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Valparaiso vs Illinois State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 12 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 81-76
42-38 39-38
Position#306
Record10-16
FormLWLLL
Points / game69.2
Allowed / game73.4
vs
Position#303
Record10-16
FormLWWLL
Points / game66.4
Allowed / game69.5
USANCAA
Other2022-23
Meetings · Valparaiso v Illinois State
07 Jan 2026
VALP77
ILLI71
03 Mar 2024
VALP75
ILLI72
11 Feb 2023
VALP81
ILLI76
02 Jan 2022
VALP81
ILLI76
01 Feb 2020
VALP80
ILLI70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#45
L
66-88
66
88
-22
A07/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
59-74
59
74
-15
H11/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
76-69
76
69
+7
A14/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
76-66
76
66
+10
H18/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
71-51
71
51
+20
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
66-77
66
77
-11
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H29/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
67-76 OT
67
76
-9
A02/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
L
82-85 OT
82
85
-3
H05/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
62-84
62
84
-22
A09/02
NCAA
1H
2H
24-49
42-39
30-38
29-36
34-28
42-41
36-33
40-33
33-24
38-27
28-45
38-32
43-28
38-41
35-28
30-37
35-31
31-35
39-46
23-38
144.5Avg total
70.6Scored
73.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)69.273.4142.5-4.238%
Season at home (14)72.169.3141.4+2.857%
Season away (12)65.878.2143.9-12.417%
Last 10 (10)70.673.9144.5-3.340%
Last 5 (5)71.678.2149.8-6.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)63.275.6138.8-12.56%
vs Similar ◀ (9)72.171.2143.3+0.967%
vs Weaker (4)83.564.2147.8+19.2100%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#365
W
69-61
69
61
+8
A07/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
76-66 OT
76
66
+10
H12/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
L
57-69
57
69
-12
A15/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
63-65
63
65
-2
A19/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
L
51-71
51
71
-20
H22/01
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
75-79 OT
75
79
-4
A26/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
W
72-66
72
66
+6
H29/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
68-62 OT
68
62
+6
H02/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
75-90
75
90
-15
A04/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
61-79
61
79
-18
H09/02
NCAA
1H
2H
34-31
35-30
30-34
31-27
35-32
22-37
30-33
33-32
24-33
27-38
40-36
29-33
36-33
36-33
33-22
21-32
33-44
42-46
21-41
40-38
137.5Avg total
66.7Scored
70.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)66.469.5136.0-3.138%
Season at home (13)69.869.8139.6-0.154%
Season away (13)63.169.2132.3-6.223%
Last 10 (10)66.770.8137.5-4.140%
Last 5 (5)70.275.2145.4-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)69.173.6142.6-4.529%
vs Similar ◀ (11)61.463.8125.2-2.545%
vs Weaker (2)78.071.0149.0+7.0100%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -1.3-1.31st half: -2.3-2.32nd half2nd half: -0.8-0.82nd half: -3.0-3.0
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: -1.3-1.31st half: -2.3-2.32nd half2nd half: -0.8-0.82nd half: -3.0-3.0
ValparaisoIllinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bradley
#45
L
24-49
24
49
-25
A07/01
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
30-38
30
38
-8
H11/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
34-28
34
28
+6
A14/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H18/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#303
W
33-24
33
24
+9
A22/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
28-45
28
45
-17
A26/01
NCAA
Evansville
#365
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H29/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
W
35-28
35
28
+7
A02/02
NCAA
Drake
#24
W
35-31
35
31
+4
H05/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#84
L
39-46
39
46
-7
A09/02
NCAA
68.7Avg total
33.7Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.835.166.9-3.447%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.231.466.6+3.962%-
Last 30 away (14)27.839.467.2-11.629%-
Last 10 (10)33.735.068.7-1.360%-
Last 5 (5)36.035.671.6+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)28.437.465.8-8.918%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)33.333.266.6+0.178%-
vs Weaker (4)42.530.072.5+12.5100%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#365
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A07/01
NCAA
Missouri State
#177
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H12/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A15/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#248
L
30-33
30
33
-3
A19/01
NCAA
Valparaiso
#306
L
24-33
24
33
-9
H22/01
NCAA
Bradley
#45
W
40-36
40
36
+4
A26/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#61
W
36-33
36
33
+3
H29/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#289
W
33-22
33
22
+11
H02/02
NCAA
Belmont
#79
L
33-44
33
44
-11
A04/02
NCAA
Bradley
#45
L
21-41
21
41
-20
H09/02
NCAA
65.5Avg total
31.6Scored
33.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.434.364.6-3.933%-
Last 30 at home (15)31.533.364.7-1.840%-
Last 30 away (15)29.335.364.5-6.027%-
Last 10 (10)31.633.965.5-2.350%-
Last 5 (5)32.635.267.8-2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)31.936.468.3-4.424%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)26.631.357.9-4.636%-
vs Weaker (2)37.533.070.5+4.5100%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Valparaiso wins
1
Illinois State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/23AIndiana State62-84
05/02/23HDrake82-85 OT
02/02/23AMissouri State67-76 OT
29/01/23HEvansville81-69
26/01/23ANorthern Iowa66-77
22/01/23AIllinois State71-51
18/01/23HIllinois (Chi.)76-66
14/01/23AEvansville76-69
11/01/23HBelmont59-74
07/01/23ABradley66-88
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/23HBradley61-79
04/02/23ABelmont75-90
02/02/23HIllinois (Chi.)68-62 OT
29/01/23HSouthern Illinois72-66
26/01/23ABradley75-79 OT
22/01/23HValparaiso51-71
19/01/23ANorthern Iowa63-65
15/01/23ASouthern Illinois57-69
12/01/23HMissouri State76-66 OT
07/01/23AEvansville69-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL38%
HomeLLWWL57%
AwayWWLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %38%57%17%
Points / game69.272.165.8
Allowed / game73.469.378.2
Point differential-4.2+2.8-12.4
Avg total142.5141.4143.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%36%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)60% (5)0% (1)
Overtime %15%21%8%
Illinois State
NCAA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL38%
HomeWLWWL54%
AwayWLLLL23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261313
Win %38%54%23%
Points / game66.469.863.1
Allowed / game69.569.869.2
Point differential-3.1-0.1-6.2
Avg total136.0139.6132.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%23%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)0% (2)33% (6)
Overtime %15%15%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake2721678%75.965.0+11.0
2 Bradley2719870%72.461.9+10.4
3 Southern Illinois2719870%66.561.9+4.6
4 Indiana State2718967%78.968.8+10.1
5 Belmont2718967%75.370.7+4.6
6 Murray State26131350%69.972.6-2.7
7 Northern Iowa26121446%70.168.7+1.3
8 Illinois State26101638%66.469.5-3.1
9 Valparaiso26101638%69.273.4-4.2
10 Illinois (Chi.)27101737%67.171.2-4.1
11 Evansville2652119%62.774.9-12.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso423981
Illinois State383876
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