
A02/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#16
L
69-70
69
70
-1
64avg 72
H04/09
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
W
80-72
80
72
+8
70avg 72
H07/09
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-19
22-19
13-19
25-25
22-25
18-17
22-21
26-23
18-15
14-22
10-25
6-20
19-26
20-19
16-22
19-21
29-25
18-21
33-23
25-26
19-14
18-12
11-25
18-13
19-16
22-16
20-19
23-24
24-27
20-14
11-19
21-23
17-16
16-23
25-19
11-12
14-23
26-21
22-17
18-11
156.5Avg total
76.8Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)80.076.5156.5+3.567%
Season at home (4)74.870.2145.0+4.575%
Season away (2)90.589.0179.5+1.550%
Last 10 (10)76.879.7156.5-2.950%
Last 5 (5)75.072.8147.8+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)74.985.4160.3-10.431%
vs Similar (10)83.675.0158.6+8.690%
vs Weaker (4)74.570.5145.0+4.075%
This opponent (Turkey) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: -0.7-0.7Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -0.6-0.6
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.9+1.9Q1: -0.7-0.7Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: -2.6-2.6Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -0.6-0.6
TurkeyPoland
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TurkeyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Italy
#9
L
31-48
31
48
-17
H20/02
EuroBasket
Iceland
#25
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A23/02
EuroBasket
Germany
#3
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A15/08
DBB Supercup
Czech Republic
#4
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H16/08
DBB Supercup
Latvia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
A27/08
EuroBasket
Czech Republic
#23
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H29/08
EuroBasket
Portugal
#17
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H30/08
EuroBasket
Estonia
#18
W
46-27
46
27
+19
A01/09
EuroBasket
Serbia
#6
L
46-49
46
49
-3
H03/09
EuroBasket
Sweden
#21
L
37-42
37
42
-5
H06/09
EuroBasket
78.9Avg total
41.7Scored
37.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.738.077.7+1.747%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.837.876.6+0.941%-
Last 30 away (13)40.938.379.2+2.654%-
Last 10 (10)41.737.278.9+4.560%-
Last 5 (5)45.036.481.4+8.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)37.044.481.4-7.412%-
vs Similar (8)37.835.573.2+2.250%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)42.435.978.2+6.564%-
This opponent (Poland) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PolandLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Estonia
#10
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H21/11
EuroBasket
Estonia
#10
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A24/11
EuroBasket
Lithuania
#4
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H21/02
EuroBasket
North Macedonia
#15
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A24/02
EuroBasket
Slovenia
#8
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A28/08
EuroBasket
Israel
#12
W
37-26
37
26
+11
H30/08
EuroBasket
Iceland
#22
W
41-32
41
32
+9
H31/08
EuroBasket
France
#5
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A02/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#16
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H04/09
EuroBasket
Bosnia & Herzegovina
#13
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H07/09
EuroBasket
78.3Avg total
39.3Scored
39.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.438.676.0-1.237%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.636.774.3+0.947%-
Last 30 away (15)37.240.677.8-3.427%-
Last 10 (10)39.339.078.3+0.350%-
Last 5 (5)39.036.475.4+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)36.138.974.9-2.831%-
vs Similar (10)40.238.478.6+1.850%-
vs Weaker (4)35.838.274.0-2.525%-
This opponent (Turkey) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Turkeytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Turkey: 82.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.319.7
57.4%
52.4%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.69.0
35.2%
33.4%27.0
🏀 Free throws20.616.2
78.6%
73.1%16.2
They take 59.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Polandtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Poland: 76.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀26%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.4 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.1 pts a game · 26% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
46%
36%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.716.2
51.1%
52.4%32.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.27.9
31.3%
33.4%23.7
🏀 Free throws26.120.1
77.0%
73.1%20.1
They take 56.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Turkey
WWWWWWWLLL
Poland
WLLWWWLLWL
#2
League position
#9
+13.7
Net rating
-3.8
116.5
Offensive rating
106.4
102.8
Defensive rating
110.2
55.4%
Effective FG%
49.3%
50.2%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
17.1%
Turnover %
19.2%
33.4%
Off. rebound %
30.5%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.46
35.2%
3-point %
31.3%
65.5%
Assist %
62.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence116.5 · 106.4Defence102.8 · 110.2Shooting55.4% · 49.3%3-point %35.2% · 31.3%Ball care17.1% · 19.2%Off. rebounds33.4% · 30.5%Free throws0.34 · 0.46Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Turkey   ■ Poland
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Turkey wins
1
Poland wins
DateGameScore
21/08/15Turkey v Poland73-83
Turkeylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/09/25HSweden85-79
03/09/25HSerbia95-90
01/09/25AEstonia84-64
30/08/25HPortugal95-54
29/08/25HCzech Republic92-78
27/08/25ALatvia93-73
16/08/25HCzech Republic79-65
15/08/25AGermany71-73
23/02/25AIceland71-83
20/02/25HItaly67-80
Polandlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/09/25HBosnia & Herzegovina80-72
04/09/25HBelgium69-70
02/09/25AFrance76-83
31/08/25HIceland84-75
30/08/25HIsrael66-64
28/08/25ASlovenia105-95
24/02/25ANorth Macedonia74-88
21/02/25HLithuania48-82
24/11/24AEstonia88-86
21/11/24HEstonia78-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Turkey
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game90.791.888.5
Allowed / game73.075.268.5
Point differential+17.7+16.5+20.0
Avg total163.7167.0157.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Poland
EuroBasket 2025
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW67%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %67%75%50%
Points / game80.074.890.5
Allowed / game76.570.289.0
Point differential+3.5+4.5+1.5
Avg total156.5145.0179.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Germany660100%102.370.5+31.8
2 Turkey660100%90.773.0+17.7
3 Greece65183%86.072.2+13.8
4 Lithuania65183%86.578.7+7.8
5 France64267%88.578.5+10.0
6 Serbia64267%86.776.7+10.0
7 Italy64267%78.869.5+9.3
8 Finland64267%86.382.0+4.3
9 Slovenia64267%92.288.2+4.0
10 Poland64267%80.076.5+3.5
11 Latvia63350%81.878.7+3.2
12 Israel63350%82.780.8+1.8
13 Bosnia & Herzegovina63350%78.880.2-1.3
14 Georgia63350%74.576.0-1.5
15 Spain52340%79.470.8+8.6
16 Belgium52340%72.680.6-8.0
17 Portugal62433%62.275.5-13.3
18 Estonia51420%70.479.4-9.0
19 Montenegro51420%75.691.0-15.4
20 Great Britain51420%70.896.8-26.0
21 Sweden61517%80.383.8-3.5
22 Iceland5050%72.687.8-15.2
23 Czech Republic5050%67.686.8-19.2
24 Cyprus5050%59.092.0-33.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Turkey1927192691
Poland1913182777
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