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Adelaide Lightning W vs Sydney W Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 05 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 74-67
24-19 12-14 11-22 27-12
Position#7
Record3-10
FormLLWLL
Points / game70.0
Allowed / game75.6
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Sydney W
Australia
Position#6
Record7-5
FormLLWWW
Points / game71.4
Allowed / game75.5
AustraliaNBL W· Adelaide
Women2023-24
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W
13 Jan 2026
ADEL76
SYDN65
09 Nov 2025
ADEL88
SYDN71
20 Nov 2024
ADEL78
SYDN54
05 Jan 2024
ADEL74
SYDN67
06 Dec 2023
ADEL64
SYDN66
12 Jan 2023
ADEL77
SYDN81
19 Nov 2022
ADEL87
SYDN67
05 Mar 2022
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
28 Nov 2020
ADEL75
SYDN53
11 Oct 2019
ADEL89
SYDN79
04 Jan 2019
ADEL110
SYDN61
21 Dec 2018
ADEL95
SYDN52
06 Oct 2017
ADEL91
SYDN80
12 Jan 2017
ADEL74
SYDN77
29 Dec 2016
ADEL72
SYDN89
17 Oct 2015
ADEL71
SYDN88
06 Feb 2015
ADEL72
SYDN60
15 Nov 2014
ADEL59
SYDN78
26 Jan 2014
ADEL68
SYDN71
08 Feb 2013
ADEL98
SYDN73
13 Oct 2012
ADEL86
SYDN60
14 Oct 2011
ADEL65
SYDN70
29 Jan 2011
ADEL55
SYDN80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#1
W
67-56
67
56
+11
49avg 58
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
51-74
51
74
-23
36avg 58
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
61-67
61
67
-6
52avg 58
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
65-70 OT
65
70
-5
no box
H02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
64-66
64
66
-2
56avg 58
H06/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
95-98 OT
95
98
-3
no box
H10/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
77-81
77
81
-4
71avg 58
A15/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
68-59
68
59
+9
64avg 58
A17/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
L
73-86
73
86
-13
59avg 58
A21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
62-87
62
87
-25
45avg 58
H30/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-15
25-11
8-9
20-21
14-27
11-11
17-22
9-14
19-15
11-19
21-16
10-17
15-19
8-9
15-22
22-10
21-21
11-13
12-15
20-17
26-13
23-23
19-25
20-27
12-19
20-15
19-23
26-24
20-22
18-15
15-14
15-8
14-24
19-19
18-23
22-20
24-19
16-22
15-31
7-15
142.7Avg total
68.3Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)70.075.6145.6-5.623%
Season at home (7)66.374.1140.4-7.914%
Season away (6)74.377.3151.7-3.033%
Last 10 (10)68.374.4142.7-6.120%
Last 5 (5)75.082.2157.2-7.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)73.079.4152.4-6.424%
vs Similar ◀ (8)77.685.8163.4-8.10%
vs Weaker (5)82.682.8165.4-0.260%
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#3
L
80-95
80
95
-15
72avg 63
H12/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
86-81
86
81
+5
82avg 63
H15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
66-82
66
82
-16
54avg 63
A25/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
66-64
66
64
+2
61avg 63
A06/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
72-70
72
70
+2
66avg 63
A08/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
58-98
58
98
-40
43avg 63
A13/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
48-70
48
70
-22
35avg 63
H16/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
86-58
86
58
+28
85avg 63
A20/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
W
79-67
79
67
+12
75avg 63
H22/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
77-74 OT
77
74
+3
no box
H29/12
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-25
21-23
13-23
23-24
29-26
23-19
16-15
18-21
18-17
28-20
9-28
11-17
21-21
13-11
15-12
17-20
22-14
22-18
5-23
23-15
19-23
14-29
8-26
17-20
9-15
11-18
14-15
14-22
20-16
22-13
18-19
26-10
19-25
24-26
19-9
17-7
10-8
12-24
27-18
15-14
147.7Avg total
71.8Scored
75.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)71.475.5146.9-4.158%
Season at home (5)74.077.4151.4-3.460%
Season away (7)69.674.1143.7-4.657%
Last 10 (10)71.875.9147.7-4.160%
Last 5 (5)69.673.4143.0-3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)68.981.3150.2-12.513%
vs Similar ◀ (10)75.677.9153.5-2.360%
vs Weaker (5)83.674.6158.2+9.0100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -4.1-4.1Q3: -4.4-4.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.1+1.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.5+0.5Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -4.1-4.1Q3: -4.4-4.4Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +1.1+1.1
Adelaide Lightning WSydney W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#1
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H18/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
25-38
25
38
-13
H23/11
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A29/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
23-28
23
28
-5
H02/12
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H06/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
49-36
49
36
+13
H10/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A15/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A17/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A21/12
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H30/12
NBL W
69.2Avg total
34.1Scored
35.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.440.078.4-1.637%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.839.076.8-1.235%-
Last 30 away (13)39.241.380.5-2.238%-
Last 10 (10)34.135.169.2-1.030%-
Last 5 (5)38.438.276.6+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.238.575.8-1.335%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)39.942.282.1-2.438%-
vs Weaker (5)39.841.481.2-1.640%-
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Geelong United W
#3
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H12/11
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H15/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A25/11
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A06/12
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A08/12
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
33-52
33
52
-19
A13/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
20-33
20
33
-13
H16/12
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A20/12
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
43-51
43
51
-8
H22/12
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
22-32
22
32
-10
H29/12
NBL W
77.1Avg total
38.0Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.439.377.7-0.947%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.040.980.9-0.947%-
Last 30 away (15)36.837.774.5-0.947%-
Last 10 (10)38.039.177.1-1.150%-
Last 5 (5)32.039.471.4-7.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)35.639.174.7-3.527%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)39.640.279.8-0.650%-
vs Weaker (5)44.438.282.6+6.2100%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 67.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.818.7
43.7%
47.3%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.36.8
28.0%
32.7%20.4
🏀 Free throws14.610.0
68.5%
74.3%10.0
They take 67.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydney Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney W: 69.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.716.4
43.5%
47.3%32.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.88.5
34.3%
32.7%25.5
🏀 Free throws15.211.4
75.0%
74.3%11.4
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLWLLLLLLW
Sydney W
WWWLLWWLWL
#7
League position
#6
-7.8
Net rating
-5.7
86.8
Offensive rating
95.0
94.6
Defensive rating
100.7
43.1%
Effective FG%
46.6%
46.1%
Opp. effective FG%
47.3%
20.6%
Turnover %
19.1%
26.6%
Off. rebound %
26.2%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.24
28.0%
3-point %
34.3%
62.7%
Assist %
68.3%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence86.8 · 95.0Defence94.6 · 100.7Shooting43.1% · 46.6%3-point %28.0% · 34.3%Ball care20.6% · 19.1%Off. rebounds26.6% · 26.2%Free throws0.22 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)20% · 60%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Sydney W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
5
Sydney W wins
DateGameScore
06/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W64-66
24/02/23Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W101-91
12/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W77-81
19/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W87-67
26/02/22Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W56-73
20/01/22Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W52-77
13/12/20Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W86-60
28/11/20Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W75-53
29/12/19Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W72-80
08/12/19Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W81-69
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/23HSouthside W62-87
21/12/23ACanberra Capitals W73-86
17/12/23AGeelong United W68-59
15/12/23ABendigo W77-81
10/12/23HPerth Lynx W95-98 OT
06/12/23HSydney W64-66
02/12/23HBendigo W65-70 OT
29/11/23ATownsville W61-67
23/11/23HTownsville W51-74
18/11/23HSouthside W67-56
Sydney Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/23HTownsville W77-74 OT
22/12/23HBendigo W79-67
20/12/23AGeelong United W86-58
16/12/23HTownsville W48-70
13/12/23APerth Lynx W58-98
08/12/23ACanberra Capitals W72-70
06/12/23AAdelaide Lightning W66-64
25/11/23ABendigo W66-82
15/11/23HCanberra Capitals W86-81
12/11/23HGeelong United W80-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL23%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %23%14%33%
Points / game70.066.374.3
Allowed / game75.674.177.3
Point differential-5.6-7.9-3.0
Avg total145.6140.4151.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%14%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %15%29%0%
Sydney W
NBL W 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW58%
HomeLWLWW60%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %58%60%57%
Points / game71.474.069.6
Allowed / game75.577.474.1
Point differential-4.1-3.4-4.6
Avg total146.9151.4143.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%20%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %8%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Townsville W1310377%82.470.0+12.4
2 Geelong United W138562%75.073.0+2.0
3 Perth Lynx W138562%85.984.1+1.8
4 Southside W127558%79.876.2+3.6
5 Sydney W127558%71.475.5-4.1
6 Bendigo W114736%73.277.7-4.5
7 Adelaide Lightning W1331023%70.075.6-5.6
8 Canberra Capitals W112918%76.584.0-7.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2412112774
Sydney W1914221267
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