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Missouri State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Mar 2021
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 66-55
31-13 35-42
Position#50
Record16-6
FormWWWWL
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game66.7
vs
Position#279
Record10-17
FormLWLLW
Points / game65.4
Allowed / game68.0
USANCAA
Other2020-21
Meetings · Missouri State v Valparaiso
01 Jan 2025
MISS72
VALP73
17 Feb 2024
MISS82
VALP74
01 Feb 2023
MISS76
VALP67
04 Mar 2022
MISS67
VALP58
12 Feb 2022
MISS84
VALP66
05 Mar 2021
MISS66
VALP55
07 Mar 2020
MISS82
VALP89
23 Jan 2020
MISS67
VALP60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Chicago
#10
L
46-72
46
72
-26
H31/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#10
L
50-70
50
70
-20
H02/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#311
W
74-67
74
67
+7
A06/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#311
W
72-62
72
62
+10
A07/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
W
65-53
65
53
+12
H11/02
NCAA
Bradley
#234
W
80-58
80
58
+22
H13/02
NCAA
Bradley
#234
W
72-57
72
57
+15
H14/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
W
68-53
68
53
+15
A18/02
NCAA
Evansville
#277
W
90-81
90
81
+9
A27/02
NCAA
Evansville
#277
L
63-72
63
72
-9
A28/02
NCAA
1H
2H
16-41
30-31
26-42
24-28
36-36
38-31
42-34
30-28
24-21
41-32
44-24
36-34
39-29
33-28
36-22
32-31
42-37
48-44
30-38
33-34
132.5Avg total
68.0Scored
64.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)74.066.7140.7+7.273%
Season at home (13)72.865.6138.5+7.269%
Season away (9)75.668.3143.9+7.278%
Last 10 (10)68.064.5132.5+3.570%
Last 5 (5)74.664.2138.8+10.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)57.572.0129.5-14.50%
vs Similar (10)79.166.8145.9+12.370%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)77.068.0145.0+9.086%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#11
L
77-80
77
80
-3
H06/02
NCAA
Drake
#11
W
74-57
74
57
+17
H07/02
NCAA
Bradley
#234
L
52-76
52
76
-24
H11/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#254
W
70-57
70
57
+13
A14/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#254
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A15/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#10
L
52-54
52
54
-2
A18/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
W
66-65
66
65
+1
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H23/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#122
L
43-58
43
58
-15
H27/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#122
W
70-58
70
58
+12
H27/02
NCAA
1H
2H
43-35
34-45
36-24
38-33
30-37
22-39
39-27
31-30
33-39
27-35
29-26
23-28
34-39
32-26
26-30
38-37
16-38
27-20
39-18
31-40
127.4Avg total
62.8Scored
64.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)65.468.0133.4-2.637%
Season at home (13)69.268.4137.6+0.846%
Season away (14)61.967.6129.5-5.829%
Last 10 (10)62.864.6127.4-1.840%
Last 5 (5)59.060.4119.4-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)64.872.5137.4-7.727%
vs Similar (15)64.167.9132.1-3.840%
vs Weaker (4)78.057.2135.2+20.8100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: +1.2+1.22nd half2nd half: +2.4+2.42nd half: -3.0-3.0
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +1.1+1.11st half: +1.2+1.22nd half2nd half: +2.4+2.42nd half: -3.0-3.0
Missouri StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Chicago
#10
L
16-41
16
41
-25
H31/01
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#10
L
26-42
26
42
-16
H02/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#311
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A06/02
NCAA
Illinois State
#311
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A07/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
W
24-21
24
21
+3
H11/02
NCAA
Bradley
#234
W
44-24
44
24
+20
H13/02
NCAA
Bradley
#234
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H14/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
W
36-22
36
22
+14
A18/02
NCAA
Evansville
#277
W
42-37
42
37
+5
A27/02
NCAA
Evansville
#277
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A28/02
NCAA
65.9Avg total
33.5Scored
32.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.031.968.9+5.170%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.230.267.5+7.076%-
Last 30 away (13)36.834.170.8+2.762%-
Last 10 (10)33.532.465.9+1.160%-
Last 5 (5)38.230.068.2+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)29.538.267.8-8.825%-
vs Similar (10)39.631.471.0+8.270%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)37.531.869.3+5.779%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Drake
#11
W
43-35
43
35
+8
H06/02
NCAA
Drake
#11
W
36-24
36
24
+12
H07/02
NCAA
Bradley
#234
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H11/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#254
W
39-27
39
27
+12
A14/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#254
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A15/02
NCAA
Loyola Chicago
#10
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A18/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#211
L
26-30
26
30
-4
H23/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#122
L
16-38
16
38
-22
H27/02
NCAA
Indiana State
#122
W
39-18
39
18
+21
H27/02
NCAA
63.8Avg total
32.5Scored
31.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.631.463.0+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (14)32.130.962.9+1.250%-
Last 30 away (16)31.231.963.1-0.844%-
Last 10 (10)32.531.363.8+1.250%-
Last 5 (5)28.830.259.0-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)30.032.362.3-2.336%-
vs Similar (15)31.332.463.7-1.140%-
vs Weaker (4)37.025.562.5+11.5100%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Missouri State wins
2
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/21AEvansville63-72
27/02/21AEvansville90-81
18/02/21ASouthern Illinois68-53
14/02/21HBradley72-57
13/02/21HBradley80-58
11/02/21HSouthern Illinois65-53
07/02/21AIllinois State72-62
06/02/21AIllinois State74-67
02/02/21HLoyola Chicago50-70
31/01/21HLoyola Chicago46-72
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/02/21HIndiana State70-58
27/02/21HIndiana State43-58
23/02/21HSouthern Illinois64-67
21/02/21ASouthern Illinois66-65
18/02/21ALoyola Chicago52-54
15/02/21ANorthern Iowa60-74
14/02/21ANorthern Iowa70-57
11/02/21HBradley52-76
07/02/21HDrake74-57
06/02/21HDrake77-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL73%
HomeLLWWW69%
AwayWWWWL78%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22139
Win %73%69%78%
Points / game74.072.875.6
Allowed / game66.765.668.3
Point differential+7.2+7.2+7.2
Avg total140.7138.5143.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%46%56%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2020-21
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW37%
HomeWLLLW46%
AwayLWLLW29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %37%46%29%
Points / game65.469.261.9
Allowed / game68.068.467.6
Point differential-2.6+0.8-5.8
Avg total133.4137.6129.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%38%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty2722581%74.759.1+15.7
2 Louisiana Tech2620677%74.564.9+9.6
3 Western Kentucky2317674%74.569.0+5.4
4 Sam Houston St.2619773%80.870.6+10.2
5 Missouri State2216673%74.066.7+7.2
6 Jacksonville State2718967%74.368.6+5.7
7 UTEP23121152%70.868.2+2.6
8 New Mexico State147750%69.665.0+4.6
9 Delaware147750%67.066.4+0.6
10 Middle Tenn. St.2251723%62.370.5-8.2
11 Kennesaw State2451921%65.569.7-4.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Belmont3027390%81.468.7+12.8
2 Drake2724389%78.164.1+14.0
3 Indiana State2415962%67.265.8+1.4
4 Murray State26131350%76.466.9+9.5
5 Southern Illinois26121446%65.568.1-2.5
6 Illinois (Chi.)22101245%68.072.0-4.0
7 Bradley28121643%69.666.6+3.0
8 Northern Iowa25101540%69.571.2-1.6
9 Valparaiso27101737%65.468.0-2.6
10 Evansville2591636%64.869.6-4.8
11 Illinois State2571828%72.074.8-2.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Missouri State313566
Valparaiso134255
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