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Valparaiso vs Illinois State Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 03 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 75-72
44-31 31-41
Position#355
Record6-24
FormLLLLL
Points / game67.6
Allowed / game75.3
vs
Position#240
Record15-15
FormWWWLW
Points / game66.8
Allowed / game67.7
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Valparaiso v Illinois State
07 Jan 2026
VALP77
ILLI71
03 Mar 2024
VALP75
ILLI72
11 Feb 2023
VALP81
ILLI76
02 Jan 2022
VALP81
ILLI76
01 Feb 2020
VALP80
ILLI70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illinois State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri State
#198
L
70-81
70
81
-11
H27/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
70-81
70
81
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H03/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
61-101
61
101
-40
A08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
78-96
78
96
-18
H10/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
67-86
67
86
-19
H15/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
74-82
74
82
-8
A17/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
64-83
64
83
-19
H22/02
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
68-80
68
80
-12
A24/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
54-68
54
68
-14
A28/02
NCAA
1H
2H
37-40
33-41
30-41
40-40
32-30
30-33
36-50
25-51
27-54
51-42
26-38
41-48
41-38
33-44
37-45
27-38
44-36
24-44
21-38
33-30
148.9Avg total
66.8Scored
82.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)67.675.3142.8-7.720%
Season at home (16)69.174.1143.2-4.931%
Season away (14)65.876.6142.4-10.97%
Last 10 (10)66.882.1148.9-15.30%
Last 5 (5)65.479.8145.2-14.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)66.876.1142.9-9.318%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)78.063.5141.5+14.550%
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#225
L
54-58
54
58
-4
A27/01
NCAA
Murray State
#296
W
61-59
61
59
+2
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
60-73
60
73
-13
H03/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
56-61
56
61
-5
H08/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
66-69
66
69
-3
A11/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
80-67
80
67
+13
A14/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
86-79
86
79
+7
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
81-73
81
73
+8
H22/02
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A25/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
W
75-74
75
74
+1
H29/02
NCAA
1H
2H
21-27
33-31
24-26
37-33
20-39
40-34
28-33
28-28
25-42
41-27
35-29
45-38
44-36
42-43
37-34
44-39
21-21
24-27
33-36
42-38
132.5Avg total
66.4Scored
66.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)66.867.7134.5-0.950%
Season at home (17)68.666.3134.9+2.365%
Season away (13)64.469.5133.9-5.231%
Last 10 (10)66.466.1132.5+0.350%
Last 5 (5)73.468.2141.6+5.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)62.872.8135.6-10.09%
vs Similar (16)68.965.7134.6+3.275%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)67.561.5129.0+6.050%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -7.9-7.91st half: -3.5-3.52nd half2nd half: -7.4-7.42nd half: +3.8+3.8
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -7.9-7.91st half: -3.5-3.52nd half2nd half: -7.4-7.42nd half: +3.8+3.8
ValparaisoIllinois State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Missouri State
#198
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H27/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A01/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H03/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
36-50
36
50
-14
A08/02
NCAA
Belmont
#128
L
27-54
27
54
-27
H10/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
26-38
26
38
-12
H15/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A17/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H22/02
NCAA
Murray State
#296
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A24/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
21-38
21
38
-17
A28/02
NCAA
74.1Avg total
33.1Scored
41.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.736.569.2-3.933%-
Last 30 at home (16)32.435.367.8-2.931%-
Last 30 away (14)32.937.970.9-5.036%-
Last 10 (10)33.141.074.1-7.930%-
Last 5 (5)33.839.072.8-5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)31.937.669.5-5.729%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (2)43.522.065.5+21.5100%-
This opponent (Illinois State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illinois StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Evansville
#225
L
21-27
21
27
-6
A27/01
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
24-26
24
26
-2
A31/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
20-39
20
39
-19
H03/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H08/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
25-42
25
42
-17
A11/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
W
35-29
35
29
+6
A14/02
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H18/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
W
37-34
37
34
+3
H22/02
NCAA
Bradley
#71
D
21-21
21
21
+0
A25/02
NCAA
Missouri State
#198
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H29/02
NCAA
61.1Avg total
28.8Scored
32.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.533.363.8-2.837%-
Last 30 at home (17)31.831.563.3+0.253%-
Last 30 away (13)28.835.564.4-6.715%-
Last 10 (10)28.832.361.1-3.530%-
Last 5 (5)34.031.265.2+2.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)26.236.462.5-10.29%-
vs Similar (16)32.932.165.0+0.950%-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)31.028.059.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Valparaiso wins
1
Illinois State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/24ANorthern Iowa54-68
24/02/24AMurray State68-80
22/02/24HIndiana State64-83
17/02/24AMissouri State74-82
15/02/24HNorthern Iowa67-86
10/02/24HBelmont78-96
08/02/24AIndiana State61-101
03/02/24HEvansville62-63
01/02/24ADrake70-81
27/01/24HMissouri State70-81
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/02/24HMissouri State75-74
25/02/24ABradley45-48
22/02/24HNorthern Iowa81-73
18/02/24HEvansville86-79
14/02/24AIndiana State80-67
11/02/24ASouthern Illinois66-69
08/02/24HIllinois (Chi.)56-61
03/02/24HBradley60-73
31/01/24AMurray State61-59
27/01/24AEvansville54-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL20%
HomeLLLLL31%
AwayLLLLL7%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301614
Win %20%31%7%
Points / game67.669.165.8
Allowed / game75.374.176.6
Point differential-7.7-4.9-10.9
Avg total142.8143.2142.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+7%12%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)33% (3)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illinois State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW50%
HomeLLWWW65%
AwayLWLWL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301713
Win %50%65%31%
Points / game66.868.664.4
Allowed / game67.766.369.5
Point differential-0.9+2.3-5.2
Avg total134.5134.9133.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%24%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)75% (4)33% (6)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State3025583%84.471.9+12.5
2 Drake3024680%80.970.9+10.0
3 Bradley3021970%75.167.3+7.8
4 Southern Illinois30191163%72.467.2+5.2
5 Belmont30181260%78.076.6+1.3
6 Northern Iowa30171357%73.270.7+2.5
7 Illinois State30151550%66.867.7-0.9
8 Evansville30151550%72.673.8-1.2
9 Murray State30121840%70.769.6+1.1
10 Illinois (Chi.)30111937%71.071.2-0.2
11 Valparaiso3062420%67.675.3-7.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso443175
Illinois State314172
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