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Adelaide Lightning W vs Sydney W Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 20 Nov 2024
Tip-off: 08:00
Final 78-54
20-11 18-12 16-17 24-14
Position#6
Record0-3
FormWWLLL
Points / game71.3
Allowed / game82.7
Adelaide Lightning W 🏆
Australia
vs
Sydney W
Australia
Position#5
Record1-2
FormLLWLL
Points / game82.7
Allowed / game86.0
AustraliaNBL WRound 4· Adelaide Arena
Women2024-25
Meetings · Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W
13 Jan 2026
ADEL76
SYDN65
09 Nov 2025
ADEL88
SYDN71
20 Nov 2024
ADEL78
SYDN54
05 Jan 2024
ADEL74
SYDN67
06 Dec 2023
ADEL64
SYDN66
12 Jan 2023
ADEL77
SYDN81
19 Nov 2022
ADEL87
SYDN67
05 Mar 2022
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
28 Nov 2020
ADEL75
SYDN53
11 Oct 2019
ADEL89
SYDN79
04 Jan 2019
ADEL110
SYDN61
21 Dec 2018
ADEL95
SYDN52
06 Oct 2017
ADEL91
SYDN80
12 Jan 2017
ADEL74
SYDN77
29 Dec 2016
ADEL72
SYDN89
17 Oct 2015
ADEL71
SYDN88
06 Feb 2015
ADEL72
SYDN60
15 Nov 2014
ADEL59
SYDN78
26 Jan 2014
ADEL68
SYDN71
08 Feb 2013
ADEL98
SYDN73
13 Oct 2012
ADEL86
SYDN60
14 Oct 2011
ADEL65
SYDN70
29 Jan 2011
ADEL55
SYDN80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide Lightning W winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney W winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
68-84
68
84
-16
55avg 61
A07/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
68-96
68
96
-28
51avg 61
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
65-88
65
88
-23
56avg 61
A17/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
90-75
90
75
+15
87avg 61
A20/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
84-67
84
67
+17
81avg 61
H28/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
70-61
70
61
+9
70avg 61
H17/02
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
74-60
74
60
+14
72avg 61
A24/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
70-84
70
84
-14
56avg 61
A02/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
78-92
78
92
-14
57avg 61
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
L
66-72 OT
66
72
-6
56avg 61
A16/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-20
14-17
21-31
19-16
15-33
25-18
10-20
18-25
11-27
16-11
19-22
19-28
17-26
26-15
23-14
24-20
23-26
16-15
18-12
27-14
20-15
22-18
15-15
13-13
17-13
11-16
21-12
25-19
23-28
22-20
18-17
7-19
28-25
18-28
18-18
14-21
18-13
17-19
22-15
7-17
151.2Avg total
73.3Scored
77.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)71.382.7154.0-11.30%
Season at home (1)78.092.0170.0-14.00%
Season away (2)68.078.0146.0-10.00%
Last 10 (10)73.377.9151.2-4.640%
Last 5 (5)71.673.8145.4-2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)71.176.9148.0-5.929%
vs Similar ◀ (7)77.485.1162.6-7.714%
vs Weaker (6)78.878.8157.7+0.050%
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#1
L
73-79
73
79
-6
64avg 70
A12/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
87-84
87
84
+3
78avg 70
H14/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
88-65
88
65
+23
88avg 70
H17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
90-65
90
65
+25
90avg 70
H19/01
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
102-81
102
81
+21
103avg 70
H25/01
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
78-81
78
81
-3
68avg 70
H18/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
78-90
78
90
-12
65avg 70
A25/02
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
102-85
102
85
+17
108avg 70
H03/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
75-83
75
83
-8
71avg 70
A09/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
71-90
71
90
-19
64avg 70
H13/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-22
21-12
20-25
15-20
24-16
21-25
22-20
20-23
27-11
11-16
22-19
28-19
18-17
24-13
27-19
21-16
29-18
24-17
22-23
27-23
21-23
24-19
17-20
16-19
23-27
17-21
19-19
19-23
35-21
24-23
22-18
21-23
26-21
13-24
19-22
17-16
18-29
18-27
17-19
18-15
164.7Avg total
84.4Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)82.786.0168.7-3.333%
Season at home (2)86.587.5174.0-1.050%
Season away (1)75.083.0158.0-8.00%
Last 10 (10)84.480.3164.7+4.150%
Last 5 (5)80.885.8166.6-5.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)67.781.4149.1-13.822%
vs Similar ◀ (18)77.977.6155.4+0.350%
vs Weaker (3)82.772.0154.7+10.7100%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: +0.5+0.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -4.0-4.0Q1: +3.3+3.3Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: +0.5+0.5
Adelaide Lightning WSydney W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth Lynx W
#4
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A07/01
NBL W
Bendigo W
#5
L
40-51
40
51
-11
A10/01
NBL W
Sydney W
#6
L
27-38
27
38
-11
A17/01
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A20/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H28/01
NBL W
Geelong United W
#3
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H17/02
NBL W
Southside W
#1
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A24/02
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
45-48
45
48
-3
A02/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#2
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H09/11
NBL W
Geelong United W
#8
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A16/11
NBL W
77.6Avg total
37.3Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.939.577.3-1.640%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.238.276.4+0.043%-
Last 30 away (16)37.640.678.1-3.038%-
Last 10 (10)37.340.377.6-3.030%-
Last 5 (5)39.239.078.2+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.439.176.5-1.835%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)37.439.777.1-2.343%-
vs Weaker (6)39.840.280.0-0.350%-
This opponent (Sydney W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sydney WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#1
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A12/01
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#4
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H14/01
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#7
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#8
W
42-30
42
30
+12
H19/01
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
53-35
53
35
+18
H25/01
NBL W
Southside W
#1
W
45-42
45
42
+3
H18/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A25/02
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#4
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H03/11
NBL W
Southside W
#7
L
39-45
39
45
-6
A09/11
NBL W
Bendigo W
#1
L
36-56
36
56
-20
H13/11
NBL W
83.7Avg total
43.5Scored
40.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.238.577.7+0.853%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.939.780.6+1.256%-
Last 30 away (14)37.337.174.4+0.250%-
Last 10 (10)43.540.283.7+3.370%-
Last 5 (5)43.847.090.8-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)33.039.972.9-6.922%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)41.238.279.4+3.061%-
vs Weaker (3)46.035.781.7+10.3100%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 71.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.4 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.120.2
43.8%
46.9%40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.97.7
33.6%
32.2%23.1
🏀 Free throws12.88.4
65.6%
75.1%8.4
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydney Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney W: 84.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.122.8
56.9%
46.9%45.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.29.0
34.4%
32.2%27.0
🏀 Free throws15.011.6
77.3%
75.1%11.6
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Nov 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide Lightning W
LLLWWWWLLL
Sydney W
LLWLLWWWWL
#6
League position
#5
-6.7
Net rating
+6.7
89.5
Offensive rating
110.8
96.2
Defensive rating
104.1
46.0%
Effective FG%
54.8%
46.3%
Opp. effective FG%
49.2%
21.0%
Turnover %
18.3%
26.6%
Off. rebound %
30.6%
0.19
Free-throw rate
0.23
33.6%
3-point %
34.4%
57.7%
Assist %
66.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence89.5 · 110.8Defence96.2 · 104.1Shooting46.0% · 54.8%3-point %33.6% · 34.4%Ball care21.0% · 18.3%Off. rebounds26.6% · 30.6%Free throws0.19 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Adelaide Lightning W   ■ Sydney W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Adelaide Lightning W wins
5
Sydney W wins
DateGameScore
17/01/24Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W88-65
05/01/24Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W74-67
06/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W64-66
24/02/23Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W101-91
12/01/23Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W77-81
19/11/22Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W87-67
26/02/22Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W56-73
20/01/22Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W52-77
13/12/20Sydney W v Adelaide Lightning W86-60
28/11/20Adelaide Lightning W v Sydney W75-53
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/11/24AGeelong United W66-72 OT
09/11/24HPerth Lynx W78-92
02/11/24ABendigo W70-84
24/02/24ASouthside W74-60
17/02/24HGeelong United W70-61
28/01/24HCanberra Capitals W84-67
20/01/24ATownsville W90-75
17/01/24ASydney W65-88
10/01/24ABendigo W68-96
07/01/24APerth Lynx W68-84
Sydney Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/24HBendigo W71-90
09/11/24ASouthside W75-83
03/11/24HCanberra Capitals W102-85
25/02/24ATownsville W78-90
18/02/24HSouthside W78-81
25/01/24HSouthside W102-81
19/01/24HCanberra Capitals W90-65
17/01/24HAdelaide Lightning W88-65
14/01/24HPerth Lynx W87-84
12/01/24ASouthside W73-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLL0%
HomeL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game71.378.068.0
Allowed / game82.792.078.0
Point differential-11.3-14.0-10.0
Avg total154.0170.0146.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %33%0%50%
Sydney W
NBL W 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLL33%
HomeWL50%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game82.786.575.0
Allowed / game86.087.583.0
Point differential-3.3-1.0-8.0
Avg total168.7174.0158.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bendigo W550100%90.474.2+16.2
2 Perth Lynx W43175%89.582.8+6.8
3 Townsville W32167%81.374.0+7.3
4 Southside W42250%86.884.0+2.8
5 Geelong United W42250%74.583.0-8.5
6 Sydney W31233%82.786.0-3.3
7 Adelaide Lightning W3030%71.382.7-11.3
8 Canberra Capitals W4040%82.097.8-15.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide Lightning W2018162478
Sydney W1112171454
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