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Valparaiso vs Illinois State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 02 Jan 2022
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 81-76 (OT)
39-31 31-39 11-6
Position#242
Record7-6
FormWWLWW
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game66.5
vs
Position#269
Record8-6
FormWWWWL
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game77.7
USANCAA
Other2021-22
Meetings · Valparaiso v Illinois State
07 Jan 2026
VALP77
ILLI71
03 Mar 2024
VALP75
ILLI72
11 Feb 2023
VALP81
ILLI76
02 Jan 2022
VALP81
ILLI76
01 Feb 2020
VALP80
ILLI70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville State
#73
W
78-70
78
70
+8
A22/11
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#160
L
61-64
61
64
-3
H24/11
NCAA
Tulane
#213
W
68-64
68
64
+4
A24/11
NCAA
Trinity (IL)
#533
W
106-69
106
69
+37
H28/11
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
66-73
66
73
-7
A03/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#335
W
71-60
71
60
+11
A05/12
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#565
W
101-58
101
58
+43
H08/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#169
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H11/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#309
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H21/12
NCAA
William & Mary
#357
W
88-66
88
66
+22
H22/12
NCAA
1H
2H
28-32
50-38
30-26
31-38
30-33
38-31
47-26
59-43
32-40
34-33
32-30
39-30
43-21
58-37
27-30
40-38
26-28
41-27
50-36
38-30
142.0Avg total
77.3Scored
64.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)74.266.5140.6+7.754%
Season at home (8)77.665.4143.0+12.250%
Season away (5)68.668.2136.8+0.460%
Last 10 (10)77.364.7142.0+12.670%
Last 5 (5)78.861.4140.2+17.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)64.269.9134.1-5.727%
vs Similar ◀ (14)62.965.2128.1-2.443%
vs Weaker (4)83.062.5145.5+20.5100%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Louis Billikens
#75
L
76-82
76
82
-6
A24/11
NCAA
Buffalo
#109
L
90-106
90
106
-16
H24/11
NCAA
Purdue Northwest
#382
W
81-71
81
71
+10
H28/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
W
79-74 OT
79
74
+5
H02/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#286
L
55-61
55
61
-6
H04/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#345
W
81-71
81
71
+10
A11/12
NCAA
Quincy Hawks
#406
W
81-63
81
63
+18
H15/12
NCAA
Ball State
#237
W
85-64
85
64
+21
H18/12
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#312
W
81-64
81
64
+17
H21/12
NCAA
Wisconsin
#38
L
85-89
85
89
-4
A30/12
NCAA
1H
2H
33-34
43-48
34-49
56-57
39-32
42-39
32-34
32-30
30-32
25-29
36-32
45-39
46-22
35-41
37-29
48-35
39-28
42-36
36-46
49-43
153.9Avg total
79.4Scored
74.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)80.777.7158.4+3.057%
Season at home (10)79.074.3153.3+4.770%
Season away (4)85.086.2171.2-1.225%
Last 10 (10)79.474.5153.9+4.960%
Last 5 (5)82.670.2152.8+12.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)74.579.5153.9-5.027%
vs Similar ◀ (13)67.168.1135.2-1.031%
vs Weaker (4)91.284.5175.8+6.875%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.3+4.31st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +8.3+8.32nd half: +2.0+2.0
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: +4.3+4.31st half: +2.4+2.42nd half2nd half: +8.3+8.32nd half: +2.0+2.0
ValparaisoIllinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville State
#73
L
28-32
28
32
-4
A22/11
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#160
W
30-26
30
26
+4
H24/11
NCAA
Tulane
#213
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A24/11
NCAA
Trinity (IL)
#533
W
47-26
47
26
+21
H28/11
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A03/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#335
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A05/12
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#565
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H08/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#169
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H11/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#309
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H21/12
NCAA
William & Mary
#357
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H22/12
NCAA
64.7Avg total
34.5Scored
30.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.631.162.7+0.543%-
Last 30 at home (16)32.530.462.9+2.144%-
Last 30 away (14)30.531.962.4-1.443%-
Last 10 (10)34.530.264.7+4.350%-
Last 5 (5)35.629.064.6+6.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)29.032.361.3-3.336%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)30.731.261.9-0.536%-
vs Weaker (4)38.830.068.8+8.875%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Louis Billikens
#75
L
33-34
33
34
-1
A24/11
NCAA
Buffalo
#109
L
34-49
34
49
-15
H24/11
NCAA
Purdue Northwest
#382
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H28/11
NCAA
Missouri State
#49
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H02/12
NCAA
Jackson State
#286
L
30-32
30
32
-2
H04/12
NCAA
Chicago State
#345
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A11/12
NCAA
Quincy Hawks
#406
W
46-22
46
22
+24
H15/12
NCAA
Ball State
#237
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H18/12
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#312
W
39-28
39
28
+11
H21/12
NCAA
Wisconsin
#38
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A30/12
NCAA
70.0Avg total
36.2Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.734.367.0-1.733%-
Last 30 at home (19)32.434.666.9-2.226%-
Last 30 away (11)33.233.967.1-0.745%-
Last 10 (10)36.233.870.0+2.450%-
Last 5 (5)38.831.470.2+7.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)31.938.470.3-6.59%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)29.732.362.0-2.631%-
vs Weaker (4)39.533.573.0+6.075%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Valparaiso wins
0
Illinois State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/12/21HWilliam & Mary88-66
21/12/21HEastern Michigan67-55
11/12/21HCharlotte67-68
08/12/21HEWU Phantoms101-58
05/12/21AWestern Michigan71-60
03/12/21ADrake66-73
28/11/21HTrinity (IL)106-69
24/11/21ATulane68-64
24/11/21HCoastal Carolina61-64
22/11/21AJacksonville State78-70
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/21AWisconsin85-89
21/12/21HUTSA Roadrunners81-64
18/12/21HBall State85-64
15/12/21HQuincy Hawks81-63
11/12/21AChicago State81-71
04/12/21HJackson State55-61
02/12/21HMissouri State79-74 OT
28/11/21HPurdue Northwest81-71
24/11/21HBuffalo90-106
24/11/21ASt. Louis Billikens76-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW54%
HomeWWLWW50%
AwayLWWLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %54%50%60%
Points / game74.277.668.6
Allowed / game66.565.468.2
Point differential+7.7+12.2+0.4
Avg total140.6143.0136.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (3)100% (1)
Overtime %8%12%0%
Illinois State
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL57%
HomeWLWWW70%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14104
Win %57%70%25%
Points / game80.779.085.0
Allowed / game77.774.386.2
Point differential+3.0+4.7-1.2
Avg total158.4153.3171.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%40%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %21%20%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State1311285%85.466.8+18.6
2 Belmont1310377%80.571.8+8.8
3 Drake1410471%76.964.6+12.4
4 Southern Illinois138562%65.159.3+5.8
5 Indiana State148657%75.970.4+5.5
6 Illinois State148657%80.777.7+3.0
7 Valparaiso137654%74.266.5+7.7
8 Bradley147750%71.967.0+4.9
9 Northern Iowa114736%71.468.9+2.5
10 Illinois (Chi.)114736%67.769.1-1.4
11 Evansville124833%61.865.8-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HOTFinal
Valparaiso39311181
Illinois State3139676
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