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Valparaiso vs Missouri State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 27 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 21:00
Final 70-81
37-40 33-41
Position#355
Record6-14
FormLWLWL
Points / game68.0
Allowed / game71.8
vs
Position#198
Record11-9
FormLWLLW
Points / game70.8
Allowed / game70.2
USANCAA
Other2023-24
Meetings · Valparaiso v Missouri State
19 Feb 2025
VALP66
MISS64
27 Jan 2024
VALP70
MISS81
15 Jan 2022
VALP57
MISS74
10 Jan 2021
VALP68
MISS78
09 Jan 2021
VALP68
MISS81
25 Feb 2020
VALP89
MISS74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valparaiso winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Missouri State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago State
#286
L
62-63
62
63
-1
H16/12
NCAA
Samford
#12
L
61-79
61
79
-18
H19/12
NCAA
Elon
#282
L
78-82
78
82
-4
A29/12
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
61-86
61
86
-25
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
64-70
64
70
-6
A07/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
68-77
68
77
-9
H11/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A14/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
75-78
75
78
-3
A18/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
W
84-77
84
77
+7
H20/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
69-75
69
75
-6
A25/01
NCAA
1H
2H
32-33
30-30
27-35
34-44
29-42
49-40
29-44
32-42
36-42
28-28
24-44
44-33
28-20
31-30
38-40
37-38
34-39
50-38
34-29
35-46
141.8Avg total
68.1Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)68.071.8139.8-3.930%
Season at home (11)69.570.5140.1-1.045%
Season away (9)66.073.4139.4-7.411%
Last 10 (10)68.173.7141.8-5.620%
Last 5 (5)71.071.4142.4-0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)67.073.8140.8-6.722%
vs Similar (4)70.076.2146.2-6.225%
vs Weaker (3)79.065.3144.3+13.767%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulsa
#190
L
72-73
72
73
-1
A16/12
NCAA
Lindenwood
#333
W
79-57
79
57
+22
H20/12
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#24
W
69-64
69
64
+5
A24/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
62-64
62
64
-2
H04/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
60-86
60
86
-26
A06/01
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
53-77
53
77
-24
H11/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A14/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
66-88
66
88
-22
A17/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
L
60-69
60
69
-9
H20/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
W
83-80 OT
83
80
+3
H25/01
NCAA
1H
2H
37-36
35-37
34-16
45-41
31-32
38-32
29-33
33-31
28-42
32-44
19-42
34-35
36-35
38-29
30-44
36-44
33-42
27-27
29-42
36-23
140.0Avg total
67.8Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)70.870.2140.9+0.655%
Season at home (11)74.168.1142.2+6.073%
Season away (9)66.772.7139.3-6.033%
Last 10 (10)67.872.2140.0-4.440%
Last 5 (5)67.275.6142.8-8.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)65.074.0139.0-9.043%
vs Similar (16)68.266.2134.5+2.056%
vs Weaker ◀ (7)74.165.6139.7+8.671%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -5.7-5.71st half: -5.8-5.82nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: +1.1+1.1
-7-4+0+4+71st half1st half: -5.7-5.71st half: -5.8-5.82nd half2nd half: +0.1+0.12nd half: +1.1+1.1
ValparaisoMissouri State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago State
#286
L
32-33
32
33
-1
H16/12
NCAA
Samford
#12
L
27-35
27
35
-8
H19/12
NCAA
Elon
#282
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A29/12
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
29-44
29
44
-15
H04/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A07/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
L
24-44
24
44
-20
H11/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
W
28-20
28
20
+8
A14/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A18/01
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#303
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H20/01
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#131
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A25/01
NCAA
67.9Avg total
31.1Scored
36.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.834.667.4-1.837%-
Last 30 at home (16)33.132.865.8+0.344%-
Last 30 away (14)32.636.769.3-4.129%-
Last 10 (10)31.136.867.9-5.720%-
Last 5 (5)31.634.466.0-2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)31.335.566.8-4.230%-
vs Similar (4)33.837.571.2-3.825%-
vs Weaker (3)43.324.067.3+19.3100%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tulsa
#190
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A16/12
NCAA
Lindenwood
#333
W
34-16
34
16
+18
H20/12
NCAA
St. Marys (CA)
#24
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A24/12
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#150
L
29-33
29
33
-4
H04/01
NCAA
Bradley
#71
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A06/01
NCAA
Murray State
#296
L
19-42
19
42
-23
H11/01
NCAA
Evansville
#225
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A14/01
NCAA
Indiana State
#13
L
30-44
30
44
-14
A17/01
NCAA
Illinois State
#240
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H20/01
NCAA
Drake
#15
L
29-42
29
42
-13
H25/01
NCAA
67.0Avg total
30.6Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.332.565.8+0.860%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.132.267.3+2.869%-
Last 30 away (14)31.332.964.1-1.650%-
Last 10 (10)30.636.467.0-5.830%-
Last 5 (5)29.441.070.4-11.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)29.036.965.9-7.914%-
vs Similar (16)35.632.668.2+2.975%-
vs Weaker ◀ (7)32.428.060.4+4.471%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Valparaiso wins
8
Missouri State wins
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/24ASouthern Illinois69-75
20/01/24HIllinois (Chi.)84-77
18/01/24AEvansville75-78
14/01/24AIllinois State59-50
11/01/24HSouthern Illinois68-77
07/01/24AIllinois (Chi.)64-70
04/01/24HBradley61-86
29/12/23AElon78-82
19/12/23HSamford61-79
16/12/23HChicago State62-63
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/24HDrake83-80 OT
20/01/24HIllinois State60-69
17/01/24AIndiana State66-88
14/01/24AEvansville74-64
11/01/24HMurray State53-77
06/01/24ABradley60-86
04/01/24HNorthern Iowa62-64
24/12/23ASt. Marys (CA)69-64
20/12/23HLindenwood79-57
16/12/23ATulsa72-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valparaiso
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL30%
HomeLLLLW45%
AwayLLWLL11%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %30%45%11%
Points / game68.069.566.0
Allowed / game71.870.573.4
Point differential-3.9-1.0-7.4
Avg total139.8140.1139.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%18%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)50% (2)0% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Missouri State
NCAA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW55%
HomeWLLLW73%
AwayLWLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %55%73%33%
Points / game70.874.166.7
Allowed / game70.268.172.7
Point differential+0.6+6.0-6.0
Avg total140.9142.2139.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%45%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %10%9%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Indiana State2017385%85.972.0+13.8
2 Drake2016480%79.867.5+12.2
3 Bradley2015575%75.266.3+8.9
4 Southern Illinois2114767%72.464.5+8.0
5 Northern Iowa2012860%74.670.5+4.2
6 Evansville2112957%73.473.6-0.2
7 Belmont2011955%77.378.8-1.5
8 Illinois State21101148%66.368.0-1.7
9 Illinois (Chi.)2081240%70.167.8+2.3
10 Murray State2181338%71.069.3+1.7
11 Valparaiso2061430%68.071.8-3.9
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Louisiana Tech2115671%75.463.2+12.2
2 Western Kentucky2014670%80.575.1+5.5
3 Liberty2013765%76.563.3+13.2
4 Kennesaw State2013765%84.278.3+5.9
5 Delaware2112957%75.371.0+4.3
6 UTEP2011955%74.569.8+4.7
7 Missouri State2011955%70.870.2+0.6
8 Sam Houston St.2011955%72.071.7+0.3
9 Jacksonville State20101050%70.764.0+6.7
10 New Mexico State2191243%69.471.7-2.3
11 Florida International2071335%77.077.2-0.1
12 Middle Tenn. St.2071335%63.066.5-3.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Valparaiso373370
Missouri State404181
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