PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Adelaide Lightning W vs Sydney W Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 06 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 64-66
21-21 11-13 12-15 20-17
Position#7
Record2-5
FormLWLLL
Points / game67.3
Allowed / game72.3
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
vs
Sydney W 🏆
Australia
Position#6
Record2-3
FormLWLWL
Points / game74.2
Allowed / game81.0
AustraliaNBL W· Adelaide Arena
Women2023-24
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W
13 Jan 2026
ADEL76
SYDN65
09 Nov 2025
ADEL88
SYDN71
20 Nov 2024
ADEL78
SYDN54
05 Jan 2024
ADEL74
SYDN67
06 Dec 2023
ADEL64
SYDN66
12 Jan 2023
ADEL77
SYDN81
19 Nov 2022
ADEL87
SYDN67
05 Mar 2022
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
28 Nov 2020
ADEL75
SYDN53
11 Oct 2019
ADEL89
SYDN79
04 Jan 2019
ADEL110
SYDN61
21 Dec 2018
ADEL95
SYDN52
06 Oct 2017
ADEL91
SYDN80
12 Jan 2017
ADEL74
SYDN77
29 Dec 2016
ADEL72
SYDN89
17 Oct 2015
ADEL71
SYDN88
06 Feb 2015
ADEL72
SYDN60
15 Nov 2014
ADEL59
SYDN78
26 Jan 2014
ADEL68
SYDN71
08 Feb 2013
ADEL98
SYDN73
13 Oct 2012
ADEL86
SYDN60
14 Oct 2011
ADEL65
SYDN70
29 Jan 2011
ADEL55
SYDN80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
78-72
78
72
+6
no box
A18/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
91-101
91
101
-10
no box
A24/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
93-97
93
97
-4
no box
H02/03
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
60-68
60
68
-8
53avg 58
H01/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
82-79
82
79
+3
71avg 58
A05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
85-92
85
92
-7
86avg 58
A11/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
67-56
67
56
+11
49avg 58
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
51-74
51
74
-23
36avg 58
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
61-67
61
67
-6
52avg 58
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
65-70 OT
65
70
-5
no box
H02/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-27
27-10
19-12
18-23
23-32
23-26
28-15
17-28
20-25
18-32
27-25
28-15
24-13
11-13
13-25
12-17
31-20
27-23
12-16
12-20
27-17
17-25
28-24
13-26
14-15
25-11
8-9
20-21
14-27
11-11
17-22
9-14
19-15
11-19
21-16
10-17
15-19
8-9
15-22
22-10
150.9Avg total
73.3Scored
77.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)67.372.3139.6-5.029%
Season at home (4)60.867.0127.8-6.225%
Season away (3)76.079.3155.3-3.333%
Last 10 (10)73.377.6150.9-4.330%
Last 5 (5)65.871.8137.6-6.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)73.681.4154.9-7.816%
vs Similar ◀ (7)78.484.1162.6-5.714%
vs Weaker (4)85.082.0167.0+3.075%
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#3
W
68-67
68
67
+1
no box
A04/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#2
L
57-87
57
87
-30
no box
H19/02
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
101-91
101
91
+10
no box
H24/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
72-73
72
73
-1
no box
A26/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#2
L
60-100
60
100
-40
no box
A05/03
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
71-85
71
85
-14
58avg 67
A03/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
W
68-62
68
62
+6
66avg 67
A10/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
80-95
80
95
-15
72avg 67
H12/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
86-81
86
81
+5
82avg 67
H15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
66-82
66
82
-16
54avg 67
A25/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-16
15-20
13-14
21-17
13-21
17-21
18-16
9-29
32-23
26-23
15-28
28-17
23-17
18-19
17-21
14-16
15-26
19-18
7-31
19-25
13-20
16-18
18-18
24-29
12-12
23-8
13-23
20-19
23-25
21-23
13-23
23-24
29-26
23-19
16-15
18-21
18-17
28-20
9-28
11-17
155.2Avg total
72.9Scored
82.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)74.281.0155.2-6.840%
Season at home (2)83.088.0171.0-5.050%
Season away (3)68.376.3144.7-8.033%
Last 10 (10)72.982.3155.2-9.440%
Last 5 (5)74.281.0155.2-6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)69.181.0150.1-11.911%
vs Similar ◀ (8)75.280.6155.9-5.450%
vs Weaker (4)86.575.8162.2+10.8100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -7.8-7.8Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: -2.7-2.7
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.9-0.9Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +0.2+0.2Q3: -7.8-7.8Q4Q4: -3.0-3.0Q4: -2.7-2.7
Adelaide Lightning WSydney W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
41-37
41
37
+4
A18/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A24/02
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
38-57
38
57
-19
H02/03
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
35-26
35
26
+9
H01/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
58-43
58
43
+15
A05/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A11/11
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
25-38
25
38
-13
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H02/12
NBL W
76.8Avg total
37.9Scored
38.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.140.479.5-1.337%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.138.075.1-0.938%-
Last 30 away (14)41.543.184.6-1.636%-
Last 10 (10)37.938.976.8-1.050%-
Last 5 (5)32.233.665.8-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)38.139.677.7-1.632%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)40.742.182.9-1.443%-
vs Weaker (4)41.541.082.5+0.550%-
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#3
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A04/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#2
L
30-42
30
42
-12
H19/02
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
58-46
58
46
+12
H24/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A26/02
NBL W
Geelong United W
#2
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A05/03
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A03/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
W
35-20
35
20
+15
A10/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H12/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A25/11
NBL W
79.5Avg total
40.3Scored
39.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.940.278.1-2.240%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.642.383.9-0.650%-
Last 30 away (16)34.738.373.0-3.631%-
Last 10 (10)40.339.279.5+1.150%-
Last 5 (5)41.237.678.8+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (18)36.440.376.7-3.928%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)38.140.178.2-2.038%-
vs Weaker (4)44.539.884.2+4.8100%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 66.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.3 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.018.2
44.3%
47.3%36.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.26.5
26.9%
32.7%19.5
🏀 Free throws15.310.8
70.7%
74.3%10.8
They take 65.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydney Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney W: 72.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.819.2
47.1%
47.3%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.07.4
29.6%
32.7%22.2
🏀 Free throws15.212.0
78.9%
74.3%12.0
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 6/5 games with a box score before 06 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLWLWLLLW
Sydney W
LWLWLLLWLW
#7
League position
#6
-6.3
Net rating
-10.2
84.4
Offensive rating
97.3
90.8
Defensive rating
107.5
42.8%
Effective FG%
46.0%
43.2%
Opp. effective FG%
49.1%
23.8%
Turnover %
17.6%
28.2%
Off. rebound %
28.6%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.23
26.9%
3-point %
29.6%
60.8%
Assist %
60.9%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence84.4 · 97.3Defence90.8 · 107.5Shooting42.8% · 46.0%3-point %26.9% · 29.6%Ball care23.8% · 17.6%Off. rebounds28.2% · 28.6%Free throws0.24 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Sydney W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Adelaide Lightning W wins
4
Sydney W wins
DateGameScore
24/02/23Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W101-91
12/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W77-81
19/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W87-67
26/02/22Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W56-73
20/01/22Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W52-77
13/12/20Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W86-60
28/11/20Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W75-53
29/12/19Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W72-80
08/12/19Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W81-69
11/10/19Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W89-79
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/12/23HBendigo W65-70 OT
29/11/23ATownsville W61-67
23/11/23HTownsville W51-74
18/11/23HSouthside W67-56
11/11/23APerth Lynx W85-92
05/11/23ACanberra Capitals W82-79
01/11/23HGeelong United W60-68
02/03/23HPerth Lynx W93-97
24/02/23ASydney W91-101
18/02/23ACanberra Capitals W78-72
Sydney Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/23ABendigo W66-82
15/11/23HCanberra Capitals W86-81
12/11/23HGeelong United W80-95
10/11/23ABendigo W68-62
03/11/23APerth Lynx W71-85
05/03/23AGeelong United W60-100
26/02/23ATownsville W72-73
24/02/23HAdelaide Lightning W101-91
19/02/23HGeelong United W57-87
04/02/23ASouthside W68-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL29%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%25%33%
Points / game67.360.876.0
Allowed / game72.367.079.3
Point differential-5.0-6.2-3.3
Avg total139.6127.8155.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %14%25%0%
Sydney W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL40%
HomeLW50%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game74.283.068.3
Allowed / game81.088.076.3
Point differential-6.8-5.0-8.0
Avg total155.2171.0144.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W65183%80.869.3+11.5
2 Geelong United W65183%77.774.2+3.5
3 Perth Lynx W64267%85.280.2+5.0
4 Southside W64267%80.075.5+4.5
5 Sydney W52340%74.281.0-6.8
6 Bendigo W62433%74.075.7-1.7
7 Adelaide Lightning W72529%67.372.3-5.0
8 Canberra Capitals W6060%76.287.5-11.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2111122064
Sydney W2113151766
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.