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Valparaiso vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 15 Jan 2022
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 57-74
26-34 31-40
Position#242
Record8-9
FormWWLLL
Points / game73.2
Allowed / game69.2
vs
Position#49
Record12-6
FormWWWLW
Points / game78.9
Allowed / game68.3
USANCAA
Other2021-22
Meetings · Valparaiso v Missouri State
19 Feb 2025
VALP66
MISS64
27 Jan 2024
VALP70
MISS81
15 Jan 2022
VALP57
MISS74
10 Jan 2021
VALP68
MISS78
09 Jan 2021
VALP68
MISS81
25 Feb 2020
VALP89
MISS74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#64
L
66-73
66
73
-7
A03/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#335
W
71-60
71
60
+11
A05/12
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#565
W
101-58
101
58
+43
H08/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#169
L
67-68
67
68
-1
H11/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#309
W
67-55
67
55
+12
H21/12
NCAA
William & Mary
#357
W
88-66
88
66
+22
H22/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
W
81-76 OT
81
76
+5
H02/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
65-92
65
92
-27
A06/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H09/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
L
74-81 OT
74
81
-7
A12/01
NCAA
1H
2H
32-40
34-33
32-30
39-30
43-21
58-37
27-30
40-38
26-28
41-27
50-36
38-30
39-31
31-39
22-43
43-49
22-32
38-31
30-22
25-33
143.2Avg total
74.0Scored
69.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)73.269.2142.4+4.047%
Season at home (10)76.266.2142.4+10.050%
Season away (7)68.973.4142.3-4.643%
Last 10 (10)74.069.2143.2+4.850%
Last 5 (5)73.675.6149.2-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)65.069.0134.0-4.020%
vs Similar (15)63.167.9131.0-4.733%
vs Weaker (4)83.062.5145.5+20.5100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UALR
#311
W
81-55
81
55
+26
A09/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#119
W
69-60
69
60
+9
H11/12
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#7
W
75-63
75
63
+12
H16/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#294
W
106-70
106
70
+36
H19/12
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#35
L
58-75
58
75
-17
A23/12
NCAA
Evangel
#594
W
103-56
103
56
+47
H30/12
NCAA
Drake
#64
W
61-56
61
56
+5
H03/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
W
71-69
71
69
+2
A06/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
84-85
84
85
-1
H08/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
81-76
81
76
+5
H13/01
NCAA
1H
2H
42-28
39-27
27-25
42-35
40-33
35-30
45-30
61-40
36-33
22-42
52-30
51-26
23-29
38-27
41-33
30-36
34-33
50-52
36-34
45-42
145.4Avg total
78.9Scored
66.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)78.968.3147.2+10.667%
Season at home (12)80.669.2149.8+11.467%
Season away (6)75.566.5142.0+9.067%
Last 10 (10)78.966.5145.4+12.480%
Last 5 (5)80.068.4148.4+11.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)55.071.0126.0-16.00%
vs Similar (8)70.062.2132.2+7.875%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)78.268.5146.7+9.772%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +6.8+6.82nd half2nd half: +4.0+4.02nd half: +5.6+5.6
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +1.0+1.01st half: +6.8+6.82nd half2nd half: +4.0+4.02nd half: +5.6+5.6
ValparaisoMissouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#64
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A03/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#335
W
32-30
32
30
+2
A05/12
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#565
W
43-21
43
21
+22
H08/12
NCAA
Charlotte
#169
L
27-30
27
30
-3
H11/12
NCAA
Eastern Michigan
#309
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H21/12
NCAA
William & Mary
#357
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H22/12
NCAA
Illinois State
#269
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H02/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
L
22-43
22
43
-21
A06/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
L
22-32
22
32
-10
H09/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#37
W
30-22
30
22
+8
A12/01
NCAA
63.6Avg total
32.3Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.431.462.8-0.143%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.530.163.6+3.450%-
Last 30 away (14)28.933.061.9-4.136%-
Last 10 (10)32.331.363.6+1.050%-
Last 5 (5)32.632.865.4-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)30.430.861.2-0.450%-
vs Similar (15)29.332.962.2-3.727%-
vs Weaker (4)38.830.068.8+8.875%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UALR
#311
W
42-28
42
28
+14
A09/12
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#119
W
27-25
27
25
+2
H11/12
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#7
W
40-33
40
33
+7
H16/12
NCAA
Central Arkansas
#294
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H19/12
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#35
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A23/12
NCAA
Evangel
#594
W
52-30
52
30
+22
H30/12
NCAA
Drake
#64
L
23-29
23
29
-6
H03/01
NCAA
Bradley
#164
W
41-33
41
33
+8
A06/01
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#110
W
34-33
34
33
+1
H08/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#187
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H13/01
NCAA
68.4Avg total
37.6Scored
30.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.231.267.4+5.070%-
Last 30 at home (18)34.630.965.5+3.667%-
Last 30 away (12)38.731.770.3+7.075%-
Last 10 (10)37.630.868.4+6.890%-
Last 5 (5)37.231.869.0+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)26.341.067.3-14.70%-
vs Similar (8)33.628.862.4+4.975%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)38.130.868.9+7.378%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Valparaiso wins
4
Missouri State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/22ALoyola Chicago74-81 OT
09/01/22HSouthern Illinois60-63
06/01/22ANorthern Iowa65-92
02/01/22HIllinois State81-76 OT
22/12/21HWilliam & Mary88-66
21/12/21HEastern Michigan67-55
11/12/21HCharlotte67-68
08/12/21HEWU Phantoms101-58
05/12/21AWestern Michigan71-60
03/12/21ADrake66-73
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/01/22HSouthern Illinois81-76
08/01/22HNorthern Iowa84-85
06/01/22ABradley71-69
03/01/22HDrake61-56
30/12/21HEvangel103-56
23/12/21ASt. Marys (CA)58-75
19/12/21HCentral Arkansas106-70
16/12/21HSouth Dakota St.75-63
11/12/21HOral Roberts69-60
09/12/21AUALR81-55

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL47%
HomeLWWWL50%
AwayWLWLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %47%50%43%
Points / game73.276.268.9
Allowed / game69.266.273.4
Point differential+4.0+10.0-4.6
Avg total142.4142.4142.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%40%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)20% (5)100% (1)
Overtime %18%20%14%
Missouri State
NCAA 2021-22
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW67%
HomeWWWLW67%
AwayWLWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18126
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game78.980.675.5
Allowed / game68.369.266.5
Point differential+10.6+11.4+9.0
Avg total147.2149.8142.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%42%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)40% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %6%0%17%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murray State1513287%83.465.4+18.0
2 Belmont1613381%82.670.4+12.2
3 Drake1712571%75.264.6+10.6
4 Southern Illinois159660%65.760.8+4.9
5 Northern Iowa158753%75.069.5+5.5
6 Indiana State158753%75.771.0+4.7
7 Illinois State168850%80.178.4+1.6
8 Bradley178947%72.166.7+5.4
9 Valparaiso178947%73.269.2+4.0
10 Illinois (Chi.)146843%68.970.9-1.9
11 Evansville1541127%60.567.4-6.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 New Mexico State1614288%76.967.4+9.5
2 Louisiana Tech1714382%79.167.5+11.6
3 Missouri State1812667%78.968.3+10.6
4 Liberty1711665%72.459.8+12.6
5 Delaware1711665%74.970.5+4.4
6 Middle Tenn. St.1610662%74.866.4+8.4
7 Jacksonville State159660%76.167.1+8.9
8 Western Kentucky1710759%76.568.2+8.3
9 Sam Houston St.1910953%71.365.3+5.9
10 UTEP168850%68.465.0+3.4
11 Kennesaw State157847%78.468.9+9.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso263157
Missouri State344074
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